Tottenham Hotspur beware: Why Brentford are so difficult to play against

There is a common theme that connects the majority of Tottenham Hotspur’s defeats in the Premier League this season together.

Apart from a chaotic encounter with Liverpool in December, Spurs have lost by a single goal 12 times. By contrast, all seven of their victories have been by at least a two-goal margin.

Could this be a bizarre coincidence? Or does it suggest there is a fundamental flaw in Ange Postecoglou’s approach which means Spurs thrive in open, end-to-end matches but struggle in tighter contests?

Before they were struck by an injury crisis which has taken their season wildly off track, Tottenham’s biggest problem was breaking teams down. This happened on the opening day of the season when they had 70 per cent possession against Leicester City but only registered an expected goals (xG) figure of 1.2 and drew 1-1. Spurs experienced the same issues in defeats by Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace, Ipswich Town, and Bournemouth. The data shows that Postecoglou’s side have had more possession than their opponents in 11 of their 13 losses.

Tottenham’s league form has been dismal since they beat Manchester City 4-0 at the Etihad Stadium on November 23. Since the start of December, only bottom side Southampton (28) have conceded more goals in the division than Tottenham’s 24. Postecoglou’s side also have the second-worst record for xGa (expected goals against: 23.9) and big chances faced (44) — again, only Southampton are worse. Tottenham are also on their longest winless run (seven matches) in the Premier League since 2008… and the only team they have beaten in their last 11 fixtures is Southampton.

Spurs have taken the lead in three of their last four defeats. They have dropped more points from winning positions (21) than any other team this season and have a nasty habit of conceding goals in clusters. They have conceded two goals in 10-minute spells on four occasions, including in the recent defeats by Arsenal and Leicester.

When Dejan Kulusevski spoke to the media before Tottenham’s 3-0 victory over Elfsborg in the Europa League on Thursday, which secured them a spot in the round of 16, he was asked why Postecoglou should remain in charge.

“Because we had games when we showed perfect football; football that not many teams can play in the world,” Kulusevski said. “We played beautiful games against (Manchester) United, against (Manchester) City 4-0, so I think he is the right man.

“We play for him. We want to win for him and to be honest, we have similar ideas. I am very positive as a guy and I always want to play that football he wants. I have to fight for him because I believe in that football too. Yes, I think he’s the right man.”

The problem is that all of the data above feeds into the idea that Spurs do not know how to win ugly under Postecoglou. They have not won a single game this season after playing badly.

It is a topic which Postecoglou touched upon following the defeat by Brighton in October after they threw away a 2-0 lead at half-time. Within 20 minutes of the second half, Brighton were leading 3-2 but Postecoglou did not make any substitutions until the 79th minute when he replaced Timo Werner, a forward, and Rodrigo Bentancur with two midfielders in Pape Matar Sarr and Yves Bissouma.

“Substitutions and all those kinds of things, they are totally irrelevant to me,” he said. “If you’re not competitive, it doesn’t matter what you do; you’re not going to get rewards. We didn’t deserve, on our second-half performance, irrespective of subs or anything else, to get something out of the game. If you do get something out of the game, you’re falsely rewarded and I don’t want to get falsely rewarded.”

Tottenham’s spiralling form means that Postecoglou probably would not mind being falsely rewarded right now. They are performing well in cup competitions but are 15th in the table, and Opta puts their chances of finishing in the top 10 at 11.5 per cent.

The reason why this is being brought up is because Spurs play Brentford this weekend. Postecoglou has taken seven points out of nine from his three previous encounters with Brentford, but none have been straightforward.

In August 2023, Emerson Royal’s half-volley in first-half stoppage time rescued Spurs a point in Postecoglou’s first game in charge. Six months later, Neal Maupay was the pantomime villain in a game where Spurs recovered from being 1-0 down at half-time to win 3-2. Earlier this season, Bryan Mbeumo’s volley gave Brentford the lead inside 30 seconds. Tottenham eventually beat Thomas Frank’s side 3-1 but it was not until James Maddison scored in the 85th minute that the game felt comfortable.

During Brentford’s first three years in the Premier League after they won promotion via the 2021 Championship play-off final, Frank alternated between two formations. Brentford mainly used a 4-3-3 shape but switched to 3-5-2 when they faced members of the ‘Big Six’ and it helped them to record famous victories over Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United.

The plan with the 3-5-2 formation was to soak up pressure from their opponents before creating opportunities on the counter or through set pieces. Frank rarely abandons a 4-3-3 shape now but he has made a few subtle tweaks out of possession which will cause Tottenham problems on Sunday afternoon.

A lot of that is down to the versatility and positional intelligence of midfielders Vitaly Janelt and Christian Norgaard, who have been integral in plugging gaps in Brentford’s back line when facing Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool in recent weeks.

Granted, Frank’s side only picked up a single point from those three matches but watch those games back and you will see how much they frustrated such top teams for long periods with their structured shape in their defensive third.

Using data from Footovision — an analytics company that has created new contextual metrics by combining event and tracking data from video broadcast footage — 43 per cent of Brentford’s organised defensive blocks (i.e. a low, mid, or high defensive block) is spent in a low block, which is the largest share in the Premier League. It shows that Frank’s side are comfortable in their own defensive third when they do fall back into a zonal structure.

While Brentford nominally started with a back four in each game, they would often shift to a back five when in a deep block — with either Norgaard or Janelt dropping into the half-space to monitor any deep runs from opposition midfielders or forwards.

Against Arsenal on January 1, as shown below, it was Norgaard on the right side tracking Mikel Merino…

…and Janelt on the left, monitoring Ethan Nwaneri.

The plan was clear from the very first minute against Manchester City on January 14, with Norgaard keeping a close eye on the archetypal half-space runs provided by Kevin De Bruyne.

Having such cover has two benefits.

First, it blocks the space for those dangerous runs to be made in the first place, while allowing the midfielder to track those runs if necessary — as shown against Liverpool four days after the City game.

Second, it allows Brentford’s full-backs to push out and get tight to the opposition wide forward to stop the attack at source and force them backwards.

With countless more examples against City, Norgaard and Janelt would take turns to plug the gaps on both sides — with fellow midfielder Mathias Jensen also adding extra cover to form a back six if needed to cover City’s attacking front five.

That is not to say that Brentford’s midfielders retreat in all phases of play. Frank has added a greater versatility to his side this season — one that is equally comfortable pressing high and going man-for-man when the opposition builds out.

This can be seen below with against City and Liverpool, with Norgaard and Janelt pressing up to each side’s pivot players…

…with Frank’s midfielders even showing the versatility to switch between the two defensive approaches within the same sequence.

The two frames below show Norgaard alternating between a high press and a structured deep block in a back five just one minute apart.

Ironically, the half-space gaps in Brentford’s back line were how Liverpool’s breakthrough goal came about. After a full 90 minutes of discipline and hard work, one lapse in concentration saw Harvey Elliott find Trent Alexander-Arnold’s run, who crossed for Darwin Nunez to score.

It is a feature that Postecoglou will undoubtedly be aware of when looking to break down a Brentford side that can be so formidable at the Gtech Community Stadium.

Especially considering the attacking style with which Spurs typically like to play — one based on a high volume of underlapping runs and back-post crosses — they should be prepared for periods of frustration ahead of Sunday’s clash, given the stubborn defensive structure that Brentford provide.

Postecoglou needs to end their seven-game winless run but they face a significant challenge.