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Good morning! Finish your errands early today.
The Big Game: It might come down to Saquon
We made it. Super Bowl Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox). A whirlwind week of silly questions and overanalysis finally gives way to actual football. Praise be.
I digitally sat down with Scoop City writer Jacob Robinson for some final thoughts on the simple question: What’s the one thing to watch for when each team has the ball?
Here’s Jacob:
- “How quickly will Patrick Mahomes find his receivers? Quarterbacks who win Super Bowls tend to get the ball out quicker than their counterparts, and Mahomes is 5-10 when defenses have forced him to hold it for more than 3.26 seconds per pass, a mark nearly identical to what the Eagles held quarterbacks to this season. I explained in detail here.
- “Can Saquon Barkley break enough tackles? The Commanders struggled to stop him in the NFC Championship, resulting in 122 yards on 16 touches. But these Chiefs had the league’s lowest missed-tackle rate this season, per Next Gen Stats. It’s strength-on-strength, so as Terrell Owens would say, get your popcorn ready.”
Shoutout to Jacob. I think the Barkley point is especially prescient, enough to influence my Good Bet: UNDER 48.5 (odds via BetMGM). Both defenses will thrive, and Barkley could have his worst stats this season.
Who wins? I have no idea there. (Austin Mock’s model gives the Chiefs a 51 percent chance.) Let’s keep moving to the important stuff:
Props: The bath will be purple
All week, Jacob and the Scoop City crew ran a series on prop bets, which was great. I’m cherry-picking from it:
- Gatorade bath: Purple. Jacob picked yellow/green in Scoop City, but I think we’re going purple for the second straight year here. We’ve had a lot of repeats in recent memory. Book it.
- Total songs during Kendrick Lamar’s halftime show: Under 10.5. I stole this from our prop party sheet, which is fantastic. The last two performers both hit the under, and I’m going to bet Lamar plays “Not Like Us” twice.
- Last TD scorer: Travis Kelce. I’m again squirreling out of picking a winner because this doesn’t have to be a game-winning score, just the last touchdown. A short pass to Mahomes’ favorite tight end feels right.
More fun prop bets here, plus other pregame entertainment options:
Carry on:
News to Know
Lakers’ Williams trade falls through
The Lakers’ trade for center Mark Williams has been “rescinded” because of the Hornets’ “failure to satisfy a condition of the trade,” Los Angeles said last night. (Williams failed his physical, Jovan Buha reports.) On Wednesday, the Lakers had agreed to send Dalton Knecht, Cam Reddish and picks. This is a “massive blow” for Los Angeles, as Buha writes. (Man, what is with Lakers-Hornets trades not going through?)
More news:
What We’re Eating: You still have time to make these
There are mere hours left until kickoff, and you haven’t done anything about food. We understand! Chips and dip are perfectly acceptable, but there are still options if you want to go homemade — you might even already have the ingredients on hand.
(Editor’s note: I, Jason, was going to make this spinach artichoke dip yesterday as an example of a last-minute recipe, so I could show you a photo of it today. Instead, I am making it today in solidarity with my last-minute kin.)
Our other last-minute picks from NYT Cooking (no subscription needed to read these):
Or, browse the full Super Bowl recipes collection. Let us know if you made anything we’ve suggested this week!
Pulse Picks
I thought this was so interesting earlier this week: inside the Birmingham City revolution, which will be the best soccer story “of the next decade.” Read that here.
Here in New Orleans, Larry Holder and I competed to see who could get the best Super Bowl merch haul for $150. Please go vote for me in the comments.
Did you see the video of a fan breaking the Jimmy Butler trade news to the Heat bench? Jared Weiss found him for a story.
Speaking of: We have the inside story, with juicy details, on Butler’s exit from Miami. Pat Riley cries in it. Also, Kevin Durant almost landed in Minnesota.
Additionally, Dan Santaromita looked at how the NBA title odds shifted after the trade deadline.
Lastly, it’s time for the NBA buyout market to shine. John Hollinger ranks the candidates who could be available to move.
Most-clicked in the newsletter Friday: Our NFL MVP voting breakdown.
Most-read on the website yesterday: Mike Sando’s collection of NFL coach insights and picks for the Super Bowl.
(Top photo: Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)
