Months of research and data-crunching has been mostly left for dead after just a few weeks of injuries and roster moves. As the dust finishes settling before kickoff, there’s one fantasy-related nugget I’m focused on for each team as we near the start of the 2024 regular season.
Arizona Cardinals — Lots of attention is being paid to slot man Greg Dortch as a top sleeper option for good reason, but I’m most interested in Michael Wilson’s role out wide. If he commands that spot with natural second-year progression, there’s a case he’s been going more than fifty picks too late all summer.
Atlanta Falcons — If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we’d all have a wonderful fantasy season. Left hanging long enough, it’s time for the Falcons to fulfill Bijan Robinson’s prophecy — but if they continue to split backfield work, especially high-value goal-line touches, Tyler Allgeier could be the most coveted backup in the game. Watch that utilization closely.
Baltimore Ravens — If the high-flying Todd Monken offense that never was is just taking a year longer than expected, there’s at least one viable fantasy asset missing on draft lists. Most pundits automatically anointed Nelson Agholor the rotation spot, but my deep shot is on fourth-round rookie Devontez Walker to be that guy.
Buffalo Bills — Losing Stefon Diggs without a comparable replacement will only put more strain on Josh Allen’s shoulders. One place the Bills staff may look to alleviate that pain is at the goal-line — something they’ve vocalized in the past. Only 12 of James Cook’s 237 total carries last year came in goal-to-go situations. If fourth-round rookie Ray Davis plays the hammer all season, he could circle the wagon for a dozen TDs.
Carolina Panthers — In almost any other circumstance, a first-round rookie WR with Xavier Legette’s size would never last beyond pick 150 — when all else fails, draft capital is a great place to speculate.
Chicago Bears — I can’t remember a coaching staff ever talking up a rookie’s ability to read defenses and add such a net benefit to the aerial attack than Chicago did for Roschon Johnson. Widely undrafted, the former Longhorn could be an immediate contributor as part of the pass package in an ascendant Chicago offense.
Cincinnati Bengals — Best ball bros can fast forward this part… they were well ahead of the curve on Bengals WR Andrei Iosivas, who took first-team reps with Joe Burrow all preseason. In a worst-case scenario, where things go completely sideways with Ja’Marr Chase, “Yoshi” could quite literally be the steal of the draft.
Cleveland Browns — Can Deshaun Watson play QB at the NFL level anymore? It’s the kind of thing that would be nice to know before Week 1, so it’s what I’ll be watching for.
Dallas Cowboys — After sinking so many picks into him last year, I’ve tried nonstop to manifest Jalen Tolbert into a fantasy thing for the Cowboys offense all summer. If Brandin Cooks ages overnight on the wrong side of 30, there’s a ton of unrealized potential in the DAL passing attack.
Denver Broncos — On a team in desperate need of playmaking, lean into explosivity — no player better exemplifies that than backup RB Jaleel McLaughlin.
Detroit Lions — It’s too late to add off waivers, but not to make a trade offer on Jameson Williams.
Green Bay Packers — For the record, I’ve been too terrified of the talent depth in the WR room to draft any Packers at cost. That said, snap share should be atop the watch list of every fantasy GM. Jayden Reed played all of 15 snaps in two-wide sets last year. Yikes. Does he take that role for himself? Is it at Christian Watson’s expense? And is Dontayvion Wicks even rosterable in standard formats (ducks)?
Houston Texans — Everyone assumed Joe Mixon guaranteed drafters a bell-cow role on a prolific offense, but he hasn’t been the best Texans RB this preseason. That title belongs to Cam Akers, who you should go add this second if possible.
Indianapolis Colts — For my tight end streamers out there, most everyone abandoned ship after the Jelani Woods injury — but I noticed Kylen Granson getting all the first-team work. He’s produced in limited samples and makes an interesting dark-horse pick for a top 10 TE finish.
Jacksonville Jaguars — Keep a close eye on Jacksonville’s rate of 11-personnel and the utilization of first-round rookie Brian Thomas Jr. within the scheme. It’s early to call the fight, but I already like him over presumed starter Gabe Davis — position for him however you can.
Kansas City Chiefs — Hate putting this out in the universe for Isiah Pacheco drafters , but watch for Samaje Perine slowly eating away into his passing down/two-minute work. That snap number dropping will be your first sell signal.
