Few things in football have transformed the game like the Video Assistant Referee (VAR). Its impact extends beyond the pitch. The technology has introduced a new layer of uncertainty for bettors, as goals can be awarded or overturned in ways that can significantly affect outcomes.
With match results now hinging on fine margins, how does VAR impact betting strategies? Does it make live betting riskier? And how can bettors adapt to these sudden fluctuations? Here’s a break down of VAR’s role in the betting landscape, and how punters can navigate the unpredictability it brings.
How is VAR shaping the betting landscape?
Since VAR was introduced to the Premier League in 2019, the accuracy of officiating has substantially improved. This season, key decision errors by referees have decreased from 80 to 64 compared to last year, with correct interventions rising to 66 out of 70.
But VAR is not without its drawbacks. Critics argue that it disrupts the game’s flow. The technology relies on subjective interpretation, meaning that decisions can still be controversial based on how referees enforce the rules.
Additionally, a lack of transparency in the decision-making process can lead to frustration among fans and players, which breeds distrust in the system.
Another impact of VAR is on live betting. With decisions sometimes taking minutes to confirm, odds can fluctuate dramatically, creating uncertainty for bettors.
A prime example is Luis Díaz’s disallowed goal for Liverpool against Tottenham in 2023. Due to a communication breakdown, VAR officials mistakenly believed the on-field decision was to award the goal and failed to rectify an incorrect offside call. By the time the error was recognized, play had already restarted, making intervention impossible.
Those who placed live wagers on the Reds had their bets instantly devalued, while the odds were adjusted to reflect the decision.
The sudden shift in expected outcomes highlights how VAR can cause volatility in live betting markets, rewarding some punters while frustrating others. Such incidents expose the risks inherent of live betting, where an officiating error — even one later acknowledged as a mistake — can have financial repercussions in real-time.
Which markets are likely to be impacted the most?
Match result and correct score
Bettors backing a team to win or a specific scoreline may see their wagers lose value while the opposing side benefits.
A prime example occurred in the 2020 match between Aston Villa and Sheffield United, where the visitors were not awarded a clear goal due to a goal-line technology failure. VAR did not intervene, and the game ended in a 0-0 draw instead of a likely 1-0 win for the Blades.
Total goals (over-under)
VAR decisions heavily influence over-under bets, as disallowed goals can make or break a wager. In the 2023 tie between West Ham and Chelsea, a late West Ham winner was disallowed for a foul in the buildup. The match ended in a 1-1 draw, resulting in losses for those who bet on over 2.5 goals, while those who backed under 2.5 goals benefited from the decision.
First and anytime goalscorer
The uncertainty surrounding VAR also affects goalscorer markets. During the 2024 Carabao Cup final, Raheem Sterling believed he scored Chelsea’s opening goal, but VAR ruled that Nicolas Jackson was offside, disallowing the goal. Instead, it was Virgil van Dijk who scored in the 118th minute. Bettors who put their money on Sterling as the first goalscorer lost what seemed like a winning wager, while those who took a chance on the higher odds for Van Dijk unexpectedly profited.
Penalties
VAR frequently plays a crucial role in awarding or overturning penalties. In the 2020 showdown between Brighton and Manchester United, VAR awarded United a penalty after the final whistle for a handball. Bruno Fernandes converted it, securing a 3-2 win. Bettors who backed United to win saw their losing bet turn into a winner, while those who bet on a draw or against a penalty were shocked by the late turn of events.
Red cards
VAR impacts the red card market by upgrading yellow cards or rescinding dismissals, which can shift in-game odds and total card bets. In the 2024 clash between Sheffield and Brighton, VAR upgraded Mason Holgate’s yellow card to a red after a high challenge. This change immediately favoured bettors punting on the total number of cards, as well as those who had tipped the Seagulls to win.
What if VAR is ‘wrong’ or produces controversial calls?
While VAR aims to improve fairness by reducing human error, it has also sparked controversy by directly affecting title-chasing, top-four, European and relegation permutations.
A notable example took place during the Arsenal vs Brentford match in 2023. The title-chasing Gunners were leading 1-0 thanks to a goal from Leandro Trossard. In the 74th minute, Brentford equalized through Ivan Toney, but VAR failed to detect that Christian Nørgaard, who assisted the goal, was offside. The VAR official, Lee Mason, mistakenly focused on a different player, allowing the goal to stand. The error cost Arsenal two crucial points in the title race, and Mason later left PGMOL (Professional Game Match Officials Board).
The emotional impact of these decisions can also influence betting behaviour. Frustrated bettors may chase losses or make impulsive wagers in response to incorrect and unfavourable calls.
Some of those calls can still haunt the memories of collective fanbases years later. Liverpool supporters can recall the 2013 face-off with Manchester City where Sterling was wrongly flagged offside after scoring. The Reds lost 2-1, which proved decisive as City won the title by just two points. While VAR wasn’t in place at that time, it could have corrected the call and potentially changed the course of the season.
This season, the outlook might’ve changed, but it’s Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal who are complaining their title ambitions have been dashed by the technology. Their odds to win the league have taken a substantial hit in the last few weeks.
How can bettors navigate the complexity of VAR?
Team analysis
Understanding how teams adapt to VAR allows bettors to make more informed wagers. High defensive lines — like those from Arsenal, Tottenham and Chelsea — are more vulnerable to offside calls, potentially nullifying goals. Looking back at previous seasons’ metrics can also be helpful. Last year, Wolves had the league’s worst VAR record, with seven decisions leading to red cards, disallowed goals or opponent penalties.
Market selection
Focusing on VAR-resistant markets like total corners or bookings can reduce risk, as these events are rarely overturned. Bookmakers often undervalue these niche markets, creating opportunities for higher payouts. Bettors who analyse patterns and spot discrepancies between bookmaker odds and actual probabilities will become more skilled in maximising their payouts.
Timing of bets
Timing wagers are crucial in the VAR era, especially for live betting. Placing bets during stoppages or post-VAR reviews minimises exposure to sudden odds shifts. With interventions averaging 55-64 seconds, delays can impact momentum and player performance. Monitoring matches closely and betting strategically during these breaks helps bettors avoid unnecessary volatility.
Love it or loathe it, VAR has changed the betting game. Goals are given, then chalked off, penalties are awarded after the final whistle and red cards vanish after review. The system’s unpredictability has made live betting more volatile than ever, turning guaranteed payouts into sudden losses and long shots into surprise wins.
For bettors, the key is not to fight the chaos but to adapt to it. Understanding how teams and referees interact with VAR, choosing markets less affected by reversals, and staying disciplined in the face of controversy can make all the difference.
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