As RedState reported, Iran launched a large-scale air attack on Israel using drones and ballistic missiles. It represented the biggest escalation from the Islamic Republic against the Jewish state in history, which has long used proxy militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen to do its dirty work. This is different, and the response from Israel and possibly the United States will be different, with reports circulating that Israel will retaliate against Iran regardless of whether lives are lost in the current attack.
READ: Iranian Drones Heading Toward Israel, Israel and Jordan Close Airspace
How will all of this unfold? Those with a heavy isolationist bent are already predicting doom and shouting “World War III” at the top of their lungs. Yet, there’s every reason to believe that Iran has severely overplayed its hand.
Let’s game this out, taking some of the most hysterical suggestions at face value. For example, what are the chances this turns into a “regional war” being fought by multiple state powers against Israel? The answer to that is almost zero. Most of the Arab nations hate the Iranian regime and want to see it falter. Sure enough, instead of offering support to Iran, the Saudis and Jordanians immediately pledged to shoot down any Iranian projectiles and aircraft that violated their airspace.
There is no reason to believe any other nation in the Middle East will join Iran in a hot war against Israel. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, one of Iran’s only true allies in the region, has no capacity to do anything but hold what territory it still has following its civil war. The rest of the Arab nations are mostly aligned against Iran, even if not explicitly. Yes, they make a lot of noise in Arabic about the Palestinian issue, but that’s for domestic consumption. When push comes to shove, they aren’t putting their necks on the line for Iran.
So what happens if Israel and Iran engage in a more protracted war? From the jump, we know Israel isn’t going to invade Iran nor does Iran have any ability to invade Israel. That means an air war is the only real possibility, and one that Israel would easily win. Iran’s air force is multiple generations behind. We are talking about less than 200 very outdated fighters, with ancient F-14s and Mig-29s being the pinnacle of their technology. American-made F-35s and even older F-15s would have a field day. Does Iran want to engage in such a fight? I tend to doubt it given they know they’d lose everything they have. I bet they want their attack to be the end of this, but Israel may not give them a choice.
That’s where Iran has likely overplayed its hand. The Islamic nation could now see many of its most important strategic sites hit, including its nuclear facilities. In return, they can only fling low-tech drones and missiles over at Israel, most of which will never make it through. The status quo of its proxy militias launching largely ineffective attacks will also continue.
Overall, though, Iran could be left significantly weakened after this, with other nations in the region looking to capitalize. This isn’t World War III. It’s not even a regional conflict at this point, and the combined air power of Israel, the United States, and the United Kingdom represents a huge technological advantage over anything Iran can put into the sky. The Islamic Republic has officially pushed too far to try to save face, and they’ll now pay the price.
