Election analyst Nate Silver has President Donald Trump up in his latest forecast.
Nate Silver’s 2024 election forecast:
🔴 Trump: 53.8%
🔵 Harris: 45.8% pic.twitter.com/nCSIHcHlJW— Kyle James (@KyleJamesLive) November 1, 2024
Silver also managed to get a lot of people talking when he called out polls for trying to keep the race close, which he termed “herding” or “cheating,” saying they couldn’t all be coming out within one point.
Warning for graphic language:
Nate Silver to pollsters: “You’re f*cking herding. You’re cheating … Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying. You’re putting your f*cking finger on the scale.” pic.twitter.com/kowED2GiBd
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 31, 2024
He said the race has moved toward Trump since early October. Then he started mocking the polls, saying, “Every state is a plus 1! Every single state’s a tie! No, you’re f**ing cheating!”
You’re cheating … Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly one-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying. You’re putting your f*cking finger on the scale.”
He namechecked Emerson but didn’t explain why he found Emerson particularly offensive. Emerson has Trump and Harris at a tie nationally.
“If a pollster never publishes any numbers that surprises you, then it has no value,” he said.
Silver blasted most other pollsters except for the New York Times, saying the rest were “just f–king punting on this election for the most part.”
One of the things the NYT/Siena is showing is that Trump is leading with huge numbers for new voters in the battleground states — the folks with no or low propensity voting records.
The NYT Poll in the battleground states confirms what our polling has showed for more than two years.
For the first time in my lifetime, normies with no to low prop voting records are insane numbers for Trump.
Meaning, if Republicans vote, Democrats really have no chance.
— Rich Baris The People’s Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) October 31, 2024
Canvassers on the ground are telling me they’re knocking on doors they haven’t visited in over 10 years of volunteering.
The latest Siena polling backs this up:
• No Voting Record ➡️ Trump +19
• 2020 Election Only ➡️ Trump +12— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) October 31, 2024
That included people who may have only voted in the 2020 election.
Then, as far as the other folks who aren’t “herding,” there’s also Atlas Intel, who doesn’t have them at just a tie or 1 point up.
#NEW – Electoral Map Based on @atlas_intel polling (full field)
🟥 Trump 312 🏆
🟦 Harris 226
——
Arizona – 🔴 Trump +4.9
North Carolina – 🔴 Trump +4.0
Nevada – 🔴 Trump +3.6
Georgia – 🔴 Trump +1.6
Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump +1.1
Michigan – 🔴 Trump +0.9
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump +0.3… https://t.co/gpLZ59xJG6 pic.twitter.com/N0Mf2mQ0AT— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 31, 2024
Plus they have more polling between now and Election Day coming.
We’ll know soon, but obviously, get anyone you haven’t got out yet to vote so we can make it happen.
READ MORE: Shock Poll in PA and More Intriguing News on Toss-Up States
