Why Oilers prospect Max Wanner is a darkhorse for 2024-25 NHL debut

Max Wanner is 21, an AHL defenceman coming off a substantial rookie season, and buried on the Edmonton Oilers’ NHL depth chart.

A case for Wanner to play in the NHL during the 2024-25 season is difficult. He is behind significant NHL and AHL depth, experience, success and draft pedigree.

But Wanner does have one important thing going for him: results.

The eye test

The first discussion about Wanner is his draft position.

Chosen in the seventh round of the 2021 pandemic draft, Wanner (like many prospects that season) was dealt a tough hand in impressing scouts. He played in just 17 WHL games that season, and the in-game impact he might have had on scouts was wiped out due to the unusual nature of the campaign.

It’s fair to say Wanner was miscast as a seventh-round selection based on what has come since. His game has an edge that current Oilers management seeks in young players.

A WHL scout told me a couple of years ago about Wanner’s impact in the junior league.

“He’s long and rangy and plays with a miserable bite,” the scout said. “To me, he has all the markings of a guy who gets an NHL shot at some point and will sink or swim based on his ability to keep up with the pace of it. Given how harsh he is to play against, I don’t mind his odds.”

That quote is from 2023 spring, in the months before Wanner arrived in the AHL. Everything in his game at the AHL level rhymes with that quote, and another gem from the same scout offered further indication of a possible future.

“The other frame of reference I’ll give you is just how massively improved he is from four years ago,” the scout said. “Jump after jump after jump in terms of competency. Where does it end? Who knows. But his trajectory is still rising.”

The math test

This summer, I ranked Wanner the No. 4 prospect in the Oilers’ system, an unheard-of slot for a pure shutdown defender. The last Oilers shutdown defenceman to warrant that kind of ranking was Matt Greene over 20 years ago. Greene went on to a fine NHL career, which may well be Wanner’s future.

There’s very little math available for AHL defencemen, but there are some clues.

Wanner played a lot during his rookie season, paired first with veteran puck mover Cam Dineen and later with top-10 draft pick (2019) Philip Broberg. At season’s end, Wanner was estimated to have second-pairing minutes for the team (including some penalty-killing time).

Here are the even-strengh goal percentages for each regular on the Condors blue line in 2023-24.

These numbers are wildly encouraging for Wanner, who was an AHL rookie in 2023-24. He made the team and played a regular role from the beginning of the season. He helped outscore opponents at a higher rate than most of his fellow Bakersfield defencemen.

He was a nasty defender and noticeable in a good way. Coverage issues involved the usual mistakes of youth, but (importantly) Wanner continued to develop as the season progressed.

Through 20 years of observing young players in the AHL, it seems there is a spike in performance that occurs in the second half of each season. In the case of Wanner, the progress shown in even-strength percentage after the midway point of his season suggests he improved and learned during the season.

Wanner played 68 games in the AHL during 2023-24. In the first 34 games, his even-strength goal differential was 22-26 (46 percent).

In his final 34 games, the even-strength percentage was 65 (30-16), a significant improvement.

The math matches the eye test.

Young defencemen do not develop in a straight line. Wanner could struggle in year two and spend two full seasons after last year in the minors. His arrows, the things we can measure, indicate he is heading in a good direction.

The competition

The Oilers are locked and loaded for a long run in pursuit of the Stanley Cup, but the organization has more holes than an average strong contender for the title.

Two areas that should be considered possible weaknesses? Right-handed defence and rugged players who can deliver punishment.

Wanner is both of those things.

The RH depth chart as summer begins to fade in Edmonton (the leaves are turning and the birds are beginning to fly south) includes some question marks.

Evan Bouchard is an impact player in all areas and a major positive during five-on-five and power-play time. After that, uncertainty.

The second RH defenceman on the roster could be Broberg or Cody Ceci — both will be expected to play the entire season behind Bouchard on the depth chart.

Injuries can open the door for opportunity.

After the top three, Joshua Brown brings grit and toughness, but his coverage ability (based on his established career levels) is not strong. Puck IQ’s numbers suggest Brown will get crushed against elites, meaning he is strictly a third-pairing option. That makes his upside limited in the organization, perhaps best suited to a No. 7 blueliner.

Troy Stecher is a puck-mover with some two-way ability but is not considered a ruffian in the corners and in front of the net. His Puck IQ totals over the years are more encouraging than Brown’s, but he is not a lock to succeed in a prominent role.

AHL veterans like Phil Kemp should also be considered ahead of Wanner heading into camp.

Bottom line

The arrows for Wanner are positive. The organization is on him as a future NHL defenceman.

Wanner’s draft number is deceiving. He has performed far above that level since his draft day. In this way, he is similar to Edmonton’s defencemen from the 2015 draft (Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear and John Marino) who outperformed their respective draft numbers handsomely and emerged as bona fide NHL players.

Wanner is a freight train, and the team’s areas of weakness matching his strengths (rugged, filthy, defensively aware) may mean he’ll be in Edmonton as an NHL player this coming season.

Not surprisingly, no player from the seventh round of the 2020 draft has played in an NHL game to date.

(Photo: Jay Calderon / The Desert Sun / USA Today)