It’s hard to believe we’re finally at the “one week to go” mark for the election, with new information hitting each day that makes you want to feel cautiously optimistic about what may be in store for the country on November 5th.
But considering the “Red Wave” that wasn’t in 2022, many conservatives are (understandably) afraid to feel that way because the disappointment so many of us felt two years ago was palpable.
The good news is that in some states, we have more than just polling data; we have hard early voting data showing us at the very least which side appears to have the momentum going into Election Day.
Before we get into the updated numbers as they relate to what’s going on in North Carolina, let’s recall the story from one week ago from NBC News where we learned there were real concerns among Harris-Walz campaign officials that the state was “slipping” away from her grasp.
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The Old North State, the NBC News report noted, was considered by the Harris team as an “insurance” state for Harris in the event she lost the so-called “blue wall” state of Pennsylvania. But one official told the news outlet at the time that out of all the battleground states, they felt that North Carolina was “a little bit slipping away.”
While not much was given in the way of an explanation for why they felt that way beyond the Hurricane Helene devastation, RedState pointed to the fact that the black early vote numbers were significantly down from previous election cycles and early voting numbers were showing a strong GOP edge in turnout.
In an update to this story, it would appear that the Harris campaign continues to feel like the state is becoming out of reach for them:
👀 Harris pulling back her TV buy and Democrats continue to lag 350,000 votes behind their 2020 #ncpol Early Voting pace… https://t.co/9WLsR0YZgv
— Jim Blaine (@JimBlaine) October 29, 2024
Further, another analysis from Blaine, a former chief of staff for Republican State Senate Leader Phil Berger, indicates that Democrat claims of the GOP “cannibalizing” their typical Election Day voting strength are overblown:
20 Election Day voters yet to vote by party:
R: 278,389
D: 192,517
U: 269,693
Relatedly, black early voting numbers are still down in the state, which is not good for Democrats. And while we’re seeing more unaffiliated voters vote this year, that could be another good sign for the GOP, as veteran Democrat political consultant Thomas Mills explained:
The unaffiliated voters have been voting at much higher rates this year than in the past. While most are regular voters, about 14% are first time voters. Unsurprisingly, those voters are younger. More than two-thirds of the new voters are under 45 years old, which should be good for Democrats. Overall, though, unaffiliated voters are older with almost half over 55 years old, meaning they probably lean pretty heavily Republican.
[…]
North Carolina Democrats are still missing a lot of Black voters. They have about a 54,000 African American voter deficit compared to the 2020 in-person early voters, a gap that has held steady since late last week after shrinking the first few days of the week.
While the polling for North Carolina still shows a close race, what’s happening on the ground could be what’s causing the Harris campaign to panic a bit about the state and shift their campaign dollars elsewhere.
We will of course find out for sure one way or the other in one week. As always, keep it here for the latest developments.
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