Las Vegas Raiders — Will Zamir White play on third down at all this year? Despite being responsible for 80% of all Raiders’ RB carries after his Week 15 takeover, White played on less than 20% of third downs. If Vegas stinks, there’s an obvious path to a busted pick — for what it’s worth, I’m not drafting any Raiders.
Los Angeles Chargers — The Chargers wide receiver room is up to its eyeballs in uncertainty, which also makes for a great spot to speculate (especially with a talented quarterback). UDFA Brenden Rice led the entire team in preseason snaps on his way to making the team. Could be nothing, could be a league winner… but at no cost, it’s worth finding out.
Los Angeles Rams — Sean McVay’s fantasy consolidation leaves little room for speculation outside of the Rams RB room. Known for single-back usage, a true split between Kyren Williams and Blake Corum could damage both.
Miami Dolphins — Neither of the Dolphins’ track star wideouts have seen the field, so circle sixth round rookie Malik Washington, coming off a ridiculous season at Virginia — he could be next up to benefit from Mike McDaniel’s space-based schematics.
Minnesota Vikings — Can Sam Darnold up-end the ghost game narrative under new OC Kevin O’Connell? If so, not only should he be rostered everywhere, WR3 Jalen Nailor belongs on your watch list as well.
New England Patriots — Very rarely is a team’s top target earner still so uncertain come Labor Day weekend that they’re available after pick 170. The odds say DeMario Douglas, but my money is on second-round rookie Ja’Lynn Polk to move the needle.
New Orleans Saints — New Orleans still has questions to answer with only one week to go — and it’s becoming increasingly likely utility man Taysom Hill finds himself in a role to smash ADP.
New York Giants — Malik Nabers’ projected target share continues to climb right along with his ADP, but who else will command outside targets from Daniel Jones? Early reports say Darius Slayton, except my gut is telling me to leave the light on for Jalin Hyatt.
New York Jets — This must be Jets bias in real time but I don’t get why Tyler Conklin isn’t part of the TE1 conversation in a very top-heavy offense. Maybe a real QB will do the trick?
Philadelphia Eagles — Reaching way out for this one, but sixth round rookie Johnny Wilson made the Eagles’ final roster. Though the Jahan Dotson signing hurts Wilson for Week 1, there’s a chance we’re hearing the Wilson name before long — he’s 6-foot-6, 231 pounds, with a 98th percentile speed score.
Pittsburgh Steelers — Why did I do this to myself again? I couldn’t help but identify Pat Freiermuth as a potential target hog in a Steelers offense that was unable to land Brandon Aiyuk, and I find myself again at the hands of Arthur Smith’s decision making (deep sigh).
San Francisco 49ers — Injuries did Kyle Shanahan’s job for us, when injuries sent Elijah Mitchell to the season-ending IR. Considering Christian McCaffrey’s already dealing with bumps and bruises, will Jordan Mason provide standalone value out of the gate? Don’t wait to find out.
Seattle Seahawks — Can the camp reports about Kenneth Walker III going full Superman be true? If they are, he’s the league-winner we’ve all been looking for. But if the coaches are blowing smoke, Zach Charbonnet’s among the most valuable backups in the game — watch the Seahawks’ pass game utilization closely.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Mike Evans dropped in total targets, receptions, yards and yards per catch each of the past three years. If the age curve hits all at once on the wrong side of 31, third-round rookie Jalen McMillan could find himself occupying an ideal piece of fantasy real estate from outside pick 250.
Tennessee Titans — With DeAndre Hopkins questionable for Week 1, there may be enough available opportunities here for more than one name. When all else fails, turn to freakish size and talent, and pray. Chigoziem Okonkwo enters his third year as a post-hype sleeper who could go from undrafted TE to a top 5 weekly positional projection with the right route tree.
Washington Commanders — For as often as coaches and teams lie right to our face, it’s roster moves and snap shares that provide sunny disinfectant. Washington moving WR Jahan Dotson to a division rival tells me they were pretty happy with the maturation of rookie Luke McCaffrey, a great spec add going into Week 1 with FLEX potential for the truly desperate.
(Top photo of Tyler Conklin: Al Bello/Getty Images)
