This is what it looks like when a team simply runs out of pitching.
This is why the oft-repeated “marathon, not a sprint” cliche about the grind of a six-month, 162-game season is rooted in reality and decades of lessons learned the hard way by teams just like these Minnesota Twins.
And this is exactly what Twins fans feared when ownership slashed payroll by $30 million coming off the team’s first playoff success in two decades.
It’s now been over a month as one of baseball’s worst teams for the Twins, who are just 10-20 since Aug. 18. Only the Los Angeles Angels and Chicago White Sox have worse records for that 33-day period in which the Twins’ chances of repeating as American League Central champions vanished and their overall playoff odds shrank from 95 percent to basically a coin flip.
Consistent offensive production has been rare during that stretch, with the banged-up lineup scoring just 3.8 runs per game — 23rd out of 30 teams — since Aug. 18, but the hitting struggles pale in comparison to the complete and utter collapse of the Twins’ pitching. As a staff, the Twins rank 27th in ERA (4.67) and dead last in Win Probability Added (-3.09) during that span.
Their rotation, which was once filled entirely by veterans and now features three rookies, ranks 22nd in ERA (4.30) and 23rd in WPA (-0.16) since Aug. 18. And that’s despite Pablo López going 4-0 with a 1.11 ERA in six starts. Their other four starters — Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews — have combined to go 1-11 with a 5.53 ERA.
Their bullpen, which lost Brock Stewart to a season-ending shoulder injury in late July and received zero help at the trade deadline, ranks 28th in ERA (5.17) and 30th in WPA (-2.93) since Aug. 18. Once-dominant closer Jhoan Duran, whose velocity has been down all season, is 0-4 with a 6.10 ERA in that time, posting the eighth-worst WPA (-0.77) of any AL reliever.
The @CleGuardians walk it off and secure a #postseason berth! pic.twitter.com/SPglsx6sGL
— MLB (@MLB) September 19, 2024
Injuries have been a big factor, as the Twins have played this entire brutal stretch without one of the staff’s top-three relievers (Stewart) and top-three starters (Joe Ryan). However, they can’t explain away this level of systemic ineptitude, and shouldn’t provide cover for the front office also whiffing on every offseason and trade deadline pitching move.
They bet on 34-year-old Anthony DeSclafani, acquired in a January trade after being injured for the second half of last season, to provide back-of-the-rotation stability and delay the need to dip into minor-league starter depth. DeSclafani never threw a pitch for the Twins, suffering a season-ending injury in spring training that forced a rookie into the opening rotation.
They bet on 33-year-old Justin Topa, acquired with DeSclafani in the Jorge Polanco trade, and 33-year-old Steven Okert, swapped for Nick Gordon just before spring training, to fill secondary setup roles in the bullpen. Topa, like DeSclafani, hasn’t thrown a pitch this season, and Okert was cut in August after posting a 5.09 ERA and team-worst -1.84 WPA in 35 1/3 innings.
They bet on 36-year-old Jay Jackson and 30-year-old Josh Staumont, a pair of scrap-heap free-agent signings, to handle medium-leverage relief roles. Neither veteran gained enough trust to be used beyond mop-up situations, and both were released in July after combining for a 5.68 ERA across 50 2/3 innings of mostly low-leverage work.
By the time the trade deadline arrived on July 30, it was obvious the Twins needed pitching help. DeSclafani was lost for the year and Stewart was all but certain to join him. Topa was uncertain to contribute and Chris Paddack was shut down for a second time. Jackson and Staumont had been released, and Okert was hanging onto his roster spot by a thread.
And yet the only deadline move the Twins made was for Trevor Richards, a 31-year-old reliever with a 4.64 ERA this season, a 4.95 ERA last season and a 4.51 ERA in his career. They bet on Richards soaking up medium-leverage innings, cheaply, and even that went bust. He was cut four weeks later after totaling 11 walks, seven wild pitches and two hit batters in 13 messy frames.
“Richards is a three pitch guy, a fastball, a change-up, and a wild pitch.” 😭 pic.twitter.com/bWNEvpgXBp
— Jomboy Media (@JomboyMedia) August 24, 2024
Any view of the Twins’ offseason and midseason moves should be through a lens of ownership slashing payroll by $30 million, which severely limited the front office’s options and left little choice but to shop in the scratch-and-dent aisle. But even within that context of the obstacles faced by the front office, the pitching moves flopped to an extreme degree.
They went 0-for-6 with DeSclafani, Jackson, Staumont, Okert, Richards and Topa, none of whom are even on the September roster after combining for a 5.27 ERA in 99 innings. They also badly misjudged Paddack’s durability and effectiveness as he returned from a second Tommy John surgery, leaving a hole in the rotation to be filled by rookies for the entire second half.
It should come as no surprise that leaning on rookies to fill three rotation spots hasn’t gone smoothly. But if anything, Woods Richardson, Festa and Matthews — a 23-year-old and two 24-year-olds with a total of one career big-league start coming into the season — have performed to reasonable expectations with a combined 4.64 ERA in 45 starts. They’re fading, though.
Woods Richardson stepped up in a massive way after being thrust into the April rotation, but he’s predictably worn down while surpassing his career-high workload. Festa has flashed upside mixed with overall shakiness, the textbook definition of pitching like a rookie. And the jump from High A to the majors has understandably overwhelmed Matthews at times.
Ryan’s early August injury can be viewed as the inflection point at which the rotation went from three veterans and two rookies to a rookie majority, and the pitching staff’s collapse began about two weeks later. But any plan that involved counting on Paddack and DeSclafani to hold down two spots was flawed from the beginning, and things have unraveled from there.
Similarly, the loss of Stewart removed one of the few reliable arms from a bullpen that has fallen into disarray. Griffin Jax and Cole Sands have been excellent and Duran is still capable of being very good, but manager Rocco Baldelli’s other buttons to push — Ronny Henriquez? Caleb Thielbar? Cole Irvin? Jorge Alcala? Louie Varland? Michael Tonkin? — all lead to chaos.
The @CleGuardians with a #walkoff win thanks to Brayan Rocchio! pic.twitter.com/jlG6KB0Upq
— MLB (@MLB) September 19, 2024
Now it’s late September and the Twins are in a three-way fight for the AL’s final playoff berth, with two starters and 2 1/2 relievers they actually trust. This is exactly what fans feared, last November when the planned payroll cuts were revealed, all winter as the low-wattage offseason moves trickled in and at the trade deadline when July 30 came and went with no meaningful help.
When a team cuts payroll by $30 million, whiffs on every pitching move for 10 months, doesn’t even bother to do anything of note at the trade deadline and then fades badly down the stretch with a flammable pitching staff that ranks among the worst in baseball, it’s hard to hide from the criticism that rightfully will follow. Reap what you sow, get what you pay for, etc.
Regardless of how the blame gets distributed among the owners, the front office, the injuries and the players themselves, the end result was the Twins running out of pitching miles before the end of a six-month marathon. Now we’ll see if they can at least stumble across the finish line in time to secure a spot for the annual October sprint.
(Top photo of Jhoan Duran: David Richard / Imagn Images)
