The case for Cooper Flagg as college basketball's player of the year

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — It may have taken 31 games, but we finally found something that can slow down Cooper Flagg: A healthy whistle.

And a deserved one, at that. Because for the first time this season, against rival North Carolina on Saturday, Flagg was called for three first-half personal fouls — the latter two being offensive, including a blatant charge against standstill UNC forward Jae’Lyn Withers for his third. That sent Flagg to the pine for the final 3:18 of the first half … at which point UNC promptly rattled off a 10-2 run, which dropped a double-digit margin down to one measly point at the break.

“We ran out of a little bit of gas at the end of the first half there without Cooper,” Duke coach Jon Scheyer said. “We were buying as much time as possible, and we have good confidence with the guys who were in, but … we’ve got to make sure he only has two fouls going into the half.”

Obviously. Here’s the thing, though: Those three first-half fouls only slowed Flagg down.

But as for their material impact on the game, one Duke eventually won 82-69? Nada. Zip. If anything, that foul trouble just meant that Flagg had to cram a game’s worth of production into 20 second-half minutes.

So … he did. Ho hum.

In the latest evidence of why Flagg — Duke’s freshman superstar, and the expected No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft — should win NCAA basketball’s Player of the Year award, consider the final stat line from his “down” game against the Tar Heels: 15 points, nine rebounds, six assists, four blocks and one made 3-pointer.

“When Cooper’s aggressive like that,” Duke guard Sion James said, “there’s no one in the country that can do anything with him.” Per Stathead, he’s now only the fourth Division-I player in the last 15 seasons to post a line like that in under 30 minutes. And that’s one of his “bad” games?

“For me it’s Cooper,” Scheyer said when asked postgame about Flagg’s NPOY chances. “That’s not knocking anybody — I mean, we played (Auburn big Johni) Broome, he’s a great player — but Cooper, the way he impacts every aspect of the game, I don’t think we’ve seen in college for a long time.”

Let’s build out the argument, then, shall we? Flagg entered Saturday as KenPom’s clear favorite to win the award, and leading Duke to its 19th ACC win and the outright conference title did little to shift those odds. That’s because Flagg isn’t just KenPom’s clear favorite to take home the trophy; he currently has the highest KenPom Player of the Year rating ever in the analytics site’s history, which dates back to 2011. That surpasses the likes of Russ Smith in 2013, Frank Kaminsky in 2015, and even Zach Edey last season. And as if Flagg needed further analytical support, he’s also EvanMiya’s top-ranked player this season.

Beyond that, Flagg is on pace to be the first freshman in Division-I history to lead his team in every major statistical category — points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks — and to the Big Dance. (Ben Simmons had the stats at LSU, but no postseason appearance to show for them.)

Earlier this season, Flagg became the only 17-year-old in NCAA history to have multiple 20-point double-doubles in a season, and despite turning 18 in December, he’s still regularly rewriting record books as the second-youngest player in the sport this season. His 42 points against Notre Dame in January were an ACC single-game freshman record, not to mention the 15th-most by any freshman in the last 20 seasons. (Among the other freshman greats in Flagg’s company are Simmons, Trae Young and Malik Monk.)

But winning player of the year, which only three freshmen — Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson — have ever done, is about more than just excellence at a young age. It’s about overall effectiveness. And Flagg checks that box, too, as unequivocally the best player on the best team in college basketball, one poised to ascend to No. 1 after Auburn’s two losses this week. The 6-foot-9 wing leads the nation in win shares per 40 minutes and box plus/minus, while also being second in defensive win shares and fifth in offensive win shares — all of which surpass his primary competition, Broome.

About that comparison:

Now, has Broome played in a tougher conference? Without question. The SEC is conceivably the best high-major league we’ve ever seen, on pace to break the all-time single-season bids record from one conference. The ACC, on the other hand, is … not. Instead, it’s on pace to earn its fewest NCAA Tournament invites (3) since 1999.

Have Flagg’s numbers been inflated somewhat by the ACC’s overall, uh, quality? Absolutely.

But it’s foolish to punish Flagg for beating up on the teams on Duke’s schedule or to ignore his excellence in the team’s marquee matchups. In Duke’s four top-25 matchups this season — against Kentucky, Kansas, Arizona and Auburn — Flagg averaged 21.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.8 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. If only we had some way to compare Flagg and Broome head to head, mano a mano … Oh, what’s this? Did they play in early December? Well, surely Flagg struggled against the sort of elite competition the SEC provides, right?

Or … he had one of the best games of his season: 22 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, three steals, two blocks and no turnovers.

Broome was also good — 20 points, 12 rebounds, three assists, one block and three turnovers — but he fouled out. And his team lost. Shouldn’t that also count for something in this conversation?

“There’s a good chance he’s going to be player of the year,” UNC coach Hubert Davis said. “I mean, he’s an elite player.”

Maybe the scariest thing of all about Flagg? He’s still getting better. Consider his and Broome’s numbers over their last five contests before Saturday’s rivalry games:

Flagg: 19.7 points, 7.8 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.4 steals, 1.2 blocks, 41.7 percent from 3 and 90.9 percent FT.
Broome: 17.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, .8 blocks, .6 steals, 20 percent from 3 and 66.7 percent FT.

Broome’s got the glass … and Flagg’s got everything else.

In any other season, either Flagg or Broome would be the easy, hands-down choice for player of the year. And make no mistake: both are undoubtedly deserving.

But in a direct comparison, the choice is easy. No comparison, really. It’s the younger, more productive, history-making star who the NBA sees as a borderline generational prospect — the one who regularly draws comparisons to Anthony Davis, Durant and even Victor Wembanyama. All due respect to the former three-star recruit who has more than maximized his talent, but five years into his college career, Broome should be productive.

What Flagg’s doing, though? It’s one of one.

And it deserves to be recognized accordingly.

“That’s not what Cooper plays for. That’s not what we play for,” Scheyer said. “But obviously, recognition, you always appreciate.”

(Photo of Cooper Flagg reacting after a dunk against the Tar Heels: Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)