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Shohei Ohtani is back on a mound, we look a little closer at why everyone’s asking about where Alex Bregman will play, the Angels signed a future Hall of Famer (and a past future face of a franchise) and Ken has notes on the Cubs missing an opportunity. I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
Balancing Act: An Ohtani pitching rehab update
Last year, as Shohei Ohtani was becoming MLB’s first 50/50 hitter, you may have had a moment when you remembered: Oh right, this guy has also been a heck of a pitcher (15.1 bWAR, 3.01 ERA)!
Ohtani, 30, spent 2024 recovering from UCL surgery that prevented him from pitching during his first season with the Dodgers, but if everything holds up, he’ll be a very important cog in L.A.’s rotation this year. He took a big step forward on his journey back to the mound over the weekend as he threw 14 pitches in a bullpen session, with his fastball sitting 92-94 mph.
He’s expected to return to a big-league mound sometime in May, but the team is going to have to get a little bit creative with how it handles his ramp-up. Any other pitcher could just be sent on a minor-league rehab assignment. But “any other pitcher” wouldn’t be hitting leadoff and coming off a 50-homer season.
There is also the matter of Ohtani’s left labrum, which he injured last fall, requiring surgery. But so far, it doesn’t seem like that will prevent him from being ready for Opening Day. So the Dodgers will have to figure out how to build up Ohtani’s workload on the mound while keeping him in the lineup as much as possible.
Seems tricky, but so does having a two-way player in the first place, and Ohtani has balanced that just fine.
Ken’s Notebook: Cubs flailing and failing
From my latest notes column:
Theo Epstein famously used the phrase, “If not now, when?” to justify the Chicago Cubs’ trade for Aroldis Chapman during the 2016 season. Epstein, then the Cubs’ president of baseball operations, was trying to end a 108-year title drought.
Nine years later, the Cubs’ position is not as urgent, but the availability of Alex Bregman amounted to a new opportunity. The team, after years of exerting financial discipline and making a win-now trade for Kyle Tucker, had every reason to revive Epstein’s mantra from 2016 in its pursuit of Bregman. Instead, owner Tom Ricketts authorized an offer that was only Bregman’s fourth highest in total guaranteed money — four years, $115 million, with opt-outs after the second and third years, according to The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney.
The Boston Red Sox made the big-market push the Cubs backed away from, signing Bregman to a three-year, $120 million contract with opt-outs after the first and second years. The deferrals in the deal lowered its present-day value to $95.1 million, or slightly more than half of the $182 million the San Francisco Giants committed to shortstop Willy Adames.
At the start of the offseason, few would have predicted such an outcome between Adames and Bregman. In a relative sense, Bregman turned out to be something of a bargain. Yet the Cubs, who would have deferred only a portion of Bregman’s signing bonus, according to a source who briefed Mooney on the negotiations, still fell short.
The Cubs in 2023 were top-five in both revenue and franchise value, according to Forbes. But their current estimated luxury-tax payroll ranks 14th, according to Baseball Prospectus.
They potentially are wasting what likely will be their only season with Tucker, who would have benefited from the addition of Bregman to the lineup. If Ricketts couldn’t land Bregman on a short deal, why should anyone expect him to keep Tucker long-term?
It’s not as if Ricketts’ payroll commitments are suffocating. Only two Cubs are under contract past 2026 — left-hander Shota Imanaga (through 2027 if he exercises player options) and shortstop Dansby Swanson (signed through 2029). The team is more than $31 million under the luxury-tax threshold, and possibly could have remained under even if it had signed Bregman, through deferrals or other moves. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, however, told reporters the organization “philosophically” has avoided the kinds of large-scale deferrals other teams employ.
These words from Hoyer, regarding his case to ownership for Bregman, were telling: “I realize this is a financial stretch above our budget, but I realize this is the moment to do it.” The Cubs are projected to win a weakened NL Central even without Bregman, but his addition might have sealed the deal. He was a better fit for their roster than he is for Boston’s. And by getting him on a short deal, the Cubs could have given additional development time to third-base prospect Matt Shaw.
