The Vancouver Canucks enter the final sprint ahead of the NHL trade deadline as one of the league’s most fascinating wild cards.
They are overwhelmingly likely to outlast the Calgary Flames and Utah Hockey Club and snag at least a wild-card berth into the Stanley Cup playoffs but lack the ceiling of a contending team, especially in the wake of the J.T. Miller trade.
They’re a team with a solid, rebuilt blue line, sturdy goaltending and a legitimate defensive identity. They’re also a team that struggles massively to score goals and has a superstar centre in Elias Pettersson who is completely misfiring at the moment, a reality that was punctuated by his underwhelming showing for Sweden at the 4 Nations Face-Off.
This is the wider context that makes our annual exercise spotlighting the arguments for keeping and trading each of the Canucks’ key pending unrestricted free agents so difficult. What factors should the Canucks consider in determining whether to trade, keep or extend Brock Boeser, Kevin Lankinen, Pius Suter, Derek Forbort and Noah Juulsen before the March 7 deadline?
Brock Boeser
The case for keeping: The Canucks’ greatest need is for a player to help them score goals and manufacture shots. Boeser does both.
He’ll turn 28 years old this month, so he’s still got plenty of good years ahead of him. He’s trusted to play at the top of the lineup and hold down a matchup role at five-on-five, he fits into multiple spots on the power play, he’s well-liked, he’s hardworking and he has evolved as a player throughout his lengthy Canucks tenure.
In a lot of ways, Boeser seems like a no-brainer for Vancouver to keep at the right price.
While Boeser isn’t a standalone five-on-five play driver, his impact has generally been solid. A cagey offensive player, Boeser is a quality screener and underrated playmaker with good finishing ability. He ranks 49th among all NHL skaters in goals scored across the last five seasons.
While Boeser might not be — on his own, anyway — the answer for what ails Vancouver offensively, and he might not be the perfect fit for how this team wants to play given his relative lack of speed, moving on from Boeser feels like galaxy braining how much additional skill the team needs. It’s not that the Canucks need a better winger than Boeser, it’s that they need more wingers of at least Boeser’s quality in general.
Whatever his limitations, Boeser is an enormously effective top-of-the-lineup winger with significant power-play value and versatility. That seems like something the Canucks should try to retain, provided the cost is reasonable. Therein lies the rub …
The case for trading: Depending on which players make it to market on July 1, Boeser is tracking to be a top-five forward in unrestricted free agency. He’s a relatively consistent 30-goal-per-82-game scorer, with the upside to hit 40 or more in any given season when healthy.
Boeser is unlikely to command the attention Nikolaj Ehlers and Mikko Rantanen will get on the open market this summer, but he’ll be a hot commodity if he makes it to unrestricted free agency. And that gives him and his agent Ben Hankinson a fair bit of leverage in contract talks.
In a perfect world, the Canucks would find a way to retain Boeser. That much is clear. But if the price tag is in the $8-9 million range over seven or eight years of term, that’s obviously a riskier proposition for management to weigh. With the cap increasing and goal-scoring ability always at a premium on the open market, that sort of valuation shouldn’t give us too much sticker shock. In fact, it seems well within reason for a player with Boeser’s track record in a rising cap environment.
Boeser is simply too valuable to retain beyond the deadline as an own rental, but if the price point and term exceed Canucks management’s risk tolerance level, the path forward becomes somewhat clear. The Canucks, after all, will need every bit of asset value they can get their hands on if they’re going to be trying to replace Boeser and add a top-six centre to their lineup this summer.
Summary: Boeser is really good and brings a lot to the table that the Canucks need more of. His contributions will not be easy or affordable to replace if the Canucks trade him.
As promising, for example, as a winger like Jonathan Lekkerimäki has been in his first professional season in North America, you can’t reasonably thrust him into a role handling the sort of minutes and defensive situations that Boeser does right out of the gate next year and expect him to succeed.
If the Canucks can find a reasonable compromise to keep Boeser in the fold, they should do so. Honestly, they should probably be willing to get a bit uncomfortable too, if that’s what it takes.
