The race for the Eastern Conference wild-card seeds is on.
The Capitals, Hurricanes and Devils look like playoff locks in the Metropolitan. After riding a four-game win streak into the break, the Lightning join the Panthers and Maple Leafs as the top teams in the Atlantic.
Those six teams all have upward of a 90 percent chance of reaching the postseason. But the field is wide open for seventh and eighth place in the East.
The Penguins, Flyers and Canadiens have slipped out of the race. But six teams are still in the thick of it: the Senators, Rangers, Islanders, Bruins, Red Wings and Blue Jackets. Every point is meaningful for this bunch, and every night of NHL action has playoff implications.
These six teams are all in the playoff mix for a reason. But there are also reasons why none of them are locks, or even safe bets, just yet.
Ottawa Senators
Record: 29-23-4, 62 points
Playoff odds: 72 percent
The case for: Defense and goaltending are key reasons behind the Senators’ current place in the first wild-card spot. There is still room for Ottawa to grow in its own zone, but it’s clear how much the team has improved under Travis Green. The Senators’ rush defense has taken strides and the team has contained its opponents’ high-danger passing. And most importantly, especially after last season, goaltending is a lot more reliable.
Linus Ullmark had a fantastic December, which really helped the Senators get back into the playoff race after an up-and-down start to the season. Ottawa’s playoff odds were down to 18.7 percent on Dec. 1 and skyrocketed to 71.1 percent just one month later. While Ullmark was sidelined for January, Leevi Merilainen and Anton Forsberg helped keep the Senators afloat.
The odds are in Ottawa’s favor. Not only are the Senators already ahead in the race with 29 wins and 62 points, but their schedule eases their path forward. Only the Avalanche have a more favorable strength of schedule ahead.
The case against: After losing back-to-back games by a score of 5-1, the Senators’ biggest weakness is glaring: The offense leaves much to be desired. As pivotal as Shane Pinto and Josh Norris are, the Senators’ scoring woes are much bigger than their injuries — especially at five-on-five.
Only two teams have scored at a lower rate than Ottawa’s 1.95 goals per 60: the Flames and Predators. A league-low shooting percentage of 6.74 has a lot to do with it — the Senators should have about 20 more goals this year based on their shot quality at five-on-five. Usually what goes down must come up, so that shooting percentage should regress closer to average over time. But the Senators can’t rely on that alone because their underwhelming expected goal generation ranks 23rd in the league.
New York Rangers
Record: 27-24-4, 58 points
Playoff odds: 33 percent
The case for: The Rangers have the elite talent to drag this group into the postseason.
The 4 Nations break couldn’t have come at a better time for the Rangers, with Igor Shesterkin sidelined for up to two weeks. While he has had some dicey stretches this year, he was also a difference-maker in October and January. Through 39 games, he sits fifth in the league with 22 goals saved above expected. And if he can follow in last year’s footsteps, the best could still be yet to come — he was an outright game-breaker from February to the postseason last season.
Shesterkin is the Rangers’ best hope of reaching the playoffs, but he isn’t completely alone in New York. Adam Fox’s poise on both ends of the ice helps drive play from the blue line. Artemi Panarin’s star power also adds some oomph in front of the blue paint. Plus, the team seemed somewhat re-energized by the J.T. Miller trade.
The case against: The Rangers have core issues.
New York went into the season as a projected playoff lock until its game completely fell off a cliff in late November and into December. That downward spiral highlighted all of the issues holding this team back.
The roster has cracks. Trading away Jacob Trouba’s contract and adding Miller did not erase that. Mika Zibanejad’s play-driving has declined and his one-timer hasn’t been effective enough to mask it. Chris Kreider isn’t operating at full capacity, while Vincent Trocheck and Alexis Lafrenière have each taken steps back. On the back end, Ryan Lindgren looks overtaxed and overworked.
The system is fundamentally flawed. The lineup hasn’t been maximized. The effort level hasn’t consistently been there, either. And it won’t get any easier for the Rangers moving forward — their schedule strength will get even more challenging when play resumes.
New York Islanders
Record: 25-23-7, 57 points
Playoff odds: 26 percent
The case for: The Islanders, despite adversity, have upped their game in 2025.
In 17 games since Jan. 1, the team has earned 22 points with an 11-6-0 record — and taken down some playoff teams (including Vegas twice, Tampa Bay, Colorado and Carolina) along the way.
Ilya Sorokin is a big reason for the Islanders’ resurgence over the last month-plus of action. He has given his team a chance to win with nine quality starts in his 13 appearances. In those 13 games, he has a 0.926 save percentage and saved 11.2 goals above expected.
Sorokin’s had goal support from the Islanders’ top forwards over this last stretch. Mathew Barzal, before he was sidelined with injury, was one of the league’s brightest stars in January. Brock Nelson, Anders Lee and Bo Horvat have also picked up the pace up front. And while there have been a lot of injuries on the back end, management has identified cost-effective options to fill out the blue line.
The case against: The Islanders are too short-handed.
Barzal, the team’s best forward, is out indefinitely. On defense, the Islanders are without Noah Dobson, Ryan Pulock and Mike Reilly — or half of their opening-night pairings. On top of that, the team is short-handed in net behind Sorokin, with Semyon Varlamov and Marcus Hogberg both sidelined.