If not now, when? Lately with Ricketts, the answer seems to be “never.”
More here.
Explainers: More Bregman fallout?
With all the questions about whether Alex Bregman will actually play second base in Boston, I thought it might be worth a short explainer on why it’s such a topic of conversation.
Bregman won a Gold Glove at third base last year, and here are a few defensive metrics. The first number is his 2024 season, and the second is his career total:
Defensive Runs Saved: (6/27)
Fielding Run Value: (5/17)
Outs Above Average: (6/22)
Meanwhile, Rafael Devers has been Boston’s second most valuable player by fWAR since his debut in 2017. (No. 1 is Xander Bogaerts, who is now with the Padres). The Red Sox are kinda his team. But most of his value comes from his bat. Compare these numbers to Bregman’s:
Defensive Runs Saved: (-9/-62)
Fielding Runs Value: (-5/-21)
Outs Above Average: (-6/-29)
It’s an easy decision, on paper. But these things don’t happen on paper. They happen in an office with a GM and manager.
As Steve Buckley points out here, the Red Sox haven’t made a definitive statement yet as to where Bregman will play. Bregman makes the Red Sox a better team, wherever he plays. But if they play him at third base, bumping Devers (ostensibly) to designated hitter, they’ll be even better.
That is, if Devers isn’t disgruntled about it.
More Bregman: Chandler Rome brings us into Astros camp, with Bregman’s departure looming large.
Making Sense: Angels remain active
It has been an active offseason for the Angels, who have made two more moves, signing former Dodgers, Braves and Red Sox closer Kenley Jansen (one year, $10 million), and former White Sox infielder Yoán Moncada (one year, $5 million).
First, the closer. Jansen’s 447 career saves are the fourth-most all time (and if he manages to get 31 more this season, he’ll be in a tie for third). But at 37 years old, isn’t he an odd fit for the Angels? After all, they already had Ben Joyce in the bullpen, seemingly primed to be the heir to former closer Carlos Estévez (now with the Royals).
Well, maybe not.
Joyce is still just 24, and says he’s excited to learn from the future Hall of Famer. And — as you might expect from someone with a 105 mph fastball — he has dealt with injuries. Between a potentially volatile arm and an aging closer, maybe it’s a perfect tandem for the back end of the bullpen.
Meanwhile, there was a time when Moncada was the future face of the franchise on Chicago’s south side. That hope was long gone by the time he rode the pine for the end of last year’s historically bad White Sox season.
Sam Blum spoke to Moncada as he prepares to be the team’s starting third baseman on a “prove-it” contract.
Handshakes and High Fives
MLB insiders predicted the players most likely to be traded in 2025.
Jim Bowden has our first Power Rankings of the 2025 season, and you’ll never guess who is at No. 1. (Just kidding; yes, it’s the Dodgers.)
Tim Britton was present for Juan Soto’s first day in camp as a member of the Mets, and says Soto “checks every box.”
Yankees DH Giancarlo Stanton is behind schedule, rehabbing from “something like tennis elbow” in both elbows that has bothered him since last season. Meanwhile, Marcus Stroman has made it clear that he has no interest in being a reliever.
In Philadelphia, Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are “embracing the sting” of playoff disappointment.
It appears Nolan Arenado won’t be traded before Opening Day. Katie Woo spoke to the 10-time Gold Glove winner about how he plans to approach the season.
The 2025 Topps baseball cards are here; our collectibles team walks us through the new designs and inserts.
When Jhoan Duran is healthy, he’s one of the most electric relievers in the game. It seems like he’s healthy.
We have stories on three players who missed a lot of time last year but could be major contributors in 2025: Jung Hoo Lee of the Giants, and teammates Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. of the Braves.
The Rays’ temporary home (Steinbrenner Field) is ready to show off.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Jayson Stark’s 2025 MLB spring training survey, where a panel of execs, coaches and scouts gave their thoughts on the players, teams and storylines to watch.
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(Top photo: Joe Camporeale / Imagn Images)
