Spurs depth chart 1.0: Analyzing fits for Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes

LAS VEGAS — The Spurs have had a low-key summer compared to the rest of the league but there’s a certain under-the-radar efficiency to their business that is historically analogous to San Antonio and the franchise.

The bulk of their offseason moves have been low-risk, potentially high-reward and most importantly, have been about the future of Victor Wembanyama — and their rebuild as a whole.

From the moment Wembanyama was drafted No. 1 in 2023, every organizational decision needed to have the French phenom in mind. The success of San Antonio’s rebuild depends on it. His historic rookie season, being named to an All-Defensive team and earning Rookie of the Year honors, only gives further credence to that mentality.

Team building is a critical part of their hopeful turnaround. One of the glaring themes from the Spurs’ dismal 22-win last season was the lack of quality playmakers and two-way role players around Wembanyama. Drafting Connecticut’s Stephon Castle with the No. 4 pick last month, signing veteran point guard Chris Paul and trading for NBA champion Harrison Barnes is a step in the right direction — more so for the addition of experience.

During their introductory news conferences, both Paul and Barnes spoke about their admiration and respect for the Spurs as a historic franchise. Both players made it clear that the reason they are in San Antonio is not only the opportunity to play for a legendary coach in Gregg Popovich, but also to help the young players around them grow.

Paul is one of the game’s most respected floor generals and brings a tremendous amount of expertise and leadership. He’s a few degrees away from the All-Star he once was, but his drive for winning will be a needed boost of professionalism in the locker room. The 39-year-old mentioned superstars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Devin Booker as examples of young players he spent time with and how that can relate to a budding star like Wembanyama. Barnes has been an integral part of an NBA Finals-winning franchise and understands what it takes to build something from the ground up.

“For me, there’s connectivity,” Paul said earlier this week. “The thing that connects us all is this game and always trying to get better.”

As far as what San Antonio’s rotation looks like — and projecting a 2024-25 season — that part is unclear. Could there be a blockbuster move on the horizon? Last week, our Tony Jones reported on the availability of talented Utah Jazz big man Lauri Markkanen and the teams that have been in contact about a potential trade, including San Antonio. While trade rumors swirl, what’s certain is the Spurs are making a notable shift in their rebuild, searching for the right mix of veterans around a core that is better than a 22-60 record.

“We start that stuff in training camp,” Paul said. “We all have to get together and make sure we understand what our goals are and what we’re going to do to help each other get there.”

For a roster and team amid a rebuild, there shouldn’t be anything set in stone at this juncture outside of Wembanyama and Castle’s development being paramount, but I still expect some fluidity with their rotations. Here is version 1.0 of our Spurs depth chart projection following their early offseason additions.

• We’ll start with Paul because this is probably the most important summer addition outside of drafting Castle. Yes, Paul is 39, his game has slowed down in recent years and he’s no longer the 20 and 10 wizard he once was. I’m not sure if any of that matters to Paul — or Popovich. If you read between the lines of Paul’s news conference, he wasn’t the happiest camper coming off the bench in Golden State (just 18 starts compared to 56 the previous season) and he still wants to compete at a high level. He’s also coming off a season where he registered the highest assist-to-usage ratio of his career (1.68, 98th percentile) and has historically taken care of the basketball (10.6 turnover ratio per Cleaning the Glass during 2023-24, equivalent to his ’17-18 season in Houston.) Paul doesn’t tend to waste possessions and with Wembanyama as the face of the franchise, the Spurs need a steady hand.

Now, I don’t think we’ll see an on/off impact like, say, what happened with the Oklahoma City Thunder in 2019-20. His splits over the last three seasons are indicative of Father Time catching up. But there’s also needed context — Paul’s teammates at his last two stops are more experienced and talented than the ones he’ll be surrounded with in San Antonio, his need wasn’t as great in Phoenix or Golden State. Still, Paul is a positive presence on the floor who will help San Antonio get organized in the half court, whether the ball is in his hands or not. 

• Castle’s first two summer league games have largely been positive — if you’re paying attention to the right aspects. I don’t love the overall shooting efficiency (12-for-33 from the field) but this is basketball in July, so it’s not going to be perfect. He defends well, leverages his athleticism and is active at both ends of the floor. It’s also quite the jump from collegiate basketball to the pros, even if this is the watered-down version of the NBA.

“Understanding the speed and physicality of the game with my decision-making,” Castle said of the adjustments he’s had to make. “With the predraft process, you don’t get to play a lot of live (game action), so knocking off a little bit of that rust.”

What the Spurs are likely looking for is Castle’s playmaking potential, both as an initiator and a secondary ballhandler. So far, Castle has dished out eight assists to just two turnovers and looks comfortable with the ball in his hands. He doesn’t have to come out of the gates expecting to be San Antonio’s primary creator on opening night, Paul’s presence takes the pressure off of him in that regard. Instead, Castle can treat this season almost like a backup quarterback would, learning from Paul and making plays when called upon. You can already tell his ability to put pressure on defenders will translate, and he’ll be able to use this gravity to open up shots for shooters like Devin Vassell, Julian Champagnie and Wembanyama.

• I don’t see Jones being moved to the second unit as a demotion. Jones filled in admirably for the Spurs last season and was by and large their best creator (1.62 assist-to-usage ratio, per Cleaning the Glass) but he also isn’t as secure with the ball as Paul is (12.3 percent turnover ratio) and should bring control and facilitation to the bench lineups. Per Second Spectrum, San Antonio’s best-performing lineup last season had Jones running the show (along with Keldon Johnson on the wing), but with the roster looking differently, it’s best utilized as an in-game lineup. The Spurs were a whopping plus-25.6 in net rating but the sample size wasn’t as robust, nearly 600 possessions less than their most-common five-man group (Wembanyama, Jeremy Sochan, Champagnie, Vassell, Tre Jones).

• The biggest debate might come at power forward. I’m penciling in Barnes right now for most of the same reasons Paul should start, but behind him, there are real questions. Where does Jeremy Sochan fit? Last season, Sochan logged the majority of his minutes at shooting guard, but I think he’s better served at backup forward, with his size, physicality and defensive versatility. At either of the forward positions with the personnel San Antonio now has, he wouldn’t be tasked with playmaking duties as much as he was last season, where he struggled. Sochan registered a 0.84 assist-to-usage ratio, coupled with a turnover percentage of 14.2. That places him in the bottom quartile of playmakers/creators. That experiment hasn’t worked out, which is a detriment to Wembanyama’s development. Barnes appears to be a cleaner offensive fit around Wembanyama similar to Paul. 

• Champagnie also played power forward last season, but I think that was more out of necessity and I’d like to get a look at him in a diluted Vassell role, able to play off playmakers like Paul, Castle and Jones while still providing quality floor spacing. On paper, San Antonio has a very decent 10-man rotation and it’s not inconceivable to think they could win 35 games this season — or even slightly more.

• It’s safe to assume an uptick in San Antonio’s half-court efficiency (26th, per Cleaning the Glass) by the additions of two plus 3-point shooters in Paul (37.1 percent last season on 3.6 attempts) and Barnes (38.7 percent, 4.7 attempts). Factor in Paul’s potential impact on Vassell and Wembanyama’s shot quality/selection and there should be a healthy amount of optimism about the Spurs, who ranked 28th in 3-point shooting, improving quickly.