Tigers roster projection 2.0: How do injuries alter the outfield puzzle?

DETROIT — On the first day of full-squad workouts, Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch showed a video featuring highlights of last season.

The reel was crafted to convey a highly intentional theme. It showed important games and moments throughout the season, from Matt Manning’s rainy start in New York to Trey Sweeney’s amazing catch in Baltimore. Player after player appeared, coming through with a big hit or generating a crucial double-play ball.

The point: A 162-game season means contributions must come from everywhere. The team that breaks camp and heads to Los Angeles later this month won’t be the same group of 26 players who finish the season in Boston.

“Right now, in this time, players don’t really want to hear that,” Hinch said. “They want to see their name at the end of spring as being on this team. I understand that and appreciate that. (But) it’s just not a deadline. It’s a moment in time.”

Already the Tigers are having their mettle tested. Matt Vierling, an important player at right field and third base, will begin the season on the injured list with a strain to his right rotator cuff. So there’s one unexpected roster spot now open.

Parker Meadows, too, remains on the mend from a nerve issue in his upper right arm. The Tigers have not ruled Meadows out for Opening Day, but nerve issues tend to be tricky, and Meadows is not currently participating in baseball activities.

For the purpose of this projection — mainly as a way of highlighting the intricacies of the roster puzzle — we will assume Meadows ends up beginning the season on the IL.

Here’s where the Tigers stand with 25 days until Opening Day:

Position players

Projected roster: 

C Jake Rogers

C Dillon Dingler

1B Colt Keith

2B Gleyber Torres

SS Javier Báez

3B Jace Jung

OF Riley Greene

OF Wenceel Pérez

OF Kerry Carpenter

UTIL Andy Ibáñez

UTIL Zach McKinstry

OF/1B Justyn-Henry Malloy

UTIL Jahmai Jones

Contenders: IF Trey Sweeney, 1B Spencer Torkelson, IF Ryan Kreidler

Injured list: OF Parker Meadows, UTIL Matt Vierling

Notable non-roster players: C Tomás Nido, C Brian Serven, 1B/OF Bligh Madris, IF Eddys Leonard, IF Andrew Navigato

Who does Matt Vierling’s injury most benefit?

The injury to Vierling likely bodes well for Jace Jung and Wenceel Pérez. Pérez, in particular, was useful for the Tigers as a rookie and was already deep in the mix for a roster spot.

The Vierling injury highlights the need for another outfielder. Although the likes of McKinstry or even Ibáñez could also fill in on the grass, Pérez more likely fits the bill. It’s worth noting the switch hitter had only a .594 OPS against left-handed pitching last season, so he doesn’t really help the Tigers’ weakness against left-handers.

How many left-handed hitters can the Tigers carry?

If Meadows begins the season on the injured list, we will learn a lot about what the Tigers actually value. There are a plethora of ways they could configure this roster. But in all situations, the team would be forced to do something it might find uncomfortable.

The Tigers, for instance, could carry Spencer Torkelson and Justyn-Henry Malloy on the same roster. But there the Tigers would be faced with either playing Kerry Carpenter against left-handed pitching or starting Malloy in right field, where he has made only one appearance at the big-league level and does not exactly profile as a plus defender. Alternatively, Riley Greene could move to right field and Malloy could play in left. None of these situations are preferable — though Carpenter against lefties is a big source of intrigue.

Likewise, the Tigers could carry Trey Sweeney and McKinstry — left-handed hitters who play shortstop — but that, too, would make them extremely left-handed and could force Carpenter into the lineup against lefties. This construction might work fine against teams that lack lefty options. But in the Opening series, the Tigers will likely face a left-handed starter in Blake Snell, plus a bullpen that features multiple formidable left-handed arms.

So what’s the solution?

Jahmai Jones: Dark-horse candidate

If Meadows starts on the IL, the need for outfield help is especially heightened. Ryan Kreidler has expanded his game into center field and could be an option. The fact he could help at shortstop, where Javier Báez remains a major question, should not be overlooked.

But perhaps the most natural fit isn’t currently on the 40-man roster. Jahmai Jones, a non-roster invitee who has played well early in camp, checks a lot of boxes for the Tigers. He’s a utility player who has spent most of his time in the outfield so far this camp. Perhaps more importantly, he’s known for his ability to handle left-handed pitching. In a sample of 25 plate appearances, Jones had a .925 OPS against lefties in the majors last season. In Triple A, Jones had an .883 OPS against left-handers. His ability to play the outfield and his strength against lefties is why he’s currently on this projection. The Tigers brought him into camp for a reason, after all.

