Though it hasn’t gone for a Democrat since 2008, North Carolina is still considered one of those battleground states in presidential elections in part because of its ever-changing demographics, which makes it a challenge to predict with any significant degree of confidence how things will turn out on Election Day.
In 2016, Donald Trump won the state over Hillary Clinton, getting 49.83 percent (2,362,631 votes) to Clinton’s 46.17 percent (2,189,316 votes). In 2020, things were even closer, with Trump getting 49.93 percent (2,758,775 votes) and Joe Biden getting 48.59 percent (2,684,292 votes).
This time around, though polling is showing a close race, early voting data has given us the opportunity to look at some actual hard numbers to speculate on trends and whatnot. And so far, the GOP has outperformed their early voting numbers in comparison to previous election cycles.
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Further, there has been a black voter turnout issue, which is not good news for Democrats who were counting on Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris to be able to shore up one of their most crucial voting blocs.
And now, with just a little over two days left for in-person early voting in the Old North State, we’re learning that the EV data continues to be problematic for the Harris campaign, which Politico correctly describes as a “warning sign”:
Early vote numbers in North Carolina show the electorate skewing older and whiter, compared to the state’s voter registration, a red flag for Democrats who need Black voters to turn out in heavy numbers if Kamala Harris is going to flip this state.
[…]
And for Harris, it’s not just a turnout problem. There are also signs of erosion in her support in North Carolina among Black men, especially young Black men, according to public polling. Harris is expected to win a majority of African American voters in North Carolina, and nationally, but any slippage with this group would be a blow to the vice president.
Further, Democrats who were hoping for an Obama-era “surge” in black voting may turn out to be disappointed this year:
But Michael Bitzer, a political science professor at Catawba College in North Carolina who is closely following the early vote totals, said, “considering that they’ve made major investments here, probably the most investments we’ve seen since Barack Obama in 2008,” then the early voter turnout among Black voters “has been a yellow flashing warning sign for Democrats.”
Both Harris and GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump and their respective surrogates have spent and will continue to spend a lot of time here between now and Election Day, with Harris trying to shore up the female and black vote and Trump making his final sales pitches to all voting demographics.
But though it’s anyone’s guess what the end results will be next week, based on the available information we have so far, it looks like Republican voters are more motivated to turn out in this election cycle than they have been in previous years, while a key voting bloc that has been reliable for Democrats in the past is not at this point showing up in the numbers Harris needs to put her over the top.
It will be interesting to see if these trends hold. I’m very much looking forward to seeing how this shakes out next Tuesday. Keep it here, of course, for all the latest developments.
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