Major League Baseball’s trade deadline is still more than six weeks away, but as the St. Louis Cardinals continue to sputter around the .500 mark, questions about the team’s trajectory and sustainability are warranted.
The trade deadline is set for July 30 this year, meaning Cardinals ownership and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak have ample time to set their sights on what they’d like to accomplish (though initial evaluations have been in the works for weeks). A mediocre National League has not made for much competitive baseball this year. This, however, has benefited the Cardinals, who have spent a whopping one game over .500 this season but have remained in play for one of the final two National League wild-card spots all year.
How will St. Louis approach the deadline this year? Let’s take a look at some (very) early storylines.
Will the Cardinals be buyers or sellers?
Despite some early speculation, there is no indication of the Cardinals selling at this year’s deadline. In fact, all signs point to St. Louis adding to its roster come the end of July, especially when factoring in the group of teams hovering above or just below .500. The Cardinals are one of several National League teams that have simultaneously spent most of their season below the even mark but are still somehow firmly in playoff contention.
This complicates matters, at least to an extent. The Cardinals should not settle for .500 ball, regardless of whether they’re coming off a 91-loss season. Seven teams entered play Tuesday afternoon separated in the NL wild-card standings by 1 1/2 games. Hoping to edge out that many teams in that tight of a race is not a viable strategy. But if that’s the path ownership elects, then Mozeliak’s job at the deadline becomes increasingly more difficult.
Obviously, much can change from now over the seven weeks until the deadline. But it would take a colossal collapse — larger than last season’s debacle even — for the Cardinals to sell for the second summer in a row. St. Louis has spent the last five seasons marketing itself as a competitive team (the second half of last year excluded) despite having won just one of its last 10 postseason games. Selling this year would remove the team even further from that narrative and continue the justified skepticism around the state of the organization.
The question that ownership and the front office are answering as they approach the deadline isn’t if they should buy or sell. It’s to which degree they buy, and how much of a legitimate push they want to make in the final two months of the season.
What will the Cardinals be shopping for?
Based on their needs, expect the Cardinals to be in the market for depth pieces. This includes in their rotation and off the bench. The lack of depth both in the 40-man roster and in Triple A has been a focal point of the season and has left the Cardinals exposed in multiple ways over the first three months.
As currently constructed, the most glaring gripes of the roster include a severe lack of starting pitching depth and no true right-handed bats off the bench. At best, the active roster is one-dimensional. At worst, it’s dysfunctional. Some of the roster woes will be addressed when key players return from injures (more on that later). But if there’s a benefit to the long-term absences of Willson Contreras, Lars Nootbaar, Steven Matz and Tommy Edman, it’s that it’s shown how sharp the farm system’s decline is in dependable replacement options.
Would St. Louis benefit from pairing another top starting pitcher with Sonny Gray? Duh. But once more, the front office finds itself in the predicament of trying to improve the club without overspending. Could ownership remove the reins? Of course, but that’s a decision that Bill DeWitt Jr. and his group have seemingly not felt the pressure to make.
For now, expect Mozeliak to continue the trend of identifying middle of the rotation type pitchers to pair with Gray and Kyle Gibson (who’s arguably been the team’s most dependable starter this year). A right-handed outfielder also remains in play with Jordan Walker retooling in Triple A. Though contending teams almost always look to bolster their bullpen, the Cardinals look set in that regard, as their unit has been one of the most effective in the National League.
How will the returns of key starters impact the Cardinals’ deadline plans?
Reinforcements are finally on the way for St. Louis. The biggest one, Contreras, resumed baseball activity Friday just one month after fracturing his forearm. The bone is completely healed, and there are at least internal beliefs that Contreras could return by the last week of June — multiple weeks ahead of his initial schedule.
That would be huge for the Cardinals, who have sorely missed Contreras on both sides of the ball. They’ve missed his arm behind the plate and his experience to pair with a veteran pitching staff. They are also unable to field a consistent right-handed power bat in the heart of the order in his absence.
Injury updates: Steven Matz, Giovanny Gallegos and Riley O’Brien will all throw for Springfield tonight in their respective rehab games.
Tommy Edman will take BP on the field today with the team for the first time.
— Katie Woo (@katiejwoo) June 11, 2024
But other impactful players are also inching closer to game action. Edman, who has missed the entirety of the season recovering from wrist surgery, took batting practice on the field at Busch Stadium for the first time. Edman’s timeline remains remarkably fluid, but a return before the All-Star break is a possibility. Nootbaar (oblique strain) is looking to be back in early July, though that’s a flexible time frame, as well.
On the pitching front, Matz notched his second rehab start Tuesday with Double-A Springfield, with right-handed relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Riley O’Brien following. Matz would need at least two more rehab starts (assuming the Cardinals want him stretched out to take a full start), but Gallegos could return as early as next week.
Some players’ returns impact potential trade deadline scenarios more than others. Bringing Matz back to the rotation would give the team a consistent fifth starter once more, but the organization would still need a substantial depth piece in case another starting pitcher goes down. Contreras gives the team a true right-handed bat, but not off the bench. Edman would likely take over the everyday center fielder role, leaving Michael Siani as a trusted defensive replacement, but the Cardinals would still lack true pinch hit options for late innings.
Trade deadline action won’t pick up until mid-July, but the industry-wide chatter has already begun. The Cardinals’ plans will undoubtedly change over the next several weeks. Some of that will be factored by how their opponents — both in the division and in the National League as a whole — compete. But don’t be fooled: The Cardinals themselves will ultimately have the final say as to how aggressive they’ll be this summer.
Seven weeks until we find out for sure.
(Photo of Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak: Mike Carlson / MLB Photos via Getty Images)
