For small businesses, the biggest change in the new year will be the arrival of a presumably more business-friendly administration in Washington. But there are other shifts owners should keep on their radar.
Among them: changes to state-level overtime and minimum wage rules, the delayed federal FinCEN registration, taxes on payments from third-party providers like Venmo and PayPal, and anything that might affect inflation, including tariffs.
The Small Business Administration is also ushering in a new leader, Trump loyalist Kelly Loeffler, assuming she’s confirmed by the Senate.
“I think there a general sense that there is going to be obviously a pro-business administration on the regulatory side,” said Karen Kerrigan, President and CEO of the Small Business & Entrepreneurship Council, an advocacy group. “But there could be some nuances specifically on, say, workplace or labor rules. But that’s still to be determined.”
Here’s what small business owners should keep in mind in 2025.
Inflation remains a wild card for 2025. Inflation has retreated from its peak of 7.2% in June 2022, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge, standing at 2.3% in October. Moves by the Federal Reserve and the incoming Trump administration are likely to swing inflation one way or another.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised its projection for the inflation rate for 2025 to 2.5% from a prior estimate of 2.1% issued in September. The Fed also forecast just two rate cuts for the year, down from four. Sticky inflation and high rates could mean higher costs for both consumers and businesses.
Meanwhile, Trump has proposed a range of tax cuts — on Social Security benefits, tipped income and overtime income — as well as a scaling-back of regulations. Collectively, these moves could stimulate growth. At the same time, Trump has threatened to impose a variety of tariffs on imports and to seek mass deportations of migrants, which could accelerate inflation.
Either way, inflation is certain to remain top of mind for small business owners.
“What we’ve seen for the past two-and-a-half years is that inflation is the top concern for small business,” said Tom Sullivan, vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “When you’re thinking about 2025, there is a significant question on whether or not the incoming president’s policies are going to bring inflation down.”
Established in 1953, the SBA has been through many different administrations. The agency offers resources to small businesses and helps administer small business and disaster recovery loans. It played a crucial role during the pandemic, helping distribute small business aid.
Trump said he would nominate Kelly Loeffler, a former U.S. Senator from Georgia, as the head of the SBA, pending confirmation. She replaces Isabella Casillas Guzman, who has served as the administrator since 2021. A staunch Trump loyalist, Loeffler is also co-chair of his inaugural committee.
Loeffler hasn’t made any statement about plans for the SBA.
“I wouldn’t expect any sort of dramatic change or shifts in terms lending and some of those programs, I think that will happen over time,” said SBE Council’s Kerrigan.
While a national federal rule expanding overtime coverage to millions of Americans was blocked by a federal judge in November, several states still have an overtime threshold increase going into effect, and those aren’t affected by the block.
Six states are raising their threshold for overtime pay: Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, New York and Washington. For example, in Alaska, the state threshold to be exempt from overtime pay will rise from $48,796.80 in 2024 to $54,080 on July 1.
“Employers will need to be aware of those thresholds and make sure that they’re complying with state law if they have employees in any of those states,” said Tyler Yamnik, an employment attorney and human resources consultant for HR firm Engage PEO.
Meanwhile, 23 states and 65 cities and counties have minimum wage increases set to go into effect in 2025, either Jan. 1 or later in the year.
Rich Kingly, CEO of Driveway King in Garwood, N.J., which renovates pathways and driveways, said he’s watching the state-specific minimum wage changes.
“As we operate in multiple states, staying compliant with each state’s rules and regulations is an ongoing challenge,” he said. “As minimum wage rates rise, it adds to the financial pressures of running a business, especially in the face of fluctuating material costs and competitive pricing.”
A rule that would require millions of small businesses to register with an agency called the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, or FinCEN, by Jan. 1 is currently temporarily blocked in court.
The registration is part of the Corporate Transparency Act, an anti-money laundering statue passed in 2021. Registering isn’t difficult. The owners and part-owners of those businesses must register personal information with FinCEN, such as a photo ID and home address.
But small business groups say the regulation is too onerous. If it goes into effect, small businesses that don’t comply could be fined up to $10,000. Businesses with more than 20 employees and more than $5 million in sales can qualify for exemptions.
Steve DiMatteo, CEO of e-commerce site Cleveland Vintage Shirts, said he had trouble tracking down information about the registration because government communication was lacking. He sought guidance from an X account that helps small businesses.
“My biggest concern stems from this experience — what other rules and regulations am I going to miss because of a lack of clear communication from the government, either at the state or federal level?,” he said.
Another regulation that has been on small businesses’ radar for several years is taxes on payments via third-party apps like PayPal, Cash App, Venmo and similar platforms.
Traditionally, the threshold to report earnings from payments from third-party apps was $20,000 and 200 transactions. But the American Rescue Act drastically lowered that to $600 and over with no transaction minimum.
The regulation was delayed for the past two years, but small businesses paying taxes for 2024 will now be required to pay taxes on anything over $5,000 as part of a phase-in to eventually implement the $600 reporting threshold.
