As our NFL Hope-O-Meter results indicate, many Chicago Bears fans are highly enthusiastic about the team this season. They probably are more optimistic than they have been since Jay Cutler was smokin’.
NFL front-office people also see a team on the rise. But most of them aren’t as high on the Bears as they are on two other teams in the NFC North — the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.
For The Athletic’s annual roster review, three scouts who work for NFL teams shared their opinions. We’ll refer to them Scout A, Scout B, and Scout C. All of them see the Bears as no better than the third-best team in the division.
Scout A: “The Lions and Packers are two of the best teams in the league, so the division probably comes down to them.”
Scout B: “On paper, this is probably the best roster the Bears have had since the Jerry Angelo days. But the division is tough and probably comes down to the Lions and Packers with the Lions winning it.”
Scout C: “I like the Bears roster and they are well on their way, but it takes time. The North is a two-horse race. Detroit and Green Bay have the most talent, and Detroit should win it. Chicago is trying to be the Detroit of last year or two years ago. If the Bears or Vikings get good quarterback play, they both could make a move.”
The Athletic also asked 10 front-office people to predict the Bears’ record. Two of them said they would go 7-10. Four said 8-9. Three said 9-8. Then there was the outlier, predicting a 13-3 finish.
Asked to explain the optimism, he says he believes the Bears are a talented young team, and that quarterback Caleb Williams is the real deal and wide receiver DJ Moore is a difference-maker. He also said they are scheduled to oppose only two quarterbacks who put fear in defenses — C.J. Stroud of the Texans and Matthew Stafford of the Rams. He qualified his prediction by saying the Bears would be so successful only with a more effective interior pass rush, which would likely have to come from second-year player Gervon Dexter. Without more pressure from the tackles, the front-office person says the Bears will win nine or fewer.
Here is how the evaluators break down the Bears
Quarterbacks
The Bears have seen encouraging signs from Williams in the summer, but it isn’t easy to get a handle on a rookie quarterback until he starts playing in the regular season.
“We’ll see when teams are game planning against him with NFL starters,” Scout B says. “But I think the ability — the arm strength on the move, the improvisational skills — is real. What we don’t know is if he can do it when defenses take away targets.”
Scouts C and B agreed that in the preseason, Williams has looked like the same player he was at USC, with the penchant to make “wow” plays, especially after the pocket breaks down.
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Interestingly, two of the scouts brought up the same player when talking about Williams — Russell Wilson.
Scout A: “He reminds me of a more talented Russell Wilson in that he can make something out of nothing. But I don’t think that’s a way to survive for the long haul. He’ll have to operate on timing, especially on early downs to be a volume passer. They will need to help him with the run game and minimize the number of straight dropback situations he’s in. You don’t want to put him in situations when he’s down two touchdowns.”
Scout C: “Will everything be off script with him like Russell Wilson or will it be once in a while off script? He’s at his best playing backyard football.”
Scout C says Williams will be must-see TV, for better or worse. Scout B thinks Williams will be a good one, but he expects some inconsistency. “He makes the game complicated because he won’t throw it to the first guy even when he’s open,” he says. “He pats it, scrambles — it’s the thrill of dramatics with him. But he’s special outside the pocket.”
Scout A believes Williams tends to hold the football too long and take too many sacks. So he will need to learn to get the ball out, and the coaching staff will need to have an effective strategy to survive negative plays.
All the scouts like backup Tyson Bagent as a No. 2. Scout B cited his grittiness and the chip on his shoulder. Scout A credits Bears coaches with developing him. Scout C says he has more talent than anybody knew.
Running backs
The scouts agree this is a strong group partly because of the depth and complementary skill sets of D’Andre Swift, Khalil Herbert, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer and even Velus Jones Jr., if he is considered a running back.
Herbert is especially effective in zone schemes, according to Scout A. Scout B cites Johnson’s ability to change it up with physical, downhill runs. Scout A says Homer can contribute on first and second downs but isn’t as effective in the pass game. Scout C likes Jones’ talent as a one-cut runner and ability to play in space but is unsure of his new role and transition from wide receiver.
.@VelusJr weaves his way 39 yards for the TD ⚡️
📺: FOX32 pic.twitter.com/stguYQKTGV
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) August 23, 2024
The primary improvement is expected to come from Swift, a free-agent addition. “They didn’t have a front-line player at the position, but Swift is that,” Scout A says. “Durability has been a question with him in the past, but that’s where the depth comes in.”
Scout B isn’t as sold on Swift. “There’s a reason why he’s on his third team,” he says. “I like the twitchiness and ability to jump in and out of cuts, but something is missing there.”
Scout C describes Swift as a perimeter runner with “some water bug to him.” He notes that with the Eagles, much of Swift’s production came against light boxes.
The scouts don’t expect fullback Khari Blasingame to have a significant offensive role but noted his value on special teams.
