NFL Week 3 was a doozy, capped by dueling Monday night performances that could be dubbed “The Josh Allen and Jayden Daniels Show.” And the Super Bowl odds are moving along with the second game’s surprising result.
In a stunning 38-33 loss to Daniels and the Washington Commanders on Monday night, the Cincinnati Bengals fell to 0-3, and their odds to win the Super Bowl ballooned from +1400 to +2500. Our projections guru, Austin Mock, actually has them modeled out far worse, projecting those odds at +6600 with a 36-percent chance of just making the playoffs.
Meanwhile, the Buffalo Bills are marching in the opposite direction after pummeling the Jacksonville Jaguars in an MVP-level performance from Allen (who is now the MVP favorite). The Bills’ odds shrank from +1100 to +800, inching up on the (imploding?) San Francisco 49ers. Mock has the Bills’ chances of making the playoffs at 89 percent.
Across the league, we’ve seen the odds and expectations of surprise teams surge while favorites have fallen precipitously. Of course, it’s only been three weeks. Some of the weirdness is just that: Weird conclusions driven by such a small sample size. Three games do not a season make, but the line movement says a lot about risers and fallers in the league right now.
Here’s how this season’s Super Bowl odds stand after the finale of a wild Week 3. Plus, at the very end, a pick by Austin Mock for his best NFL futures bet right now.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Free, daily NFL updates direct to your inbox.
Sign Up
Super Bowl LIX odds
Live odds via BetMGM update in real-time. Odds referenced below current as of 9/24.
The Kansas City Chiefs started on top and have stayed there, with their odds only shortening as each week — and KC win — goes by. They opened at +750 and are now down to +425.
But it’s the Bills who are the big story among the favorites this week, with their movement from +1200 to +800. The Bills also stand undefeated after three games and have the largest point differential in the league (plus-64).
Biggest risers after Week 3
Beyond those two at the top, here are the teams with the best upward trajectory in Super Bowl odds since the season began, in order of biggest swings to smallest.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds movement from open to current: +8000 to +3500
We see you, Pittsburgh. The Steelers started the season with little faith from oddsmakers. They had controversy at quarterback with a decision to start Russell Wilson over Justin Fields. But then Wilson was ruled out with a calf injury, and Fields took the stage under center and has led the team to a 3-0 start. The Steelers defense has allowed just 26 points so far across three games.
New Orleans Saints
Odds movement: +6600 to +3500
The Saints were not expected to be good this year in a division that also was expected to be down. And then they were the breakout team of the first two weeks. They handled the Panthers and Cowboys with a combined margin of victory of 62 points. Their Week 3 loss to the Eagles was still close (15-12).
New York Jets
Odds movement: +3000 to +1600
The Jets have gotten rolling after a Week 1 loss to the 49ers. Their competition hasn’t been too difficult in the Tennessee Titans and New England Patriots, but Aaron Rodgers has looked good, clocking his second-highest passer rating (118.9) since September of 2022, and rookie running back Braelon Allen has been a particular surprise standout (averaging 5.1 yards per carry).
Houston Texans
Odds movement: +2500 to +1200
The Texans are now tied with the same odds as the Eagles and Lions after opening well behind both. Their loss to the Vikings in Week 3 didn’t seem to hurt their Super Bowl odds much, either. C.J. Stroud had a tough game against the Vikings, throwing two interceptions for just the second time in his career. But he’s been connecting with his new target in Stefon Diggs, and running back Joe Mixon should eventually return from his ankle sprain.
Minnesota Vikings
Odds movement: +4000 to +3000
To start the season, the Vikings were +4000 (40-to-1) to win the Super Bowl. With first-round pick J.J. McCarthy on injured reserve for his rookie season and questions around starting quarterback Sam Darnold’s performance, expectations were muted for this team. Now, with three games under his belt with Minnesota, Darnold has thrown for 657 yards and eight touchdowns, leading the Vikings to a perfect start. They crushed the talented Houston Texans 34-7 in Week 3 and climbed to fourth in our power rankings.
GO DEEPER
NFL MVP odds: Josh Allen jumps Mahomes as new favorite, Aaron Rodgers rises
Biggest fallers after Week 3
It’s too early to press the panic button, but some teams may be hovering over it. Considering the small sample size of three games, we might expect a few of the teams that are dipping now to surge back as the season rolls on.
Cincinnati Bengals
Odds movement: +1400 to +2500
Oof. Not a good look. Even worse? Austin Mock’s model has them with a 2-percent chance to win the Super Bowl. The winless Bengals look worse on paper than they do in games. Joe Burrow and Co. played well in Week 2’s one-point, last-second loss to the Chiefs. Their defense fell apart in Week 3, but Burrow was stellar. To misquote Jim Carrey, we’re not telling you there’s not a chance.
Dallas Cowboys
Odds movement: +1600 to +2200
The Cowboys entered the season with some confidence after a few major contracts were finally inked. They beat the Browns handily in Week 1. Then, the slide. They lost to the upstart Saints 44-19 in Week 2 and were down 21-6 to the Baltimore Ravens at halftime in Week 3. They had a good second half and closed the gap to 28-25, but still lost and are now 1-2.
Baltimore Ravens
Odds movement: +850 to +1400
The Ravens finally righted the ship in Week 3 with a close win over the Cowboys. But things were looking particularly grim when they were winless after the first two games — including a 26-23 loss to the Raiders. The Ravens are likely the perfect example of why a small sample can be so deceiving. They’re a better team than their record indicates.
San Francisco 49ers
Odds movement: +500 to +700
The 49ers are banged up. They looked like the best team in football in Week 1 against the Jets, even without their star running back Christian McCaffrey. But more injuries came calling, and by Week 3, they were playing without McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. They’re a disappointing 1-2, though with time to heal up, they should look like themselves again.
NFL futures expert pick
Austin Mock: Seahawks to win the NFC West (+185)
The Seahawks have gotten off to a 3-0 start while the rest of the NFC West sits at 1-2. With the Rams’ injury situation being a mess, I think there is a good chance that the Seahawks are the second-best team in the division. My projections have the Seahawks as closer to a coin flip to win the division, so this is plenty of value. I think they have a chance to have one of the top defenses in the NFL, possibly even top five, and Geno Smith and their offensive weapons are more than capable of contending for the division.
(Photo of Joe Burrow: Katie Stratman / Imagn Images)
