Democrats pulled a switcheroo with Joe Biden, knowing they were going to go down to defeat with him, after his disastrous debate made it impossible to hide his cognitive decline anymore.
Democrats are trying to whip up excitement over Kamala Harris. But are they going to be in any better position with Harris?
People were pointing to a Reuters poll that had Harris up by two percentage points. But that also had Democrats oversampled:
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
Then if you look at the recent, Real Clear Politics national polls, Trump is still up 1.7 percent in the average:
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
As CNN’s data analyst Harry Enten explained, this is a big difference from 2020 and spells trouble in the Electoral College, if this holds. Biden was up in 2020 by four points in the national vote and barely made it in the official count in the Electoral College. Now, the RCP polling has Trump up 1.7, a more than five-point difference.
READ MORE: CNN’s Harry Enten Drops the Reality Hammer on Kamala Harris’ Dreams
Now, what does that mean for the Electoral College and the math?
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
With the light pink “leans” of Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has 251 to Harris’ 226. The tans are the toss-ups/battleground states — Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
If you look at the math, Republicans only need 19, Democrats need 44, assuming the map holds.
Democrats still have fewer ways than Republicans to 270. Democrats have three possible winning combinations. They absolutely have to have Pennsylvania. Republicans have five, and all they need to do is win Pennsylvania, if they hold onto the “leans” in Georgia and North Carolina. Hence, why Pennsylvania is so important.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) July 27, 2024
How is Trump doing in the battleground states now? Bottom line? It doesn’t look good for Harris at this point, with the latest report. Trump is ahead or tied except in one state in a new nine-state survey by Redfield and Wilton:
While Harris leads Trump in Minnesota 44% to 41% (with Robert Kennedy Jr. at 6%), and the two are tied in Wisconsin at 44% each (with 5% to Kennedy), the other numbers go the former president’s way.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @RedfieldWilton
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+4)
🟦 Harris: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
MICHIGAN
🟥 Trump: 44% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 7%
—
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump: 47% (+5)
🟦 Harris: 42%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
—
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump: 46% (+3)
🟦 Harris: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 4%
—
NEVADA… pic.twitter.com/bRKvcPcsny— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 26, 2024
In Arizona, Trump is up 46 to 43 percent with Kennedy at 4 percent. They toss in Florida (which I don’t even think is a battleground state this year, although historically it has been). Trump is over Harris, 47 to 39 percent with Kennedy at 5 percent. Trump is up five points in Georgia, 4 to 42 percent, with Kennedy at 3 percent. In Michigan, Trump is ahead 44 to 41, with Kennedy at 7 percent. Nevada is at 45 to 43 percent, still for Trump, with Kennedy taking 5 percent. Trump is also ahead in North Carolina at 46 to 43 percent, with Kennedy at 4 percent. In the essential state of Pennsylvania, Trump is up by four points, 46 to 42, with 5 percent for Kenned:.
Emerson College polling conducted July 22 and 23 shows Trump with marginal leads in Arizona (+5), Georgia (+2), Michigan (+1) and Pennsylvania (+2).
And just like in the Redfield and Wilton survey, Emerson has the two candidates in a dead heat in Wisconsin.
SWING STATE POLLS with @thehill
Harris v. Trump
Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 44%
Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Michigan: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 47%https://t.co/KzHiYgQQU4 pic.twitter.com/uTc2QYntcc— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) July 25, 2024
Arizona: Trump 49%, Harris 44%
Georgia: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Michigan: Trump 46%, Harris 45%
Pennsylvania: Trump 48%, Harris 46%
Wisconsin: Trump 47%, Harris 47%
Here’s what the map would look like there, if that bore out:
BREAKING: Trump beats Harris by 44 electoral votes based on Emerson polling.
Trump: 286
Harris: 242 pic.twitter.com/CjmOjTUeup— Leading Report (@LeadingReport) July 27, 2024
While the Democrats may be trying to create a groundswell over Harris, right now that’s more smoke and mirrors than anything else. This is before she even faces any real attacks/ads against her for all her issues; this is in the “honeymoon bloom” period.” She may get another bounce after their convention — assuming she is picked and/or the protests against the Democrats don’t completely throw the convention into chaos.
The point is despite all the machinations, the Democrats are still down with Kamala. Going forward, she isn’t going to fare well when it comes to the issues that people care about and how she covered up Biden’s cognitive decline, as the GOP pounds those points home.
