SUZUKA, Japan — Six months ago at Suzuka, as he stood trackside watching Formula One practice, Sebastian Vettel felt a twinge of regret that he was not still out there driving the cars.
Vettel had returned to his favorite race track — where he won the Japanese Grand Prix four times — to launch a new ‘Buzzin’ Corner’ biodiversity project. And as much as he missed the thrill of driving, he wasn’t having second thoughts about his retirement at the end of 2022. “At some point, it’s probably time for all of us to move on,” he said.
Yet as F1 returns to Suzuka this weekend, Vettel’s stance appears to have softened. He recently whet his appetite for racing by testing a Porsche Le Mans Hypercar, opening the door to a potential debut at the 24-hour classic later this year. And in a series of interviews with British broadcasters this week, he admitted to pondering an F1 comeback, even if it was “not the main thought.”
Asked on Sky News if he was talking to Mercedes, the four-time world champion said: “I’m speaking to Toto (Wolff), I don’t know if that qualifies as Mercedes,” before adding he was talking to lots of F1 team principals about “ideas that I have, events that I’m planning going forwards.” Environmental causes have become his big post-F1 passion.
The prospect of Vettel returning to F1 excited Lewis Hamilton — once his fierce title rival and, in the final years of Vettel’s F1 career, a close friend and ally for social causes — particularly as his potential replacement at Mercedes.
“I would love for Seb to come back,” Hamilton said Thursday. “I think it would be an amazing option for the team: (a) German driver, multi-world championship-winning driver, someone who has got amazing values and will continue to take this team forward.
“I’d love it if he came back.”
Lewis Hamilton (left) likes the idea of Mercedes replacing him with Sebastian Vettel (right). (Kym Illman/Getty Images)
It makes Vettel an interesting variable in what is already shaping up to be a volatile driver market for 2025. Hamilton’s upcoming move to Ferrari blew a hole in ‘silly season’ expectations, which were further roiled by suggestions Max Verstappen could leave Red Bull amid the turbulence at the team.
Asked on Friday at Suzuka if Vettel was a consideration to replace Hamilton, Wolff said the ex-Red Bull and Ferrari driver was “someone that you can never discount.”
“I think his track record is phenomenal and sometimes maybe taking a break is also good to reevaluate what’s important for you and re-find your motivation,” Wolff added. But he stressed Mercedes was in zero rush to make a decision.
“It’s much too early for us to commit to a driver, whether very young or whether very experienced” Wolff said. “(So) the next few months will give us more clues.”
Has he whittled down the shortlist? “Yes.” Would he put a number on it? “No.”
Verstappen’s future is the key
The driver likely at the top of that list is currently unavailable to Mercedes: Verstappen.
The three-time world champion is under contract at Red Bull until 2028. Through the recent power struggle and scrutiny at the team, coming in the aftermath of allegations made against team principal Christian Horner and the dismissal of a grievance raised against him, Verstappen has always said that it was his intention to honor that.
Yet in Saudi Arabia, when it emerged Red Bull adviser Helmut Marko, a key supporter of Verstappen, was facing scrutiny over his own future, Verstappen drew a line: Without Marko, he could not see himself racing for Red Bull. Horner responded by saying a driver couldn’t be forced to stay at a team just because of a contract.
If Verstappen were to leave Red Bull, Mercedes would be his obvious option. Wolff has always regretted getting beaten to signing a young Verstappen by Red Bull, which could immediately offer him an F1 seat with its junior team, Toro Rosso (now RB). He has remained close to Verstappen’s father, Jos — the pair were seen talking in Bahrain at the height of tension within Red Bull.
Suggestions Max Verstappen could leave Red Bull have further roiled an already frenzied driver market for 2025. (Kazuhiro NOGI / AFP)
The idea of signing Verstappen for next year is something Wolff has always appeared, at least publicly, to consider a long shot. Right now, Mercedes has the fourth-quickest car and has struggled to understand why it cannot get things right under these regulations. For Verstappen to give up the dominant car and bet on Mercedes getting things right upon the next regulation change in 2026 would be a major risk.
It’s something Fernando Alonso, himself a player in the market for next year and a likely candidate for the Mercedes seat should he look outside of Aston Martin, thought there was “zero chance” of happening, simply explaining it was “my feeling.” (If Verstappen were to become available for 2025, Aston Martin owner Lawrence Stroll would surely open his wallet in pursuit.)
