Which Oilers have the most to gain from the Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway offer sheets?

The Edmonton Oilers are in the final hours of contemplation in the saga that involves young players Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg.

St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong picked a perfect time to drop the rare dual offer sheet, with Oilers general manager Stan Bowman just settling into a brand new job and with very little wiggle room under the cap.

Matching or not matching, Edmonton will have issues entering training camp.

If the Oilers don’t match, some fascinating opportunities could emerge for specific individuals in the coming season. Here are the Oilers with the most to gain should Holloway and Broberg take their talents to St. Louis.

Stan Bowman

The Oilers announced Bowman as the team’s eleventh general manager in team history (including the WHA years) on July 24 following his reinstation by the NHL after an almost three-year exile for what was deemed an “inadequate response” to Kyle Beach’s allegations of sexual assault.

In his first month on the job, Bowman appears hard at work on the Leon Draisaitl extension, saying (via Derek van Diest at NHL.com), “I don’t have an update of where it’s going to be or the timing on that, but there is nothing negative to report, certainly.”

The Draisaitl negotiations are a no-win for Bowman. The expectation is Draisaitl will sign a long-term deal, perhaps as long as eight years with an AAV of anywhere from $12-14 million.

If the big centre arrives in Edmonton for a September media avail to announce the signing, the best Bowman can hope for is praise for accomplishing the expected.

Holloway and Broberg are an entirely different challenge.

If Bowman finds a way out of this dilemma, he can get his tenure off to a solid start, and try to demonstrate his value to the people who wondered why the Oilers needed a GM at all after a strong summer.

What might it look like? Trading off a veteran defenceman like Cody Ceci or Brett Kulak, without having to add a major asset as a sweetener, would get noticed. If Bowman can find a way to keep both young players without impacting the heart of the roster or giving up a high future pick or quality prospect, he would get full credit for getting it done.

It’s a major hurdle and there is no easy answer, but a massive pressure point in team history solved before the week is over? Fans would be ecstatic.

Mattias Janmark played a significant role for the Oilers in the playoffs. Among forwards, he averaged 11:56 per game (ninth among regulars), played in all 25 games and was useful at even strength and on the penalty kill.

He scored 1.5 pts-60 at five-on-five, eighth best on the Edmonton roster.

Janmark helped his line deliver a 60 percent (9-6 goals) share of goals at even strength.

On the penalty kill, Edmonton outscored opponents 3-2 with Janmark on the ice, and he scored two of the three short-handed goals.

That’s an amazing statistic.

In the offseason, the organization added multiple wingers and it was thought Janmark would be forced to the fourth line, with penalty-killing duties his main function on the roster.

If Holloway bolts for Missouri, Janmark could see playing time on a line with Adam Henrique and Connor Brown. That trio played 53 playoff minutes at even strength, outscoring the opposition 3-1 over Edmonton’s playoff run.

One of the concerns about Janmark stepping in for Holloway is footspeed. According to NHL Edge, which provides information on each player’s individual speed, Janmark’s top skating speed (36.15 kph) and 30 ‘speed bursts over 32kph’ were above average. Holloway is faster, but both men are above average compared to NHL average at their positions.

Janmark is an older player and does not have the future Holloway promises. For the 2024-25 season, he is poised to take full advantage of Holloway’s exit should it come to pass.

Even before the offer sheet, Troy Stecher represented insurance against something going askew with the Broberg experiment in the coming season.

It was believed Broberg would play on the second pairing with Darnell Nurse in 2024-25. There was uncertainty around the idea, as Broberg is left-handed and would be playing his off side. He also lacks experience and despite the Nurse-Broberg duo’s success in the postseason, underlying numbers were not encouraging.

In 66 playoff minutes as a tandem, Nurse-Broberg outscored opponents 4-2 but delivered an expected goal share of 30 percent (via Natural Stat Trick). That’s a small sample size, and more time is needed to make the call on the pairing.

Before the offer sheet, the idea appeared to be worth pursuing. That could still be the case.

Stecher is in the best possible spot to slide into a regular role if Broberg is no longer a member of the Oilers.

Puck IQ bins performance at five-on-five based on quality of competition. Stecher played a lot with the Arizona Coyotes in 2023-24, and his numbers were encouraging.

This is an encouraging table and suggests an astute acquisition by the Oilers.

The minutes and percentage of overall minutes tell us the Coyotes faded Stecher versus elites and played him as a third-pairing option.

The DFF (Dangerous Fenwick) numbers tell us that Stecher performed well against all levels of competition, including the minutes in which he faced elite competition.

The DFF rel (Dangerous Fenwick ratio relative to teammates) numbers indicate Stecher was above average compared to his fellow Coyotes defensive mates.

What does that indicate for the Oilers? Based on these numbers, Stecher would appear to be a suitable fit on the third pairing with veteran Kulak.

If Stecher played on the Nurse pairing, those minutes versus elites would increase and the results may not be as pleasant as the ones observed in Arizona.

Edmonton might be forced to run Nurse with Ceci. Fans are not enamoured with this pairing, but it could be the smart play based on the roster sans Broberg.

Stecher could be in line for a sharp spike in playing time, on merit, if Broberg heads to St. Louis.

Bottom line

You only get one chance to make a first impression.

For Bowman, this is both an enormous challenge and a fantastic opportunity. It’s also a tremendous amount of pressure on the organization and all Oilers fans are waiting on pins and needles for the next move.

Janmark signed with Edmonton in July of 2022 and has often been used as a safety valve as opposed to a feature player. He even spent time in the minors in 2022-23 until the team could figure out its roster.

Each time he is asked to fill a role, he does it admirably. The Oilers relying on the veteran Janmark should be considered a reasonable bet should it come to pass.

Stecher is more than capable in the depth role he was slated to cover this year, and the numbers suggest he can reliably step in on the third pairing with a veteran like Kulak.

For three men in the Oilers organization, a midsummer shocker offers both opportunity and uncertainty.

The Oilers offseason didn’t need more breaking news but it arrived all the same.

The hours to come will tell the tale.

(Top photo of Philip Broberg: Bob Frid / USA Today)