Even at full strength, though, this team still has weaknesses. The power play is scoring at a league-low rate of 3.77 goals per 60 this year. Dobson hasn’t played up to his ceiling. And the team still struggles to defend leads; there is a reason the Islanders have the lowest point percentage of the six teams battling for a wild-card seed. So, despite their recent success, big-picture questions loom ahead of the trade deadline.
Detroit Red Wings
Record: 28-22-5, 61 points
Playoff odds: 25 percent
The case for: The Red Wings have been on a tear since the coaching change, with a 15-5-1 record and 0.738 points percentage.
The most notable improvements have come at five-on-five. The Red Wings are creating more offense, which should provide more substance to go along with their hot power play. And the team has tightened up on defense. There has been more emphasis on proactively stopping the rush and denying opponents entry so the team doesn’t get pinned back in their own zone as often. The team is allowing fewer shots and scoring chances back, and their goaltenders have benefited. A usage tweak has also contributed to that — the Red Wings’ best defenseman, Moritz Seider, isn’t getting buried in some of the toughest minutes in the league since the coaching change.
Since Todd McLellan took over, Seider isn’t the only cornerstone to trend up. Dylan Larkin has been revitalized; he has an average Game Score of 1.70 after middling at 0.77 under Derek Lalonde. Lucas Raymond has also jumped from an average of 1.00 to 1.48.
The case against: Management waited too long to make a change.
As impressive as the Red Wings’ turnaround is, why didn’t management act sooner? The signs were there — the five-on-five offense disappointed, the defense was flawed and the penalty kill was a disaster.
At the time of Lalonde and associate coach Bob Boughner’s dismissal, the Red Wings sat second to last in the Eastern Conference with a 13-17-4 record and lowly 0.441 point percentage. The roster may have flaws, but Detroit shouldn’t have fallen that far down the standings. And it could prove costly down the stretch. The Red Wings have the most challenging schedule strength ahead, so missing out on some of those ‘easier’ points from the early goings of the season may come back to bite them.
Boston Bruins
Record: 27-24-6, 60 points
Playoff odds: 24 percent
The case for: The Bruins’ elite cornerstones are getting back on track after bad starts.
That starts with the team’s biggest threat, David Pastrnak. Since Jan. 1, Pastrnak has scored 15 goals and 31 points in 18 games, which shakes out to 4.93 points per 60. That torrid pace is a major jump from his 2.91 points per 60 in his first 39 games of the season.
Jeremy Swayman’s turnaround started a little sooner than Pastrnak’s. After missing training camp, he stumbled through the start of the season. In his first 25 appearances, he only earned a 0.888 save percentage and allowed 11.4 goals above expected, the second-worst mark in the league to only Sam Ersson. Swayman has worked to neutralize his awful start, saving 11.5 goals above expectations in his 15 appearances since.
Add in a healthy Charlie McAvoy, and the Bruins have core difference-makers to lead the way in the playoff hunt.
The case against: The roster isn’t strong enough around those core players, and a coaching change isn’t enough to mask that.
The Bruins’ center depth still lacks, and offseason signing Elias Lindholm can’t single-handedly fix that. Boston needs more offensive support in the bottom six, and the blue line isn’t without its flaws. The goaltending should have been the one area of strength with Swayman as the No. 1, but management misplayed that situation, contributing to his poor start.
Goal differential isn’t everything, but the Bruins’ minus-25 is pretty indicative of what’s gone wrong on both ends of the ice — and most teams that reach the playoffs in the negatives don’t make it past Round 1.
So the question for Bruins management shouldn’t be whether or not this team can make the postseason — it’s whether they need a retool to do some damage in the near future.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Record: 26-22-8, 60 points
Playoff odds: 22 percent
The case for: The Blue Jackets’ surprising playoff push is one of the best stories of the 2024-25 season.
Under Dean Evason, Columbus’ up-and-coming core has taken leaps forward. Adam Fantilli, Kirill Marchenko, Kent Johnson and Dmitri Voronkov are becoming legitimate top-sixers. Sean Monahan’s been more than just a veteran presence in the room; he’s a difference-maker.
Zach Werenski has been the Blue Jackets’ engine on the blue line. The rover’s two-way ability has helped power this team all season and should land him in the Norris Trophy conversation. If the Blue Jackets stay in the playoff race, it could even land him some Hart Trophy votes.
Unlike some veteran teams in the playoff picture, the Blue Jackets have more leeway. Management could reward the team for its season with an aggressive approach at the deadline. The team has the assets and the cap space to make big swings.
The case against: The Blue Jackets are losing momentum, which may force management to be realistic about this team’s trajectory.
The injuries are piling up. Boone Jenner may be nearing his return, but Monahan and Marchenko, two of the team’s best offensive threats, are sidelined until mid-March. Yegor Chinakhov is sidelined, along with Dante Fabbro and Erik Gudbranson on the back end. That’s a key reason the Blue Jackets slipped to a 4-5-1 record over their last 10 games heading into the 4 Nations break.
And some issues were building in Columbus before the injuries stacked up. The team has struggled in back-to-backs throughout the season — they are 1-7-0 on the second night — and on the road. The Blue Jackets have only earned 22 points on the road, with a 9-16-4 record that adds up to a 62-point pace across an 82-game season. Compare that to their 17-6-4 home record that shakes out to a 115-point pace.
The Blue Jackets may want to take a step back unofficially and keep building for the future. No matter what, this isn’t a lost season — playing meaningful hockey this year should help in the long run.
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, Hockey Stat Cards, All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of the Ottawa Senators: Sam Navarro / Imagn Images)