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Wide receivers
With the additions of Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, wide receiver has become the strength of the Bears, according to the scouts. “It’s an awesome group,” Scout B says. “They have no weaknesses.”
Scout A wonders if the Bears would have been better served trying to develop Williams by using more resources on offensive linemen than wide receivers, however.
“A lot of young quarterbacks aren’t ready to go 1-2-3 through their progressions and deliver on time and take advantage of their wide receivers,” he says.
Allen’s potential impact has been glossed over by some, but Scout B calls him the glue of the group and says the trade to acquire him was the Bears’ best offseason move.
“He’s a true pro,” he says. “He’s smart and tough, he works hard and catches well. He will help Rome.”
Bears rookie Rome Odunze is part of a special group of wide receivers. (David Banks / USA Today)
Scout C calls Allen “quarterback friendly,” and one of the best route runners in the league. Scout A calls him a “safety net in the middle of the field.”
The drafting of Odunze was praised by all three. Scout B thinks Odunze will be a dynamic player in the NFL. Scout C says he is everything he looks for in a wide receiver. Scout A says he is NFL-ready and should make an impact early.
Scout A considers Moore one of the most explosive playmakers in the league. Scout C puts him in the second tier behind a group that includes Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Ja’Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill.
Tight ends
The scouts think Gerald Everett, a 30-year-old free-agent addition on his fourth team, should pair well with Cole Kmet. “They have a nice tight end group,” Scout B says, who refers to Everett as “an athletic freak.”
Scout C says Everett isn’t as polished in route running or as savvy in finding openings as some of the elite tight ends but praised him for his ability on screens and shallow crosses. He said his size and determination make him difficult to tackle.
“Everett is a nice complement to an in-line tight end because he can create mismatches one-on-one and has post-catch ability,” Scout A says. “But he disappears at times and makes some untimely mistakes.”
Everett is capable of contributing to pass protection and the run game. Scout B says he is a serviceable position blocker who uses angles and leverage well and works to finish blocks.
Kmet is an all-around tight end, in the opinion of scouts.
“He’s as good in the run game as pass,” Scout C says. “Typically, with pass-catching tight ends, you give up something in the run game. Defensively, we don’t look at him the way we look at one of the top pass-catching tight ends, but I’ve always liked his game. He’s steady Eddie.”
Scout B says Kmet will get open because defenses will focus on taking other weapons away.
The scouts still see value in 40-year-old Marcedes Lewis.
“He still is an NFL-caliber blocker,” Scout A says. “He can be schemed open and is effective in the red zone, and he has really good hands.”
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Offensive line
The scouts see some vulnerabilities here. Surprisingly, the position they have the fewest questions about could be center. That’s because they have seen free-agent signee Coleman Shelton play consistently over 32 starts. They also like the potential of Ryan Bates, who will likely begin the season as a swingman.
“There is a comfort level with Shelton,” Scout C says.
Scout A calls Shelton a serviceable journeyman who knows how to play. Scout B points out Shelton doesn’t handle a bull rush well, but he knows how to use his athleticism and technique to his advantage.
Scouts A and C expect Bates, who has had a shoulder issue, to be a starter at some point of the season, whether it’s center or guard. And if history is a guide, opportunity could come at guard, where Nate Davis missed 11 games over the last two years and Teven Jenkins has never had more than 11 starts in a season.
“Davis is a solid player when he’s healthy,” Scout B says. “He just hasn’t been healthy.”
Scout B also thought Jenkins came into his own in 2023. Scout C likes Jenkins better at guard than tackle, and says, “he’s improving.”
The scouts expressed concerns about left tackle Braxton Jones and right tackle Darnell Wright giving up pressures and committing penalties. “They will probably do some systematic and schematic things to help them,” Scout A says.
“Jones produces, but it feels like he wins ugly,” Scout C says. “He has the length, size and athleticism, but he hasn’t been consistent.”
Scout B says Jones is not a throwaway, citing his youth (25 years old) and potential to improve.
“(Wright) can be a really good player if he plays more consistently,” Scout B says. “He takes some plays off and doesn’t always have ideal effort.”
Defensive line
For the Bears to have an effective defensive line, this unit must become more than Montez Sweat and the other guys. Last season, Sweat was the only player on the current roster to finish in the top 90 players in the league in pressure percentage, according to TruMedia.
“He needs a guy on the other side to make it go,” Scout B says. Says Scout C, “I wouldn’t say it’s a one-man band, but a lot of guys are trying to find their way. There isn’t a dynamic guy other than Sweat.”
The Bears are counting on more from Dexter, their 2023 second-round pick. “Dexter should be better than last year,” Scout B says. “He and (2023 third-round pick Zacch) Pickens were up and down as rookies.”
The Bears are counting on second-year defensive tackle Gervon Dexter to take a big step forward this season. (Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
Says Scout A, “I like Dexter’s talent. If he can continue to improve his pass rush and become more consistent on early downs, he will help.”
