Why Adam Henrique's struggles are a troubling development for the Edmonton Oilers

For Edmontonians, a trip to California is a delightful way to break up a long, cold winter. Warm temperatures, shopping, major sporting events and incredible destinations like Disneyland and Universal Studios.

For Edmonton Oilers centre Adam Henrique, the post-Christmas visit to Los Angeles was a professional step into an elevator shaft. In weekend games against the Kings and Ducks, Henrique went 0-3 goals five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick, and looked especially slow in the Saturday game.

Henrique’s 2024-25 season has been uneven, and the underlying numbers suggest more bad days could be on the horizon.

How bad is it?

The indicators

The first point of fact is that Henrique is an above-average NHL skater, according to NHL Edge.  Specifically, his top skating speed is in the 78th percentile and he’s a little better than average in speed bursts.

Henrique is 34, and coming off a few days away over the Christmas break, so it’s no surprise the wheels didn’t turn in a normal fashion. Ironically, his foot speed was materially better the following day in Anaheim.

Henrique is being asked to fill a vital, foundational role for this year’s Oilers. The third-line centre takes important faceoffs, is central to penalty killing, outscoring depth opponents and moving up the depth chart successfully as required.

Entering the New Year’s Eve game versus the Utah Hockey Club, Henrique was most often part of three distinct lines:

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The Oilers’ best No. 3 line is Henrique between Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark. The trio is outscoring at a 56 percent rate, and full value for the edge based on expected goals. That line is giving Edmonton a significant edge at five-on-five outscoring.

Winning versus the soft parade

Puck IQ gives us a chance to look at Henrique’s performances against players of varying quality at five-on-five.

This season, Henrique has struggled versus elites (38 percent Dangerous Fenwick, similar to expected goals) but is running heavy luck (7-1 goals) that will surely regress.

Against mid-level competition, Henrique’s lines have outscored opponents 2-8 with a 46 percent goal share. This is an area where his line has to flourish, and in a smaller sample (just 136 minutes) things are not going well.

The overall thrust of his time against elites and mid-level talent suggests heavy luck arrows and a shot share well under 50 percent.

Against the soft parade, Henrique and his linemates hum: 54 percent Dangerous Fenwick, 5-4 goals.

The naked truth from Puck IQ: Astonishing luck from TOI versus elites is driving the positive goal share from the Henrique line.

Regression will come, and the game against Los Angeles implies justice may come soon.

Odds and sods

Henrique is winning 55 percent of his faceoffs at five-on-five and 49 percent on the penalty kill. Both represent quality results.

He and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins lead Edmonton forwards in ice time short-handed, both men surrendering an average of six goals per 60 minutes in the game state. Henrique’s total ranks him No. 40 among NHL forwards who have killed penalties for more than 50 minutes this season.

Scoring

Henrique doesn’t spend much time on the power play, so his boxcar numbers are shy compared to the big gun centres on the Oilers (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl).

He does have success offensively, or at least he did until this year.

Henrique scored 2.04 points per 60 in 2021-22, 1.94 in 2022-23 and 1.86 in 2023-24.

This season? A baffling 0.98 points per 60.

That number should recover and perhaps offset some of the plummeting on-ice goal share regression that is surely coming over the next few months.

His best scoring partner is Janmark. Henrique is at 1.50 points per 60 with the Swede this season, and that number stretches to 1.69 points per 60 if we include last year’s run together.

Including both seasons at five-on-five, the goal share for the two men when on the ice is 60 percent.

This may shock you

Entering the game versus Utah, Henrique has been money when playing with McDavid or Draisaitl:

All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick (over two seasons)

There are some interesting numbers here. Henrique has performed well in significant minutes with Draisaitl and posted impact offence in a very brief time with McDavid.

Henrique’s totals with Nugent-Hopkins over portions of two seasons indicate both are talented players but don’t drive offensive results. Both need an elite player like McDavid or Draisaitl to make a real difference offensively.

Consistency

One more way to look at Henrique’s season is to divide it into two pieces. Is he going the wrong way?

In the first 18 games of this season, Henrique averaged 11:55 minutes per game at five-on-five, scoring 0.84 points per 60 and delivering a 50 percent goal share with a 54 percent expected goal share.

That’s an impressive start.

In the most recent 18 games, Henrique averaged 11:53 minutes per game at five-on-five, scoring 1.12 points per 60, with a 54 percent goal share, but a 38 percent expected goal share.

The drop-off in expected goals came in the second 18-game stretch.

In the period around Christmas when coach Kris Knoblauch moved Janmark to the fourth line in order to find a centre replacement for Derek Ryan, Henrique’s performance suffered.

In just 35 minutes away from Janmark during that period, via Natural Stat Trick, Henrique was outscored 3-0 in goals and landed an anemic 44 percent expected goal share.

Summary

So far this season, Henrique has been useful across all game states. However, there’s some concern about the underlying numbers. Here’s what we know:

• The five-on-five goal percentage (52 percent entering the Utah game) towers over the expected (46 percent) and that includes the disastrous trip to California. Regression is a slow train coming.
• Henrique is best with Janmark (and Brown). The Oilers would do well to keep that tandem together this season.
• Henrique’s luck versus elites obscures a significant concern: His line is 38 percent against elites, 46 percent versus mid-level talent. A true third line, one that can win Stanley, has to deliver more against the heart of the order.
• Henrique, like Nugent-Hopkins, is unable to push the river offensively as the best player on a line.
• Henrique’s GA per 60 (1.82) sparkles, and the coaching staff rewards goal suppression heavily. If the GA per 60 falls to expected (2.59), Knoblauch may tweak his deployment of the veteran.
• Henrique is slightly above average as an NHL skater. He does have games, like the one against the Kings, where he appears to have lost a step. Henrique is 34; those games will become more common as he ages.
• The most similar player to Henrique is Nugent-Hopkins. Switching roles to freshen things on the first and third line may be an option for the coaching staff if a losing streak sets in.
• The Oilers are trying to win the Stanley Cup and are running veterans over youth at every possible turn. Expect Henrique to remain in his role as long as wins are coming and his line is above 50 percent outscoring at five-on-five.

On Tuesday night against Utah, Knoblauch moved Henrique down the depth chart to the fourth line.

As part of a trio with Jeff Skinner and a right-wing rotation that included Hyman and Corey Perry, Henrique enjoyed a strong game with a 5-1 edge in shots and strong play on the penalty kill. The star of the game was his regular winger, Connor Brown, who moved up the depth chart and flourished.

Henrique’s struggles at No. 3 centre could mean more work on the fourth line, but it’s more likely we see Janmark-Henrique-Brown as a checking unit in the days to come. Henrique’s play of late aside, he remains the best option for the role.

(Photo: Stephen R. Sylvanie / Imagn Images)