If a deal can’t be struck, however, then the way forward is clear. Boeser should be dealt in that scenario because he’s too good and too valuable for a non-contending club to risk losing without compensation in unrestricted free agency.
Kevin Lankinen would have significant trade value at the deadline, but is one of the Canucks’ most important players. (Bob Frid / Imagn Images)
Kevin Lankinen
The case for extending: Lankinen has been one of the Canucks’ most important players this season.
With Thatcher Demko sidelined by injuries and performing inconsistently and playoff breakout performer Arturs Šilovs struggling mightily, Lankinen’s rock-solid play as Vancouver’s starter has been essential. The 29-year-old Finnish netminder has posted a .905 save percentage in 34 games and saved 7.3 goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey.
The Canucks would be sitting outside a playoff spot without Lankinen: They’ve played at a 108-point pace during his games, compared to a 70-point pace when Demko or Šilovs has been in net.
Demko is one of the most talented goalies in the NHL and has a higher ceiling than Lankinen, but the former’s durability is a huge red flag at this point. Dating back to last season, Demko has only managed to finish 18 of his most recent 21 starts, including the Canucks’ final game before the 4 Nations break, and one of those starts includes the playoff game against the Nashville Predators in which Demko sustained his serious, unprecedented knee tear.
Even if you’re the biggest believer in Demko’s ability and are confident he’ll return to being Vancouver’s starter next season, the Canucks need a 1B goaltender of Lankinen’s quality. It’d be reckless to pair Demko with a classic backup who’d be ill-equipped to potentially handle a 40-game-plus workload next season.
The case for trading: Lankinen would have significant trade value at the deadline because some contenders (like Carolina and Edmonton) don’t have reliable goaltending and any buyer could fit his dirt-cheap $875,000 cap hit under the salary-cap ceiling.
It could be tempting to consider selling him rather than losing him for nothing as a free agent, but in reality, it’s highly unlikely the Canucks would trade Lankinen before the deadline, even if they aren’t able to work out an extension.
Trading Lankinen would jeopardize their playoff chances, especially with Demko’s recent injury. That could cost ownership millions in playoff revenue. You also have to consider how much of a gut punch that would be to the players. The vibes around the Canucks finally appear to be turning around after the organization’s two blockbuster trades. How would the Canucks locker room, and most importantly Quinn Hughes, feel about management trading one of their most important players away when they’re sitting in a playoff spot and entered the 4 Nations break on a roll?
The real debate is how motivated the Canucks should be to give Lankinen a lucrative contract on the back of a career year. Lankinen’s never played 40 games or more in a single season.
Goaltending is notoriously volatile and there’s a chance Lankinen could come back down to Earth next season. There are countless examples of teams that have been burned when signing a non-elite goaltender to a substantial contract on the back of a career-best or close-to-career-best season, including Jack Campbell, Cal Petersen, Ville Husso, Joonas Korpisalo and Philipp Grubauer.
Summary: Between Lankinen’s sharp play this season, the question marks around Demko’s health, the weak crop of UFA goaltenders and Vancouver’s lack of cost certainty in goal in a rapidly rising cap climate, there’s a strong case for Vancouver to explore a reasonable extension for the veteran netminder.
Pius Suter
The case for extending: Suter is the ultimate floor raiser.
The versatile Swiss-born forward is 28 years old and can play impactful, responsible hockey anywhere in the lineup — from top-line wing to fourth-line centre.
No matter where Suter takes line rushes prior to a game, he’s a high-end defensive driver; a player who improves the defensive results of just about everyone he spends time on the ice with at five-on-five. He’s a genuinely special defensive weapon, and while he’s capable of filling in as a middle-six centre, he’s arguably best used as a top-six winger.
Suter isn’t necessarily a standalone offensive driver, but he’s a solidly productive goal scorer for a middle-six player with significant defensive value. He’s outscored the likes of Mikael Backlund, Andrew Copp and Jean-Gabriel Pageau over the last five seasons, for example.
Suter is the sort of player you win with, and the case for keeping him relies on really understanding that value. He’s a very safe bet to provide surplus value if he’s compensated at the rate of an average middle-six forward, which comes in at about $3-3.5 million per season against the cap, and there’s a decent chance the Canucks could keep him for less than that.
