The story of Geno Smith isn’t finished yet. The best may be yet to come as he begins a new chapter with the Las Vegas Raiders after being traded from the Seattle Seahawks over the weekend.
Smith made the rare ascent from being labeled a bust to becoming a good quarterback. His numbers may look just better than average on paper, but the film shows that Smith did a remarkable job of elevating a Seattle team that would be a disastrous ecosystem for most quarterbacks. Smith is 34 years old but only has 83 starts in his career after flaming out as a second-round pick for the New York Jets. The Raiders traded a third-round pick for Smith to reunite him with Pete Carroll, the coach who gave him a chance at redemption in Seattle.
The Seattle Times’ Bob Condotta reported that the Seahawks offered Smith a two-year deal in the $40-45 million per year range, but Smith didn’t counteroffer and instead requested a trade. If he gets a similar extension from the Raiders, his average per year would rank in the 12th-15th range among quarterbacks; he’ll likely drop if 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy gets a contract extension this offseason. Getting paid in that range is a bargain for a quarterback of Smith’s skills.
2024 season, pure dropbacks (non-play action, non-screen, non-garbage time)
Geno Smith:
8th in success rate
13th in EPA per dropback
3rd in on-target rate
5th in completion percentage over expectation
1st in explosive pass rate— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) March 8, 2025
The national perception of Smith — or that of fans who haven’t watched him closely — is that he’s at most a middle-tier quarterback, or that he isn’t a needle mover. Maybe his time with the Jets is hard to scrub from the minds of the masses. The film shows a quarterback with upper-tier arm talent and the ability to mitigate pressure and overcome his circumstances. He played for two offensive coordinators in the last three seasons in Seattle: Shane Waldron and Ryan Grubb. After Carroll was fired by the Seahawks, Waldron was hired by the Bears to run their offense but was fired after just nine games. There was optimism for Grubb, who was hired out of the University of Washington, but he struggled to adapt his offense to the pro game and was fired this offseason.
GO DEEPER
After adding Geno Smith, Raiders could still go after a QB in NFL Draft
Despite having two failed play callers in the league, Smith still threw for 12,226 yards and 71 touchdowns to 35 interceptions in his three seasons as a starter. Fifteen of those interceptions were from this last season, but more on that later. The Seahawks surrounded Smith with a talented trio of receivers (DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba), but they had one of the worst offensive lines in the league in Smith’s tenure as a starter. ESPN’s Mina Kimes highlighted this key stat: According to Next Gen Stats, over the last three seasons, Smith faced the highest quick pressure rate (18.1 percent) — pressure in less than 2.5 seconds — of any full-time starter in the league. Pressures are often caused by quarterbacks holding on to the ball, but quick pressures are often the offensive line’s fault.
Week 6, 12:03 remaining in the first quarter, third-and-5
On this play against the 49ers, the Seahawks slid protection to the left with the running back chipping the defensive end to that side, meaning the right guard and right tackle had true one-on-one pass blocks.
Right guard Anthony Bradford (No. 75) and right tackle Stone Forsythe (No. 72) were beaten by inside moves immediately after the snap. Smith hit the last step of his drop and was looking downfield to Lockett, who was breaking open on a crossing route on third-and-5.
As Smith was throwing the ball, he was hit by both pass rushers and another pass rusher coming from his left. The ball sailed and was intercepted.
Smith was hit by a pass rusher on seven of his 15 interceptions last season. He certainly forced some passes, but he typically takes care of the ball. Last season, according to Pro Football Focus, he had a 2.7 percent turnover-worthy play rate, ranking 27th among quarterbacks with at least 150 attempts. He didn’t put the ball in harm’s way often but had bad turnover luck. His biggest issue was trying to throw the ball when the pass rush was barreling down on him. The Raiders’ offensive line improved as the season progressed in 2024, but their top priority should be getting Smith decent pass protection.
Smith is a high-level pocket passer. He can make every throw with consistent, precise ball placement and has the arm strength to drive the ball downfield with velocity and distance. In 2022 and 2023, he ranked in the top five in PFF’s big-time throw rate metric. He ranked 13th last season while having the worst pass protection that he’s had in Seattle. He didn’t have the time and space in the pocket to throw the ball downfield as often.
Week 7, 0:10 remaining in the second quarter, third-and-15
With 10 seconds remaining before halftime against the Falcons, the Seahawks made an aggressive decision to go for a touchdown rather than set up for a field goal. The play call was a deep post to Metcalf.
