HOUSTON — Dana Brown’s second winter as a general manager is massive. The Houston Astros have myriad questions and many holes, and they might not have much money to manage them all. Franchise icon Alex Bregman is also a free agent, and Jose Altuve has all but demanded the club retain him.
Other than to acknowledge “nothing is off the table,” Brown hasn’t offered a blueprint for how he and his baseball operations department will navigate the winter. Perhaps one will emerge when Brown meets with reporters Tuesday afternoon at the general managers’ meetings. Before they begin, here is where Brown’s ballclub stands.
Free-agent roster decisions
Houston has eight free agents: Bregman, Justin Verlander, Yusei Kikuchi, Kendall Graveman, Jason Heyward, Hector Neris, Caleb Ferguson and Ben Gamel.
Bregman’s future will dominate most of the winter discourse, but the Astros’ desire to add bullpen depth could prompt reunion conversations with Graveman or Neris. Houston has reacquired both relievers after initial stints with the team, and both carry cachet inside the clubhouse.
Verlander’s availability on the open market can’t be ignored if owner Jim Crane is involved in baseball operations decisions. The two are extremely close. Verlander credited Crane with the contract he signed before the 2022 season and orchestrating his acquisition from the New York Mets in August 2023.
Verlander’s age and late-season swoon might give Crane pause in pursuing another deal for his friend, but Houston could still use a veteran starter to stabilize the back end of its rotation. Kikuchi’s masterful two months as an Astro increased his price tag, though, and it’s unknown how much flexibility Brown will have with his already bloated payroll.
Yusei Kikuchi’s 2Ks in the 5th.
6Ks thru 5 pic.twitter.com/jvi0ufif4r
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 25, 2024
Arbitration-eligible players — non-tender candidates
The Astros’ 10 arbitration-eligible players are projected to earn $58,225,000, according to MLB Trade Rumors. Only the Toronto Blue Jays have a higher estimate.
Add that figure to nine returning, guaranteed contracts along with José Abreu’s and Rafael Montero’s dead money and Houston has $204,658,333 already on its 2025 payroll — around $36 million away from the first luxury tax threshold.
Framber Valdez ($17,800,000) and Kyle Tucker ($15,800,000) account for more than half of the Astros’ projected arbitration payout, putting the club in a fascinating predicament. Houston just carried its highest payroll in franchise history and paid the luxury tax for the first time in Crane’s ownership tenure.
It’s unclear if Crane will authorize a similar-sized payroll or be willing to incur more severe penalties for paying the luxury tax a second consecutive season. If he is not, trading Valdez or Tucker must be considered. Cutting ties with Chas McCormick ($3,300,000) or Jake Meyers ($2,200,000) and ceding center field to top prospect Jacob Melton could be an option, too, if Crane wants to pare payroll.
Right-hander José Urquidy, who is projected to make $3,750,000, could be a non-tender candidate, but the Astros have a history of tendering contracts to arbitration-eligible players recovering from long-term injuries. Urquidy underwent Tommy John surgery in June.
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Major team needs
Upgrading the lineup must be Brown’s foremost priority. Vacancies at both corner infield spots give him some flexibility. Bregman’s free agency coincides with a wretched situation at first base, where last season the Astros extracted an 87 wRC+ and minus-1.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.
It’s unclear if Brown has the payroll flexibility to improve substantially at first and third, but even if he does, a thin position-player pool in free agency would make the task difficult. A fallow farm system could hinder Houston’s activity on the trade market — unless it is willing to also deal from its major-league roster.
After the season, Brown acknowledged the club might need to ask itself whether there are younger players it can call up and put in certain roles to maybe save some money. Corner infield prospect Zach Dezenzo made his major-league debut last season after minimal time in Triple A, though he might be more suited to play first base.
If Bregman goes elsewhere, few other attractive third basemen are available on the free-agent market. The St. Louis Cardinals’ “reset” could make Nolan Arenado available on the trade market, though his salary might be prohibitive. Houston could find a left-handed-hitting third baseman and platoon him with utilityman Mauricio Dubón, though it stands to reason the club would prefer a more permanent option.
Pete Alonso, Christian Walker, Josh Bell, Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt and Anthony Rizzo are among the free-agent first basemen available — a deeper pool the Astros might be more apt to explore.
Finding another setup leverage reliever to lessen Bryan Abreu’s workload could also be part of Houston’s offseason plan. The club is planning for Urquidy and Cristian Javier to contribute at some point next season after recovering from Tommy John surgery, but witnessing how a similar plan for Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. fell apart this season might make another starter useful.
Rule 5 protection decisions
None of the Astros’ 15 first-time Rule 5-eligible players are obvious locks to be protected on the 40-man roster by the Nov. 19 deadline. Left-hander Colton Gordon might be the most likely option, especially given the uncertainty surrounding some of Houston’s starting pitching depth. Gordon had a 3.94 ERA across 123 1/3 Triple-A innings last season.
To clear up some confusion: One prospect who is not yet Rule 5-eligible is right-hander Miguel Ullola, who struck out 171 batters across 130 1/3 innings and made a late-season cameo at Triple-A Sugar Land. Ullola came up in multiple trade talks during last August’s deadline.
Ullola, 22, could receive an invitation to major-league spring training, where his progress will be worth monitoring.
(Photo of Justin Verlander: Alex Slitz / Getty Images)