The case for trading: The case for dealing Suter is relatively thin, in part because he has more actual hockey value than he has exchange value.
This is a player who wasn’t signed, despite being a credible middle-six centre option, until mid-August of 2023. He’s too undersized and non-physical to be valued as a plus contributor in the bottom six by most teams, especially because he can struggle in the faceoff circle and he isn’t dynamic enough offensively to be valued as a true top-six forward.
If there was a savvy contender out there willing to part with real assets to acquire Suter, that would be one thing. It’s unlikely the market will bear that type of price at the deadline, however, which makes keeping Suter a reasonable decision, even if he does end up being an own rental.
Summary: The Canucks are too likely to make the playoffs and too thin down the middle of their forward group to be likely to move Suter by March 7. Additionally, the value he provides on the ice is likely to exceed the value he’d return in a trade, making it a very difficult deal to favourably execute.
The Canucks would probably be better off extending Suter, if at all possible.
Derek Forbort may not be a fit on the Canucks next season and should be expendable at the deadline. (Steve Roberts / Imagn Images)
Derek Forbort
The case for extending: When healthy, Forbort has been a solid depth contributor for the Canucks.
Vancouver’s surrendered just four goals against during all of Forbort’s penalty-killing shifts this season. And now that Noah Juulsen, who’s essentially a PK specialist, is out of the lineup, the coaching staff must covet Forbort’s short-handed ability.
Forbort has made a strong defensive impact at five-on-five because of his IQ and long, disruptive defensive stick. Vancouver’s back end has looked far more mobile and competent moving the puck since the arrival of Marcus Pettersson, the subtraction of Vincent Desharnais and the call-up of defenceman Elias Pettersson. Forbort’s lack of foot speed and puck-moving is now less of a glaring issue.
The case for trading: Forbort is the fourth- or fifth-best left-handed defenceman on the Canucks: Hughes, Marcus Pettersson and Carson Soucy are all more established players. And if defender Elias Pettersson can sustain and build on his small sample NHL success, he may be a better player already too.
Is Forbort a candidate to come out of the lineup once Hughes is healthy? The Canucks are shopping Soucy on the trade market which could clear the current logjam, but as we outlined last week, it’s probably not worth selling low on Soucy, especially because he’s better and more versatile (he can play the right side) than Forbort.
Forbort also hasn’t played 60 games in a season since 2021-22.
Summary: The new logjam on defence plus Forbort’s injury history and age (he turns 33 in March) should make the veteran stay-at-home expendable. Vancouver could opt to keep Forbort beyond the deadline for extra defensive depth, but he’s unlikely to be a fit for the Canucks next season unless he’s OK with the idea of potentially being a No. 7 defender.
Noah Juulsen
The case for extending: Juulsen is an ace on the penalty kill, legitimately. He’s aggressively able to close and kill plays. He’s a fearless shotblocker. He’s tied with Tyler Myers for the most short-handed minutes per game among all Canucks players this season.
Juulsen’s been mistake-prone at five-on-five, but those issues were partly exacerbated by him having to hold down top-four matchups when Filip Hronek was hurt. He proved last season that he’s a reliable, low-maintenance No. 7 defenceman with his size, physicality and PK chops. Most importantly, his next deal will likely cost around the league minimum again, meaning he’s cheap organizational depth on the right side in a worst-case scenario.
The case for trading: Is Juulsen a fit given the club’s logjam of right-side defenders next season?
Hronek and Myers are locks to be ahead of him on the right-side depth chart. Tom Willander could be ready to step in as a full-time NHL contributor next season. Soucy could be a candidate to play on the right side if the Canucks keep him next season, too. And wouldn’t they want some potential room for Victor Mancini, 22, to play big-league games next season if he takes another step? He didn’t look out of place in 15 NHL games with the New York Rangers this season.
Summary: There’s nothing wrong with re-signing Juulsen as cheap organizational depth, but given the state of the blue line and some of the options Vancouver has coming this season, if the Canucks can net a late-round pick for Juulsen’s services at the deadline, it’s worth strongly considering.
(Top photo of Brock Boeser: Bob Frid / Imagn Images)