The Seahawks kept two blockers in the backfield to help with chip blocks on the Falcons’ edge rusher. Atlanta only rushed three, so technically, they had seven blockers for three rushers.
Despite the numbers advantage, Smith still had to step up against pressure and reset.
The Falcons were protecting the sidelines, so both safeties dropped to the numbers. The idea was that the offense would not likely attack the middle of the field with only 10 seconds left and if they did, the safeties would have time to converge on the pass.
However, Smith fired off a rope that traveled about 40 yards in the air into the end zone for a touchdown.
GENO TO DK.
Clutch TD with 4 seconds left in the half.
📺: #SEAvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/uU09XQYxDN— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2024
Smith also completed a similar pass in almost the same situation against the Rams in week 9.
Geno finds JSN again… this time for the TD!
📺: #LARvsSEA on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/Koazz6d5EW— NFL (@NFL) November 3, 2024
There are at least three or four jaw-dropping throws in every one of Smith’s games. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the league at fitting the ball into tight windows against zone or man coverage. From 2022 to 2024, Smith was fourth in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) among quarterbacks with at least 320 plays. CPOE is a metric that adjusts a QB’s completion percentage for the degree of difficulty that they attempt.
Week 8, 10:05 remaining in the fourth quarter, first-and-10
On this play against the Bills, the Seahawks had a four verticals concept against Buffalo’s cover 2 zone.
Smith looked to throw the seam to tight end A.J. Barner (No. 88) but had to layer the ball over defensive back Cam Lewis (No. 39) and inside linebacker Baylon Spector (No. 54).
Smith threw a perfect ball to Barner that protected him from a big hit — he does an excellent job of protecting his receivers with his ball placement. His ability to fit the ball into tight windows will benefit Raiders star tight end Brock Bowers, who should get 20-30 catches on stick and hitch routes alone.
It may seem surprising to heap so much praise on Smith, but he’s an impressive quarterback on film and dealt with an adverse situation in Seattle. His pocket toughness and ability to throw off-platform against pressure and break the pocket kept the Seattle offense afloat. Even at his age, he’s still nimble enough to be a threat with his legs. No one will confuse him with Lamar Jackson, but he rushed for 917 yards and 10 touchdowns in his three seasons as a starter.
Red zone interceptions were a problem last season for Smith. He tried to force too many passes, particularly when he should have just taken some sacks rather than try to throw the ball while getting hit.
Though the Raiders seem intent on getting a No. 1 receiver in the offseason, the more prudent path could be to continue adding talent to their offensive line. Not just to improve their pass protection but to pair Smith with an efficient running game. The Seahawks ranked 26th in rushing success rate from 2022 to 2024. Their inability to run the ball put too much of the load on Smith.
The Raiders’ run game slightly improved toward the end of last season despite finishing 31st in rushing success rate. The hope is that they can improve as some of their young offensive lineman like Jackson Powers-Johnson and D.J. Glaze progress with experience but the Raiders shouldn’t just settle. They should be active in trying to add star power to their offensive line, either through free agency or the draft. Though the temptation to draft running back Ashton Jeanty with the sixth pick will be strong, picking a tackle like Missouri’s Armand Membou — who could play on the right side — could solidify the Raiders’ offensive line.
In Smith’s three seasons as a starter, the Seahawks rushed the ball at the 22nd-lowest rate in the red zone. An efficient and explosive running game could mitigate some of his red zone issues. Running backs can’t fix bad run games, but they can definitely bolster it. For example, Saquon Barkley couldn’t fix the Giants’ offense, but he took the Eagles’ run game to the next level. Additionally, this is one of the deepest running back drafts that we’ve seen in a while. There could be four to six starters that come out of this draft.
GO DEEPER
Chip Kelly’s Raiders offense will look different from those of his previous NFL stints
Give Smith decent pass protection and a strong running game. We could see him take his game to another level, even at his age. Another question will be how offensive coordinator Chip Kelly fares in his second stint in the NFL. His offense looked much more “pro-style” and tailored at Ohio State. Kelly will design a creative run game, but will he be able to assemble a sophisticated pass game for Smith?
There is still work to be done to surround Smith with the help he needs to excel, but Smith definitely raises the floor for the Raiders. The offense’s ceiling will be determined by how much the line improves.
(Top photo: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)
