Terry Rozier's poor shooting is contributing to the Heat's flailing offense

As the Miami Heat (25-26) adjust to three new acquisitions in their rotation this week, the team is still waiting for a trade from last year to truly bear fruit.

On Jan. 23, 2024, Miami acquired guard Terry Rozier from the Charlotte Hornets in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a 2027 first-round draft pick. The Heat wanted to upgrade their guard rotation and improve their offense. Rozier averaged more than 20 points per game in his five seasons in Charlotte. The deal made sense. 

In 31 appearances with the Heat last season, Rozier proved valuable to Miami’s offense, averaging 16.4 points and shooting 37 percent on 3s. He trailed only Tyler Herro for the team lead in usage rate, but his regression this season has been one of the reasons for Miami’s  disappointing 21st-ranked offense.

The 30-year-old Rozier remains a fixture in Miami’s rotation, but the results have been inconsistent, especially when Herro in out of the lineup. His 1,340 minutes on the court this season trail only Herro (1,744) and Bam Adebayo (1,699) for the team lead. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra relies on Rozier’s ballhandling and shot creation for an offense reliant on catch-and-shoot 3s (27.2 per game, ranking 10th). 

Rozier’s shooting inefficiency has been a problem, an issue for Miami’s floor spacing and decision making, two things Spoelstra has expressed concerned about in recent weeks. Those issues don’t fall entirely on Rozier’s shoulders, but him turning around one of his most inefficient seasons in a decade could help the Heat raise their offensive floor, with or without Herro in the lineup.

Despite Rozier’s extensive playing time, Miami has been outscored by 113 points with him on the floor this season, the second-worst plus-minus among all Heat players so far (Jaime Jaquez Jr., minus-149). The combination of Rozier’s high usage and wayward jumper has hurt the Heat. This season, he’s shooting a 35.3 percent on jumpers, his lowest mark since 2018-19 with the Boston Celtics (35.2). 

Rozier finished with nine points on 12 attempts in Monday’s double-digit, Herro-less loss to the defending champion Boston Celtics. On occasions like that one, the Heat need Rozier to more resemble the player they acquired a year ago, even if he’s not carrying like he did when he was a Hornet. He’s shooting only 26.5 percent on pullup 3-point attempts after posting a mark of career-best figure 37.6 percent last season. Rozier’s poor shooting is giving opponents more opportunities to sag into the paint, further limiting drives for himself and others.

For the first time since January 2021, the Heat have scored fewer than 90 points in consecutive games, shooting 34.6 percent from the field. Even with Herro in the lineup, Miami needs someone to step up to give the All-Star more room to operate.

Spoelstra remains confident that his team has enough firepower to improve on offense, but the Heat would welcome Rozier consistently contributing efficient offense to improve their margin for error. Rozier doing so won’t suddenly turn Miami’s offense into an elite attack, but it can help ease the transitions of newcomers Andrew Wiggins, Davion Mitchell and Kyle Anderson, who could play off his ability to attack off the dribble, draw in defenders when his jumper is going and space the floor so Adebayo and rookie center Kel’el Ware have easier looks at the rim. 

Given his playing time, Rozier rediscovering his rhythm on offense could also give the Heat opportunities to consistently set up on defense, the team’s clear strength. Miami is 12-0 when allowing fewer than 100 points this season, but they need to hit the century mark themselves to make that work for them. They have failed to get there 11 times this year, pretty damning when considering the Heat average 97.4 possessions per game. Amid what has been an undoubtedly difficult season, they will need Rozier to lift his shooting numbers to have any hope of raising their floor on offense.

(Top photo: Jordan Bank / Getty Images )