Welcome back to the monthly statistical roundup, where we look at where the 2024 San Francisco Giants are thriving or failing. If you just look at their recently completed series against the Cubs, they’ve been thriving! It’s hard to win 75 percent of your games, you know.
If you look at the entire season, well, it’s been a bit of a roller coaster. One that’s a little bumpier than you’d like. Also, the person in front of you has an open cup of soda for some reason, and it’s splashing all over you with every drop and turn. There are ants in the roller coaster for some reason, and now they’re very interested in your soda-sticky hands. But there are also periods where things go up very slowly, click, click, click, and maybe there won’t be a drop once you reach the summit!
Here are some stats where the Giants or their individual players either rank first or last in the National League or all of baseball. We’ve talked about some of these extremes before. You should know that the Giants lead the world in bullpen innings by now, and you should definitely know that they’re completely upside down when it comes to stolen bases for and against, so we won’t rehash those stats. These ones are right out of the oven. (Note: Stats as of Saturday morning)
Thairo Estrada — Best defensive second baseman in the National League by Outs Above Average (9)
Brett Wisely’s debut as Estrada’s replacement went well. Really well. Really, really well.
Brett dijó: “Buenas Noches” pic.twitter.com/ukHTElxoNF
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) June 29, 2024
But there’s still something the Giants will miss with Estrada on the IL. He’s not just OK or pretty good defensively. He might be one of the best.
Estrada is often hard to watch at the plate. He’s one of the biggest chasers in the game, but he’s also one of the “best” at making contact on pitches out of the zone. I put “best” in scare quotes because that’s typically a bad thing for hitters. It’s better to swing, miss and live to see another pitch than it is to make weak contact. As of Friday afternoon, Estrada has the lowest on-base percentage (.264) of any qualified Giants hitter since 1969. The only player to have a lower OBP was Hal Lanier, who did it four times in the ’60s. You typically do not want to be keeping offensive company with Hal Lanier.
When it comes to pickin’ it, though? Estrada is one of the best. Only Marcus Semien is ahead of him in OAA, and the eyeball test matches with the numbers. Estrada has great range in both directions, and even though he has one of the weakest arms in the league by velocity, he makes up for it with a quick release and accuracy. That’s why he’s an above-average player according to WAR, even with his Lanierian OBP.
The good news is that Wisely’s best position is probably second base. He’s solid at shortstop, and he’s a surprisingly adept center fielder when asked, but he was remarkable at second last season, both by the metrics and the eyeball test.
Still, it’s probably too optimistic to assume that Wisely is better than the best defender in the NL by most stats. He’ll have to make that case with his play.
Huzzah! The Giants’ sinkerballers are sinking their sinkers, and it’s resulting in grounders. That’s the plan alright, and it’s certainly helpful that they have a couple of Gold Glove candidates in the infield behind them.
There’s no way this stat can be a negative, right?
That launch-angle stat doesn’t have to be entirely positive, either. You want opposing hitters to hit balls on the ground because in the history of baseball, there has never been a groundball that’s gone over the fence for a home run (look it up). Keeping the ball in the park is a great way to keep runs off the board.
Getting a lot of groundballs is good, right? (Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
However, there’s a tradeoff, and it’s that groundballs are more likely to turn into hits than fly balls. So the Giants are getting those groundballs, but the opposing hitters are hitting them much harder than the average ball in play. There are other extreme stats for the Giants in this genre. Their pitchers allow the most barrels per plate appearance, as well as the most barrels per swing. Sure, some of them go straight into the ground, but there’s an obvious correlation between how hard a ball is hit and what the result is.
The Rockies are the only reason the Giants don’t have the highest difference between their ERA and FIP in baseball, and I’m a longtime believer that the Rockies shouldn’t count for anything ever, but it still prevents the Giants from being tops there. I’d like to say this is evidence of the Giants being unlucky, but it’s probably more about the limitations of FIP. That’s a stat that isn’t accounting for how hard those balls in play are. They’re hit pretty danged hard.
Called strikes for pitchers — Highest in baseball (27.4 percent)
A lot of this comes from Logan Webb, who gets the fewest swings on pitches in the strike zone. Hitters just aren’t comfortable against him, and his command of four pitches — all moving in different directions — leads to a lot of unpulled triggers.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that Giants hitters are close to the top in this category, too, and they have the second-lowest percentage in the National League when it comes to swinging at pitches in the strike zone. Lots of pitches in the zone that zip by them harmlessly.
Matt Chapman — Highest percentage of pitches seen in the strike zone among NL hitters (55.5 percent)
Matt Chapman doesn’t swing at that many bad pitches. He has the 23rd-lowest swing rate on balls out of the strike zone. This is what you want to see from a hitter! They’re supposed to spit on the pitches they can’t hit and wait for the gifts in the middle of the plate. So in this respect, Chapman has been awesome.
However, the next step is to do something with those gifts in the middle of the plate. In this respect, Chapman has been one of the 10 worst hitters in baseball on pitches down the middle based on wOBA, and if you use plain ol’ batting average, he’s the fourth-worst.
My guess? Probably a fluke that will regress to the mean in a good way. Chapman has never had this problem before. He’s always been a little below average on balls in the middle of the strike zone compared to the typical hitter, but he’s never been bad. Right now, though, pitchers aren’t scared to throw him strikes. It’s a development that’s worth watching.
Note: I wrote this before Chapman unraveled a baseball, thread by thread, with this home run:
The @SFGiants take the lead thanks to a 2-run shot from Matt Chapman. 💪 pic.twitter.com/vZbMNUosSO
— MLB (@MLB) June 29, 2024
Yeah, I don’t think this is a long-term thing. File it under quirk.
Is this a good thing? Not sure. I do wonder if it has something to do with teams running wild on them. It’s possible that they’re a little too predictable with their rhythm and pace.
That’s wildly speculative, though. Mostly, this is here because the article is filled with good outliers and bad outliers. Treat yourself to an ambiguous outlier.
Matt Williams, take a bow. The Cubs and Guardians have each had 15 runners thrown out at the plate this season. The Giants can be frustrating. But at least they’re not putting that evil into your world.
Here’s the only one I could find (this stat doesn’t include forceouts with the bases loaded), and I’m pretty sure the runner did this on his own:
I’m not sure what the other out was, but it didn’t come on a hit, sac fly attempt, or a wild pitch, so Matt Williams might be pitching a perfect game.
It makes sense. Williams has seen a lot of baseball. The bulk of it has been experienced from the perspective of third base. Is this the new market inefficiency? If your third-base coach isn’t a grizzled third baseman, you need to get with the times.
The Giants have been in San Francisco for 66 seasons. In 44 of them, they hit fewer grand slams than the 2024 Giants have hit before the All-Star break. The 2018 Giants didn’t hit a single one.
What’s the record for most grand slams by a Giants team since they moved to San Francisco? Nine. And you’ll never believe the team that did it. It was the otherwise forgettable 2015 Giants, and look at this murderer’s row of grand slammers:
• Casey McGehee
• Brandon Crawford
• Buster Posey (2)
• Hunter Pence
• Hector Sánchez
• Kelby Tomlinson
• Marlon Byrd
• Jarrett Parker
That’s the group of legends this year’s Giants are competing with. Godspeed and good luck.
Also, don’t look at the words in the parentheses in that header. I’m sure it means nothing with the Dodgers in town.
Just ignore it.
It’s probably fine.
(Top photo of Matt Chapman: Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)