Darrell Taylor, an August trade acquisition from Seattle, averaged 7.1 sacks in his first three seasons. Is he capable of more? Sweat averaged 7.25 sacks in his first four seasons. Teams generally do not give up on a pass rusher with potential unless the player gives them a reason.
“Taylor is a pass-rush specialist, and he’s not disciplined in the run game,” Scout A says. “He probably won’t play a lot on early downs. He’s a legitimate speed rusher with some power and quickness to have a viable counter move, but he doesn’t do anything consistently.”
Scout B says Taylor can provide some pressure off the edge along with DeMarcus Walker, but neither is likely to dictate adjustments in pass protection.
Scout B liked the August trade for defensive tackle Chris Williams. “He fits what they do,” he says. “He gets off the ball, is a one-gap penetrator and has a high motor. Offenses will have to account for him.”
All three scouts are impressed with defensive tackle Andrew Billings. But he’s seen mostly as a two-down player who stops the run with limited potential against the pass.
It’s difficult to imagine where the defensive line would be without Sweat. “That was a really good trade,” Scout B says. “He’s special. Last year he made a difference and saved the coach’s job.”
Linebackers
The starters are solid in the estimation of scouts, but they have questions about depth with Amen Ogbongbemiga and Noah Sewell in reserve.
But Scout B thought middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds took a step back last season after the Bears signed him as a free agent.
“He made some splash plays but was not the same guy as he was in Buffalo,” he says. “It looked like they should have kept Roquan Smith, who killed it with the Ravens.”
Edmunds and weakside linebacker T.J. Edwards work well together in the estimation of Scout C.
“Edmunds is more see ball, get ball, a reactive player, whereas Edwards is more instinctual and can anticipate,” Scout C says. “He isn’t as athletic, but he’s a good football player who understands schemes and angles. It’s a good combo.”
Jack Sanborn isn’t expected to play as many snaps as Edmunds and Edwards, but he provides value when he plays. “He’s perfect for his role as the third linebacker in a 4-3,” Scout C says. “And he’s a good (special) teamer.”
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Cornerbacks
Scout B says his team targeted Tyrique Stevenson in game planning last season, trying to take advantage of him with double moves and slants. Scout C says Stevenson was inconsistent in 2023, sometimes struggling with angles and awareness. But he likes his traits.
The Bears’ expectation is Stevenson will improve in his second season. There is reason to believe he can. “He was highly productive on the football last year (16 pass breakups and four interceptions), but he gave up some plays and made some fouls,” Scout A says.
It’s difficult to find fault with Jaylon Johnson’s game. Scout C says Johnson can do everything asked of a corner.
The @ChicagoBears locked down their lockdown CB Jaylon Johnson 🔥 @NBAxJay1 pic.twitter.com/X2eAmNF5rD
— NFL (@NFL) March 7, 2024
“He’s maybe a better player than he is an athlete, but he’s not deficient as an athlete,” Scout A says. Scout B says Johnson is a Pro Bowl-level player, but he wants to see him follow up his excellent season last year with another — especially now that he has been rewarded contractually.
Kyler Gordon could be developing into one of the league’s better nickel corners.
“He’s built more like an outside guy but he has the movement skills to play inside,” Scout C says. “He has a quick trigger in the run game. They will blitz him because he’s so physical, so he’s a weapon.”
Terrell Smith, Jaylon Jones and Josh Blackwell provide decent depth. “It’s a good group,” Scout B says. “They all can run.”
Safeties
Scout B calls this position “the weak link of the defense.” All the scouts expressed doubts that free agent Kevin Byard, at 31, can play like the two-time All-Pro he once was. Over eight seasons, Byard was considered one of the pillars of the Titans, but they traded him to the Eagles in October of last year. The Eagles released him after the season.
Scout A points out Byard’s ball production has dipped considerably. Last season he had one interception and three passes defended. In his best season seven years ago, he had eight interceptions and 16 passes defended.
“He’s not the same guy he was,” Scout B says. “He was subpar with the Eagles. He needs to be a box safety because he’s lost speed. But (Jaquan) Brisker is a box safety. In coverage, they both are liabilities.”
Scout C says Brisker is best around the line but can be functional in the middle of the field. Scout A calls Brisker a “young, talented player.” Scout B is impressed with Brisker’s toughness.
Scout C says Bears coaches will have to try to protect Byard.
“You don’t want him consistently playing free safety,” he says. “But he understands the game in condensed spaces, so there is value there. He’s also a great leader, so he will add to the defense as far as alignments, assignments and being a calming factor.”
The scouts view Jonathan Owens, signed as a free agent in the offseason from the Packers, as a special teams player with limited value on defense. Scout B sees some potential in Elijah Hicks entering his third season.
(Top photo of Caleb Williams: Daniel Bartel / USA Today)
