The Edmonton Oilers did what no one thought possible: match the miserable 1-3-0 start of 2023-24.
They didn’t win their first game of the season until Tuesday against the Philadelphia Flyers and then the club beat the Nashville Predators to improve the record to 2-3-0.
What have we learned about these Oilers during the first week of the NHL season?
The veteran winger signed an extreme value deal in the summer (one year, $3 million) in what might have been the smartest signing by the Oilers in 2024 free agency.
He delivered very little in preseason, though, to the point where coach Kris Knoblauch moved him down the depth chart and away from the No. 1 line with Connor McDavid.
Things clicked from there.
Through five games, his five-on-five scoring (2-2-4) and points per 60 at five-on-five (3.67) lead the team.
Skinner has found instant chem with centre Adam Henrique. In 20 minutes, the duo is 1-0 goals with a 67 percent expected goal share (all numbers five-on-five and via Natural Stat Trick).
Skinner fits like a glove, no matter the line. He anticipates well, is an expert passer and can find seams with the puck that are not easy to thread. His goal against the Preds involved driving to the net and working for a chance.
At this point, there’s no question about him being the most effective Oilers forward in the offensive end at five-on-five in this young season.
Stuart Skinner outplayed free-agent signing Jack Campbell in October 2022. His five-on-five save percentage (.971) was well clear of Campbell’s (.905) and he eventually won the lion’s share of the starts over the rest of the season.
Last fall, Skinner once again outperformed Campbell (.910 to .884 save percentages, via Natural Stat Trick) and backstopped the team all the way to the deciding Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
Calvin Pickard, called up after Campbell got waived and was sent to the minors, started his second game in the first five this year on Thursday. It was his third appearance.
After five games this season, Pickard has played the same total minutes and has a better save percentage.
| Player | Minutes | Save Pct |
|---|---|---|
|
120 |
0.929 |
|
|
120 |
0.857 |
All numbers five-on-five
Skinner is the starter and that’s not in question. Having a backup who can be trusted is highly valuable, though, and Skinner isn’t such a strong starter that the coach should hesitate to run with the backup if he’s playing better.
Pickard was useful last spring during the playoff run against the Vancouver Canucks.
Skinner is likely to start against the Dallas Stars this weekend. He played his best game of this season so far against Philadelphia and held the game at 3-2 until Edmonton could tie and ultimately win it.
The coaching staff appears to be deploying something close to a platoon so far this season. It’s an interesting tweak, likely designed to make sure Skinner is fresher come playoff time.
Brown and Perry proving effective
A cynic could suggest that both the Connor Brown and Corey Perry contracts for 2024-25 were agreed upon last season.
Former general manager Ken Holland signed Brown to a bonus-laden deal ahead of 2023-24 that infuriated fans last year (the cap total bled into this season), but he’s on a ridiculous value deal this year.
Perry signed a deal midseason with a small cap hit for the rest of 2023-24. It’s easy to believe there was a handshake deal for this season (this is pure speculation).
Both men have delivered effective play.
When Brown is on the ice at five-on-five, the Oilers are enjoying a 65 percent expected-goal share and 60 percent shot share at five-on-five.
Perry has combined with veteran Derek Ryan (and at times Vasily Podkolzin) to deliver 31 effective minutes five-on-five. The line is over 50 percent in shot share and expected goal share and is 1-0 goals.
Nurse is coming around
One of the best stories over the last two games is Darnell Nurse.
The coaching staff eased him into the lineup during preseason, giving him only the last two exhibition games to get ready for the games that count.
In the first three games of the regular season, Nurse owned a five-on-five goal share of 25 percent (1-3 goals) and a shot share of 45 percent.
However, he started to find his game against Philadelphia and took another step against Nashville on Thursday night.
In those two games, his five-on-five goal share was 67 percent (2-1) and the shot share was 58 percent.
What’s more, he was back to playing his aggressive style and skating miles.
A healthy and effective Nurse changes the equation for the Oilers’ second pair and for the team overall.
Not getting buried early
Last season, the opening struggle stretched to 2-8-1 before the organization made a move. When general manager Ken Holland waived Campbell on Nov. 7 (and then sent him to the AHL Bakersfield Condors), ownership had seen enough.
The following week coach Jay Woodcroft (who would win his final game as Oilers coach, going 3-9-1 for the season) was replaced by Kris Knoblauch, with assistant Mark Stuart retained. Special adviser Paul Coffey joined the coaching staff.
Edmonton caught fire from there, going 46-18-5 under Knoblauch, Stuart and Coffey. In the postseason, the Oilers won 15 and lost 10 and got as close to winning Stanley as is possible without a parade.
This season, the early-season struggles were shorter and the recovery more immediate.
It’s only five games, and that’s a small sample.
However, Nurse’s spike over the last two games, the performances of the second and third lines and the fact Knoblauch can count on both goalies bodes well for the next few weeks.
Many felt these Oilers would struggle to shake off the rust from last spring’s Stanley Cup Final disappointment. If this is in fact real improvement, the hangover period will have been shorter than expected, and well short of last season’s October disaster.
(Photo of Jeff Skinner: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)
