Why linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard are the key to the Bills' playoff success

The Bills are back to the AFC Divisional round for a fifth straight year after thoroughly dismantling the Broncos on Sunday. They are now only one win shy of making it to the AFC Championship game for the first time since the 2020 season.

But to get there, the Bills will have to defeat the only team that beat them by more than three points this season — the Ravens. But before we dive into this week’s game, what can we learn from the Broncos film that can carry over into the following game?

After studying the Bills All-22, here’s what stood out.

Why Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard may be the key to the Bills’ playoff run

The Bills put together an exquisite defensive performance against the Broncos, led by some in-game pivoting from defensive coordinator Bobby Babich. While it helped quell some concerns over that side of the ball, it wasn’t dissimilar from some standout games they’ve had throughout the season. The key to their year has been inconsistency in three areas — run defense, allowing explosive plays, and most recently, third down defense. The Bills have to prove their showing against the Broncos can be carried throughout the rest of the postseason and put up resistance to good offensive opponents. However, based on their individual outputs, there may be a direct correlation between the type of performance we saw from the Bills against the Broncos and the performance of linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano.

The Bills have gotten average to below-average linebacking for most of the season, with some spike weeks here and there. For the most part, along with safety, it’s been one of the weakest position groups on the roster. Bernard was excellent for three weeks near the beginning of the season but has had his share of struggles since suffering a pectoral injury. Milano had the longest layoff from game action of anyone, from early October 2023 until Dec. 1, 2024, and had some rust early in his return. Bernard and Milano only played four games together by the end of the regular season, which plays into some of the uneven results over the last month-plus of the year. But part of what made the Bills’ defensive showing against the Broncos so impressive is how well Bernard and Milano worked together and separately in their specific roles.

Milano has been on an upward trajectory since the second half of the Rams game, but definitely in the Lions game before he exited after 46 snaps with a groin injury. The Jets game was another reason for optimism with Milano, with his instincts taking center stage. But the Broncos game showed his value on all three downs, as he flashed more sustained speed than in previous weeks. His role as a quarterback spy who lined up at the line of scrimmage on several passing situations helped push him forward to his best grade of the year, but he also proved to be an asset in run-defending throughout the contest. Based on what we’ve seen over his last two outings against the Lions and Jets, Milano’s positive showing was a continuing trend. He has been a definitive upgrade to what the Bills had at outside linebacker before his return.

But while Milano’s trajectory had been pointing to him having a game like this one, one of the significant reasons for the Bills taking a step forward on defense Sunday was the play of Bernard, their middle linebacker. Enduring a year marred by three different injuries, the flash plays from Bernard’s 2023 season haven’t been prevalent in 2024. The linebacker was a bit inconsistent in run defending last year, and that carried over into the 2024 season, leading to uneven individual results. Since Bernard suffered an ankle injury against the Titans in Week 7, Bernard has carried just a 2.44 GPA through the end of the regular season — a below-average mark. From a season-long perspective, only three Bills players have a GPA below that mark. But in the Broncos game, Bernard looked like the standout linebacker we saw from Weeks 5 through 7 — before the ankle injury. He was anticipating the play to avoid blocks in the run game. Bernard’s performance in coverage to take away passing lanes was also noticeable.

When the Milano and Bernard duo is playing as well as it did uniformly, it can help alleviate so much of the defensive concern the Bills had coming into the playoffs. They employ a defensive scheme that depends so much on the linebacker position, and when the Bills had some defensive standout seasons, it was when Milano was healthy and Tremaine Edmunds played at a consistently good level. They can impact an opponent’s running game, they can disrupt passing lanes over the middle of the field, they are usually the first line of defense against screens and, when used correctly, can be an asset in blitzing the quarterback. And against the Ravens in Week 4, the Bills easily had their worst collective showing from their two starting linebackers — Dorian Williams and Baylon Spector — of the 2024 season. Should the Bills get the type of game from Milano and Bernard that they did against the Broncos moving forward, that raises the overall ceiling on their defensive outlook for the rest of the postseason.

Spencer Brown’s performance has been a big reason for the Bills’ offensive line dominance. t(Tina MacIntyre-Yee / USA Today)

Spencer Brown has been the revelation of the season

There were a lot of standouts from the Broncos outing, but after watching the film, right tackle Spencer Brown was the best player on the field for the Bills. For those who have watched and read about the team intently this season, this is not a new development. Brown, after a big step forward in his third season in 2023, has even improved upon that in 2024. Just how good has Brown been this season? Since Week 7, Brown has carried a 3.73 GPA and has accrued five ‘A’ grades. He has even rivaled quarterback Josh Allen, with the franchise quarterback having a 3.76 GPA over that same stretch of games. Over the last two weeks, Brown has arrived second on the team for the season-long GPA. How has he turned the corner to be this good in 2024?

He is extremely physical, pairing it with outstanding athleticism for his size and length and the timing necessary to pull off some of the powerful blocks he does. He routinely puts pass-rushers on the ground and, like left tackle Dion Dawkins, has a keen sense of when the defender is leaning on him to rip down the player for an immediate win. As a run blocker, he can pull with speed and power, he can control his block the way he wants, and he can knock defenders down on the second level. Most weeks, the only negative marks he gets are when a false start or a holding penalty gets called on him. Straight up, in one-on-one situations — which the Bills leave him in the vast majority of the time — few pass rushers have gotten by him this season. With the magnifying glass of the playoffs, he’s starting to get more attention now, but Brown has gone from an above-average starter to one of the best right tackles in the NFL. And if you’re looking for one of the key ingredients to the Bills having one of the best offensive lines in the league this year, Brown’s step forward might top the list.

Players with 15 or fewer snaps:

FB Reggie Gilliam (13), DT Jordan Phillips (8), RB Ray Davis (7), DT Austin Johnson (6), QB Mitchell Trubisky (5), TE Quintin Morris (5), C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (5), T Tylan Grable (5), DE Javon Solomon (3), DT Quinton Jefferson (3), CB Ja’Marcus Ingram (1), LB Dorian Williams (0), LB Joe Andreessen (0), LB Edefuan Ulofoshio (0), S Cole Bishop (0)

**Minimum 200 snaps

How the standards work

When the All-22 film becomes available, we’ll go through and watch every player on every play as many times as necessary to assess letter grades. It is a subjective analysis, and it’s important to note we do not know the play calls and full responsibilities. The grades stem from technique, effort and presumed liability.

The study accounts only for players who take a snap on offense or defense. Players with fewer than 15 snaps — unless they significantly impact the game — will not factor into weekly rankings. The grades range from an ‘A’ (a perfect 4.00 GPA) to ‘F’ (0.00 GPA). There is no such thing as an ‘A+’ in this grading system. Season-long grades will be tallied and documented, with a single game’s grade weighted based on how much the player was on the field in a given week.

(Top photo of Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano: Gregory Fisher / Imagn Images)