When Alonso’s comment was put to Verstappen, the Dutchman joked that his future for 2025 “depends if I want to also drive next year or not.” He added more seriously: “I’m very happy where I’m at. And yeah, we want to keep it that way.”
So long as Verstappen is kept happy, seemingly by ensuring key allies such as Marko remain close by his side, there’s little reason to think he’ll go elsewhere. It would leave Mercedes weighing up other options.
Youth versus experience
In early February, a day after Hamilton announced his move to Ferrari, Wolff had a certain degree of excitement about the decision that lay ahead, noting there was a chance to do “something bold.”
The comment seemed to allude to the possibility of putting Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes’ 17-year-old phenom currently racing in Formula Two, straight into its F1 seat next year. Antonelli’s start to his rookie F2 season has been tricky, only yielding a best result of fourth so far as his Prema team stuttered with the new F2 car. (Teammate Ollie Bearman only has a best finish of ninth, yet his Ferrari cameo in Jeddah proved how ready he is for F1.)
Antonelli remains an exciting prospect for Mercedes’ future, and plans are in place for him to begin a private F1 testing program with running in Austria later this month. Wolff joked on Friday at Suzuka he would be driving the 2021 Mercedes car, its last championship winner, because he wanted Antonelli to know “what a really good car feels like” before giving him the most recent available machinery, the troublesome 2022 model.
Despite his slow start this year in F2, Mercedes sees Andrea Kimi Antonelli as a big part of its future. (Michael Potts/BSR Agency/Getty Images)
“We’re keen to see what he’s able to do in a Formula One car,” Wolff said. “Ollie Bearman was refreshing to look at how competitive he was in Saudi Arabia. No free practice (on a) high-speed, complicated track, and he was right up there. So Kimi would be doing just fine.”
Even prior to Hamilton’s decision to leave for Ferrari, an eventual pairing of Antonelli and George Russell, who will take over the leadership role going into next year, was on the cards. And if Antonelli weren’t to race for Mercedes next year, it’s unlikely Wolff would struggle to find him a seat: Williams team principal James Vowles played a key part in Antonelli’s development in his previous role at Mercedes, and remains a huge fan of the Italian.
For Mercedes to go for a more experienced head such as Alonso or Vettel — the latter definitely being more of a wildcard — would surely serve the team only for a couple of years, with the view to getting Antonelli alongside Russell. Carlos Sainz, a driver whose stock is at an all-time high after his win in Australia, wants to move quickly to resolve his future, something that seems at odds with Mercedes’ plan to give things time.
Only Verstappen would serve as an interesting enough option, so impossible to ignore, that it could seriously compromise the long-term vision at Brackley.
Is Vettel returning a serious possibility?
Hamilton said he’d given “zero” thought to who might replace him for next year, as much as he’d talked up Vettel as a potential candidate. “The only thing I really care about is that the team takes on someone with integrity, and that is aligned with the team and where the team’s going,” Hamilton said. “Someone compassionate that’s able to work with great people and continues to lift them up.”
It’s something Wolff will undoubtedly be mindful of when deciding on Hamilton’s replacement. The team culture has always been one of Mercedes’ strongest assets, particularly through the recent difficult years. Wolff has previously spoken of his belief in a “no d***heads” policy, a mantra adopted from the New Zealand All Blacks rugby team. Integrity above anything.
“I think his track record is phenomenal and sometimes maybe taking a break is also good to reevaluate what’s important for you and re-find your motivation,” Wolff said of Sebastian Vettel. (ODD ANDERSEN/AFP via Getty Images)
Someone like Vettel would bring that to Mercedes in heaps, there’s no doubt. And we’ve seen with drivers such as Alonso and Kimi Raikkonen how a couple of years away can prove invigorating. There’d still be a degree of risk for Mercedes, particularly as the latter years of Vettel’s time in F1 hardly mirrored the form of his peak with Red Bull in the early 2010s.
Even if there was interest, would an F1 return really suit Vettel? At a time he is so invested in his outside projects — he announced earlier this week a second ‘Buzzin’ Corner’ biodiversity site has been set up at the Okayama circuit — and his environmental passion remains, going back in for a 24-race schedule would be a big ask.
If he wanted to regain the thrill of racing that he misses, something like a Le Mans outing with Porsche may be a less demanding way to achieve that goal — as incredible a story as it would be for him to make an F1 comeback with Mercedes.
(Lead photo of Sebastian Vettel attending the 2023 Japanese GP: Clive Rose/Getty Images)
