Their next three league games will not define the outcome of Nottingham Forest’s season. But they could provide a useful barometer for what is to come over its remaining three months.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s third-placed side face rematches with three of the five clubs to have beaten them in the 2024-25 Premier League, all in quick succession. After Newcastle, currently seventh, away on Sunday, Forest will be visited by title hopefuls Arsenal on Wednesday (February 26); then following the home FA Cup last-16 tie against Ipswich next weekend, reigning champions Manchester City also come to the City Ground on Saturday, March 8.
On the back of Saturday’s defeat at a Fulham side who have now beaten them home and away, the importance of this short flurry of games has only risen.
It felt a bit harsh when, during the post-game press conference after that 2-1 loss at Craven Cottage, one journalist pointed out that Forest’s recent record includes only two wins in five games. Not least because they did also ultimately beat League One Exeter on penalties in the FA Cup (after being held to a 2-2 draw) — and because another of those matches was a competitive 1-1 draw with Premier League leaders and title favourites Liverpool.
But within the context of what has been a remarkable season, while that run does not qualify as anything like a crisis, a further defeat at St James’ Park might ensure Forest’s results over the previous month could reasonably be described as a blip; a bump in the road.
Head coach Nuno has some interesting decisions to make as his team look to take a firmer grip on their current position in the top four which would mean Champions League qualification for next season…
Mix up the midfield?
Getting Danilo and Ibrahim Sangare back from lengthy injury absences over the past few weeks has been viewed as a massive positive. Nuno regarded the pair as his first-choice central midfielders in pre-season, when his plans revolved around utilising their blend of attributes in front of the back four. Both were sorely missed after suffering serious ankle and hamstring damage in August.
The form of summer signing Elliot Anderson, who has surely edged himself into the England reckoning with his impressive performances, ensures he has one of the midfield positions nailed down. He is almost certain to play against his previous club on Sunday.
Danilo looked bright in the 7-0 win over Brighton at the start of the month, while Sangare was regarded as being a potentially vital cog in the machine when Forest made him their record signing on September 2023. And he still can be.
Should Danilo continue in midfield? (Photo: George Wood/Getty Images)
But while they rehabbed those injuries, Forest thrived with Ryan Yates and Nico Dominguez occupying those midfield roles. Yates, in particular, has played in some of the most notable wins Nuno’s men have secured: the successes over Liverpool, Manchester United and Aston Villa. The Forest captain, his combative nature was particularly valuable that September day at Anfield.
Yates was withdrawn at half-time of his most recent league start, the 5-0 defeat at Bournemouth, after a less than inspiring first 45 minutes all round that could have seen Forest go in at the interval more than just a goal down. But the team did not get better in his absence, conceding another four times.
Since being moved deeper from the striker position he played when he first joined the club, Joelinton has established himself as a huge physical presence in Newcastle’s midfield (though he is currently out injured). With Martin Odegaard and Declan Rice, Arsenal have two of the best midfielders in the division. Manchester City have bolstered their options in that area of the pitch, having lost 2024 Ballon d’Or winner Rodri to a season-ending knee injury in September, with the winter-window addition of his fellow Spaniard Nico Gonzalez — a player their manager Pep Guardiola has already labelled his ‘mini Rodri’.
Does Nuno give Danilo another opportunity to further build his match sharpness on Sunday by giving him a third consecutive Premier League start and fourth overall? Does he restore the previously reliable figures of Yates or Dominguez? Or does he even give the imposing figure of Sangare his first league start since returning to fitness after two top-flight substitute appearances and 72 minutes against Exeter?
Following the flat display at Fulham, Nuno has options. But getting things right in the centre of the pitch will be vital.
Flip the formation?
The 3-4-3 formation that worked to perfection at home against Brighton, was ineffective two weeks later at Fulham.
It is never wise to be too reactionary on the back of one performance but while it made sense for Nuno to keep faith with an approach that had secured a memorable 7-0 win, there is equally a significant argument for change after what we saw on Saturday in west London.
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Forest were exposed down the flanks, where wing-backs Neco Williams and Ola Aina often found themselves one-on-one with Fulham’s wide men. Anthony Elanga and Chris Wood, as a forward pairing, were too often isolated figures. Also — albeit for the first time, it must be noted — Forest did not look defensively stronger for having the imposing figure of Morato added to their well-established central defensive duo of Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic.
Murillo has been central to Forest’s defensive success (Photo: Alex Livesey/Getty Images)
Alexander Isak has 17 goals for Newcastle this season, putting him one behind Wood. Injury-hit Arsenal’s current lack of striker options is well known, but they have plenty of other attacking threats. And when Forest meet City next month they could be up against perhaps the most feared strikers in Europe in Erling Haaland (19 league goals so far this season).
Forest have kept 10 clean sheets in their 25 league matches (the most of any side in the division, along with Liverpool) and — while they’ve often reverted to a back three to see out games — the majority of those have come when they have started with a back four, based around Murillo and Milenkovic.
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Against a Newcastle side with 15 goals in their past six home matches, does Nuno revert to the 4-2-3-1 that provided the foundations for Forest’s most impressive result of the season so far — that 1-0 win at Anfield?
Wing it?
When Callum Hudson-Odoi was introduced on 68 minutes at Craven Cottage — and they reverted to their familiar 4-2-3-1 mentality — Forest looked to have more balance and threat. And a trio of Hudson-Odoi, Morgan Gibbs-White and Elanga, playing behind Wood, has been their most potent forward line this season. Elanga (eight), Gibbs-White (five) and Hudson-Odoi (two) have 15 league assists between them.
Elanga (top), Gibbs-White and Hudson-Odoi have supplied Wood (bottom) with a host of chances this season (Carl Recine/Getty Images)
It would make perfect sense for Nuno to restore Hudson-Odoi on the left away to Newcastle. But, if you cast your mind back to that win at Liverpool, there is another potential option.
Nuno fielded Dominguez and Anderson as the two wide men in the attacking three that day, and their determination and endeavour were vital, particularly when it came to making sure Mohamed Salah had a quiet game. Elanga and Hudson-Odoi still had a massive impact, combining to score the vital goal when they came off the bench in the second half.
More recently, when Villa were beaten 2-1 to the City Ground in December, Dominguez was again used on Forest’s right, frequently dropping back to support Aina against visitors with an attacking threat down their left.
Jacob Murphy (eight) and Anthony Gordon (five) have provided a stack of assists for Newcastle down either flank this season, so a more cautious approach might favour Forest in these matches against them, Arsenal and City — teams who have an abundance of threat in wide positions.
Anderson’s influence in the centre of the pitch would make shifting him to a wider role a big call, but it would be more straightforward to bring Dominguez in.
Nuno has frequently come up with the right plan against different styles of opposing teams. You’d expect his ability to continue to do so will be stoutly tested in these next three games.
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(Top photo: Hudson-Odoi celebrates; Ian Hodgson/AFP via Getty Images)
