The poll momentum has all seemed to be going in former President Donald Trump’s way lately.
After Kamala Harris bombed her Wednesday interview with Fox’s Bret Baier, it’s likely to move more in his direction. We’ll keep an eye on that as the numbers come out and it will be fascinating to see how independents viewed it. I think she didn’t help herself by once again failing to answer the questions that people have about what she would do. It was a train wreck in terms of providing any answers or acting presidential.
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But even as that was aired yesterday, the forecasts were already moving more to Trump and are even better now.
Polymarket betting forecast has moved significantly toward Trump. According to Polymarket, they just went up more than 2 percent since the interview.
.@Polymarket – Presidential Election Winner
🟥 Donald Trump: 62% (new high)
🟦 Kamala Harris: 38%Sept. 19 odds – 🔵 Harris 52-47%
——
Swing States (chance of winning)Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 59-41%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 56-44%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 56-44%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump… https://t.co/4ZJaKnZhlO pic.twitter.com/rXde9Cqm4w— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2024
So the betting markets saw that as a crash and burn for Harris as well, and although we’ll want to continue to check how that evolves, it looks like that’s a fair assessment of it at this point. That gives Trump a new high in their forecast. The tweet above showed him leading in every swing state except Nevada, which is tied. They also have the odds of Republicans capturing the Senate at 80 percent which you can see in the tweet below.
Now Nate Silver has decided he can’t fight the tide of the polls and has also moved back to Trump in his forecast, 50.2 to 49.5 percent, a big move away from Harris.
#NEW – @NateSilver538 Forecast (chance of winning the electoral college)
September 27
🟦 Harris: 58.1%
🟥 Trump: 41.7%October 17
🟥 Trump: 50.2%
🟦 Harris: 49.5%
——@Polymarket Senate Odds
🟥 Republicans: 80%Polymarket swing states odds 👇https://t.co/BBwAM9ruC4 pic.twitter.com/iiRSWKVryB
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2024
The RealClearPolitics average has Trump ahead in every battleground state except Wisconsin, where the difference is just 0.3 percent in Kamala’s favor. RCP has Harris up in the national popular vote at just 1.5 percent at this point. Given the electoral college bias that we’ve seen in prior years, that’s bad news for Harris as that likely would mean a Trump win if it holds.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 17, 2024
Obviously, it goes without saying, but I’ll say it anyway, assume nothing. Get out and vote. Get everyone you know with sense to get out and vote as well.
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