There’s nothing that signifies a high-profile free agent signing has been a bust more than when that player becomes a healthy scratch for his new team by the 36th game of the season.
Such has been the marriage between Jeff Skinner and the Edmonton Oilers, a union that seemed perfect months ago when the team heavily courted the veteran winger to be a sniper next to Leon Draisaitl.
The match couldn’t have been more off from nearly the onset, and a possible breaking point was reached after weeks of unravelling when Skinner was held out of the lineup for Sunday’s 5-3 road loss to the Anaheim Ducks.
Skinner getting scratched was a long time coming, the culmination of mixing like oil and water when next to Draisaitl or Connor McDavid, losing his coach’s trust for a top-six role and then rarely being given chances to regain it.
The player and team heading toward splitsville before the March 7 trade deadline feels more likely than ever given what’s happened this season and because Skinner’s on a one-year deal.
But a divorce in a form of a trade isn’t the sensible solution here for either party. The aftermath from the shotgun wedding hasn’t gone well so far, but there’s time for the partnership to be salvaged so the contract can be fulfilled closer to the way it was intended.
From Skinner’s perspective, let’s start with the obvious: He must rebuild his value before he prepares to go to market as a free agent for the second straight offseason.
After being bought out by Buffalo last summer, it probably won’t behoove Skinner to accept a trade to a lesser team – perhaps one out of the playoff picture – as he eyes his next contract. He’d likely be better suited to invoke his no-movement clause if the Oilers wanted to deal him. That way the 32-year-old could compete in the playoffs for the first time in his lengthy NHL career and bank on potting a few timely goals as a contributor on a long run.
That’s the best-case scenario for Skinner even if it’s difficult to envision the pathway for that outcome. Really, there’s nowhere to go but up for him.
So poor has the fit been between Skinner and the Oilers that the winger didn’t even make it through the first homestand in October before he was demoted out of the top six. He’s only been back in that role in the most dire of circumstances, and often not even then.
Skinner got some time with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman when Connor McDavid was sidelined with his ankle injury and stayed put in favour of RNH for parts of two games upon McDavid’s return. However, he then struggled to get off a fourth line that didn’t really exist when the Oilers played with 11 forwards sans Hyman and Viktor Arvidsson.
It’s become clear that coach Kris Knoblauch likes the combination of forechecking and puck-retrieving provided by Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin more than what Skinner can offer. Even Kasperi Kapanen’s speed is more desired.
Skinner’s ice time has been on a downward trajectory for seven weeks. He has six goals and 12 points in 35 games. The Oilers have been outscored 22-12 at five-on-five in the 418 minutes Skinner’s been on the ice in that situation, per Natural Stat Trick. That’s a 35.3 percent goal share, marginally better than Derek Ryan for the worst rate on the team.
It’s not like scratching Skinner came out of the blue.
Still, this might not have happened if the Oilers weren’t on their moms trip. Coaches like getting every player into a game on such occasions whenever possible. Ryan, the player who took Skinner’s place in the lineup, dressed just once in four games once Arvidsson returned from an injury before Sunday. That inclusion for the Dec. 22 win over Ottawa came only because Nugent-Hopkins was sick and couldn’t play.
Skinner was the clear choice to sit on Sunday.
Knoblauch has repeatedly praised those in his top six; no one was coming out of the lineup from that group.
Adam Henrique hasn’t been particularly good this season and had maybe his worst game of the season on Saturday afternoon, when he was minus-4 in an overtime loss in Los Angeles. But there was no chance he was being scratched considering the lack of depth at centre and because the Oilers were making their first trip to Anaheim since Henrique was acquired after seven seasons with the Ducks.
Kapanen, Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown all kill penalties. Corey Perry has outplayed Skinner.
Perhaps this gives Skinner the shot in the arm he needs to be more engaged and noticeable.
Jeff Skinner’s ice time and linemate quality have steadily declined over his Oilers tenure. (Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)
Granted, there’s a catch-22 situation at play here. The Oilers want more out of Skinner, but he’s not going to be able to do that from the fourth line with Janmark or Ryan as his centre.
Understandably, the coaching staff doesn’t want to upset the apple cart too much within the top six, but avenues exist to find Skinner more premium ice time. Perry routinely gets a shift or two in a game with McDavid and Draisaitl. Why can’t Skinner be afforded that same luxury?
This is a career 11.7 percentage shooter in all situations before this season, someone with six 30-goal campaigns. A couple more high-quality looks could do him and the team wonders.
That’s what the Oilers should bank on here as they keep him in the fold. That’s what’s in it for them.
Plus, the Oilers lack assets – moveable roster players, prospects and draft picks – to facilitate trades even though GM Stan Bowman has some flexibility because he’s worked to accrue cap space most of the season. The point is the Oilers could be a bit handcuffed and might be able to swing only a trade or two.
Bowman has indicated he’d like to acquire a defenceman of some calibre by March 7. It’s clear the Oilers need some a jolt in the bottom six up front, too, ideally in the form of a right-handed centre. That’s already two players added to the fray.
Provided Evander Kane, who remains on the roster, returns to the lineup in good health, the Oilers should be getting a built-in top-six boost. They’re better served upgrading on defence and at depth forward, while trying to get Skinner motivated to be the elite scorer they thought they were getting – as he’s usually has been in his career – when they signed him a $3 million contract in July.
As terrible as the fit has been between Skinner and the Oilers, neither is bound to find greener grass in the weeks ahead.
Skinner leaving has all the makings of sideways move at best and more likely a step back at a crucial point in his career. He has control thanks to that no-move clause. The Oilers have enough cover up front if Skinner doesn’t get going and will have a tough time finding someone with his track offensive record and potential anyway.
Skinner and the Oilers could be stuck together for a few more months. That seems like a bad thing given what’s transpired.
Think a little harder, however, and it’s really not.
(Top photo: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
