If the season ended today, Penn State would host Notre Dame in a College Football Playoff game in Beaver Stadium.
The first set of Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night and Penn State (7-1) is No. 6, the same ranking as the team has in this week’s AP Poll. The Nittany Lions are the No. 7 seed in the projected Playoff bracket, setting up the 7-10 matchup against the Fighting Irish (7-1).
Interestingly enough, Penn State is the third-ranked Big Ten team in the Top 25, checking in behind No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Ohio State and ahead of No. 8 Indiana. Despite being undefeated, the Hoosiers (9-0, 6-0) were penalized for schedule strength that’s thus far 82nd, per The Athletic’s Austin Mock. Penn State’s strength of schedule is 30th.
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Penn State is in a prime position, ahead of No. 7 Tennessee (7-1) and No. 9 BYU (8-0). The Nittany Lion’s body of work — highlighted by road wins at West Virginia, in overtime at USC and against Illinois, all stood out to the committee, said Warde Manuel, chair of the College Football Playoff selection committee. The fact Penn State lost in a close game to Ohio State also factored into this ranking, he said.
“It was a game that went back and forth, and obviously a game that could have gone the other way,” Manuel said.
Manuel also mentioned one Penn State player who caught the committee’s eye as they slotted the Nittany Lions ahead of Tennessee. Tennessee has a win against No. 11 Alabama, but also a more devastating loss to Arkansas (5-4).
“Tyler Warren is a dominating force on offense,” Manuel said. “And so I just think Penn State, in terms of their body of work, and what the committee saw in terms of their body of work that came to the ranking of Penn State at No. 6 and Tennessee at No. 7.”
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Penn State is projected to make the Playoff 85 percent of the time, per Mock. There’s also a 43 percent likelihood that Penn State will host a Playoff game.
The final ranking will be released on Dec. 8. Here’s what else to know about Penn State’s Playoff hopes with four games remaining in the regular season:
Penn State’s best-case scenario
Win out to go 11-1 and get help to punch a ticket to the Big Ten Championship Game. Penn State doesn’t control its own destiny after losing to Ohio State. If both Penn State and Ohio State (7-1, 4-1) finish 11-1, the Buckeyes hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Penn State. In that scenario, Ohio State would go to Indianapolis where Oregon (9-0, 6-0) likely awaits.
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If Penn State wins out to finish 11-1 — and gets some help via Ohio State and Indiana stumbling this month — there’s still a path to Indianapolis. Now, the likelihood of this happening isn’t favorable considering who both Indiana and Ohio State have left.
Indiana (9-0, 6-0) has thrown a wrench into what many people, myself included, believed would be a three-team Big Ten race. I didn’t think the Hoosiers would be one of those three teams. Indiana is one of the best stories in the sport this year and unlike Ohio State and Penn State, Curt Cignetti’s team has just three regular-season games remaining.
The head-to-head matchup between Ohio State and Indiana on Nov. 23 in Columbus is massive.
If Penn State, Ohio State and Indiana all finish 11-1, the Buckeyes still hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Penn State. At that point, the winner of Ohio State-Indiana (which would be Ohio State if they’re 11-1) would head to Indianapolis.
Ohio State’s remaining opponents are Purdue (1-7, 0-5), Northwestern (4-5, 2-4), Indiana (9-0, 6-0), Michigan (5-4, 3-3). Indiana’s remaining opponents are Michigan (5-4, 3-3), Ohio State (7-1, 4-1), Purdue (1-7, 0-5).
To make the conference championship, Penn State needs to win out, have Indiana lose twice and have Ohio State drop a second game either to Purdue, Northwestern or Michigan.
If you need to pick a team beyond Penn State to pull for it’s Michigan. Root for Michigan to topple Indiana and later for Michigan to beat Ohio State. It would help.
Penn State’s worst-case scenario
Going 9-3 — which the Nittany Lions have a 12 percent chance of doing per Mock’s model — likely spells the end of a Playoff bid. If Penn State loses two of the next four games to finish 9-3 it has a 2 percent chance to make the Playoff, per Mock.
Even if Penn State falters and loses once more to finish 10-2 it’s still likely making the Playoff. Per Mock, if Penn State goes 10-2 with losses to Ohio State and Washington, it has a 92 percent chance of making the field. If it goes 10-2 with losses to Ohio State and Minnesota, nothing changes in Mock’s model — the Nittany Lions still have a 92 percent chance to make the Playoff.
Position group that could negatively impact Penn State
Through five games in conference play Penn State’s four best wide receivers combined for 38 receptions and zero touchdowns. The lack of a No. 1 wide receiver continues to negatively impact this offense.
Tight end Tyler Warren has been Drew Allar’s top target, but beyond Warren the Ohio State game was full of images of wide receivers who couldn’t create separation once again.
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4 players who could spoil Penn State’s Playoff bid
1. Washington QB Will Rogers: The senior started 40 games at Mississippi State before transferring to Washington. That’s notable considering how ramped up the Beaver Stadium crowd will be Saturday night. Rogers completed 71.7 percent of his passes this season for 2,284 yards with 13 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. His top target, wide receiver Denzel Boston, leads the Big Ten with nine receiving touchdowns.
2. Washington RB Jonah Coleman: Franklin referred to Coleman this week as a “big, thick back; hard to bring down.” Coleman rushed for 100-plus yards in five of nine games. He’s coming off a 23-carry, 104-yard, two-touchdown performance against USC.
3. Minnesota QB Max Brosmer: P.J. Fleck went to the transfer portal in the offseason and added Brosmer from New Hampshire, who has become one of the Big Ten’s better quarterbacks. He’s completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 1,989 yards with 13 touchdowns to four interceptions. The Gophers won the last four in a row and play Rutgers on Saturday.
4. Maryland WR Tai Felton: Quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. has attempted 313 passes, second most in the Big Ten only behind USC’s Miller Moss. Felton, a senior, has been his go-to guy and leads the Big Ten in receptions (73) and yards (907). Maryland could have a chance to spoil Penn State’s season in Beaver Stadium over Thanksgiving weekend.
Who to root for this weekend
Of course, Penn State has to bounce back at home for the White Out game against Washington (5-4, 3-3). Kick is at 8 p.m. on Peacock. There have been countless conversations from players and James Franklin this week about not allowing Ohio State to beat them twice.
Penn State also needs to start rooting for Indiana and Ohio State to lose. Pull for Michigan. Take a deep breath and understand this is only temporary. Cheer for the Wolverines to beat Indiana (3:30 p.m. Saturday). That would give the Hoosiers one loss heading into their idle week.
Is there any kind of magic with this Purdue team that can upset Ohio State this Saturday? Probably not, but keep an eye on it at noon just in case.
(Photo: Dan Rainville / USA Today via Imagn Images)