“We’ve talked a lot about how left-handed we are and how do we balance that,” Hinch said. “He’ll be right in the mix to get some early at-bats to see if he’s factoring into these decisions.”

The Tigers could also seek to bring in a player from the outside, either via waivers, trade or free agency. A right-handed hitter who can play center field would make a lot of sense. But would they actually be able to get anyone who projects as an upgrade over Jones?

For a clearer picture, here’s a guess at what the actual batting order could look like. The ultimate roster decision could come down to one question: How do the Tigers actually feel about Carpenter getting more left-on-left at-bats?

vs. RHP

Wenceel Pérez CF (S)

Riley Greene LF (L)

Gleyber Torres 2B

Kerry Carpenter RF (L)

Colt Keith 1B (L)

Justyn-Henry Malloy DH

Jace Jung 3B (L)

Zach McKinstry SS (L)

Jake Rogers C

Bench: UTIL Andy Ibáñez, UTIL Jahmai Jones, SS Javier Báez, C Dillon Dingler

Note: Swap Jones for Torkelson here, and you’d likely have to start Malloy in the outfield in order to allow Torkelson to pinch hit for Carpenter at DH. Swap Sweeney for Jones, start Sweeney at shortstop and move McKinstry to right field, and this lineup vs. RHP looks pretty good.

vs. LHP

Justyn-Henry Malloy DH

Riley Greene LF (L)

Andy Ibáñez 3B

Gleyber Torres 2B

Colt Keith 1B (L)

Wenceel Pérez CF (S)

Jahmai Jones RF

Javier Báez SS

Jake Rogers C

Bench: OF Kerry Carpenter, UTIL Zach McKinstry, IF Jace Jung, C Dillon Dingler

Note: If Torkelson were on this roster over Jones, he could start at DH. That would mean either playing Malloy in the outfield or starting Carpenter against a lefty. Add Sweeney over Jones, and it’s a similar situation with Carpenter. 

Starting rotation

Projected roster: LHP Tarik Skubal, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Reese Olson, RHP Jackson Jobe, RHP Kenta Maeda

Contenders: RHP Casey Mize, RHP Keider Montero, LHP Brant Hurter, RHP Ty Madden, RHP Matt Manning

Injured list: RHP Alex Cobb, RHP Sawyer Gipson-Long

The fifth starter spot

Jackson Jobe is not perfect, but watching the sheer stuff he displayed Sunday against the Pirates, he continues to show precisely why he belongs on this roster. If Jobe is able to truly lock down a rotation spot, that leaves a plethora of players battling for one final spot. Maeda, Mize and Montero have all thrown well in camp so far. Maeda might not be the most inspiring of those options, but his $10 million contract status likely gives him an edge. Mize could go to Triple A or convert to relief. Montero is likely to remain a starter and could have the most to benefit from a bit more time in the minors.

Left-handed pitcher Andrew Chafin returned to the Tigers last week on a minor-league deal. (Brett Davis / USA Today)

Bullpen

Projected roster: RHP Jason Foley, RHP Will Vest, RHP Beau Brieske, LHP Tyler Holton, RHP Tommy Kahnle, RHP John Brebbia, LHP Sean Guenther, LHP Brant Hurter

Contenders: LHP Andrew Chafin, RHP Brenan Hanifee

Injured list: RHP Alex Lange

40-man depth: RHP Tyler Mattison, RHP Tyler Owens, RHP Chase Lee

Notable non-roster players: RHP Ricky Vanasco, RHP Wilmer Flores, RHP Brendan White, LHP Matt Gage, RHP Jordan Balazovic, LHP Dietrich Enns, RHP Ryan Miller, RHP Wilkel Hernandez

How will the Tigers handle the addition of Andrew Chafin?

Chafin coming to camp on a minor-league deal makes a heated bullpen competition even more fierce. Brant Hurter, who pitched well for the Tigers down the stretch last season, might be most vulnerable. Hurter’s command has been iffy in his first couple of spring outings. So if Chafin could push anyone out of this bullpen, it might be Hurter. Remember, though, that Chafin is coming to camp a bit late. Will he even be fully ramped up by Opening Day? That’s a legitimate question. Hurter, meanwhile, can profile as a multi-inning option who could also help against left-handed-heavy lineups.

Brenan Hanifee, too, could push the Tigers away from carrying three left-handers in the bullpen. The sinkerball pitcher has looked good so far in camp and had a 1.84 ERA for the Tigers in 21 appearances last season. He had close to even splits last season, making him a legitimate option over Guenther or Hurter.

(Top photo of Meadows: Junfu Han / USA Today)