As RedState has reported, the Pennsylvania Senate race has gotten really interesting in recent weeks, with the first debate taking place and GOP nominee Dave McCormick putting in a strong showing in it against Democrat Sen. Bob Casey, who he portrayed as a rubber stamp for Biden-Harris and a potential Kamala Harris-Tim Walz administration.
There was also Casey himself even bizarrely running an ad featuring his support for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on the issues of China tariffs and ending NAFTA. This was a strong signal, as my colleague Bonchie noted, that “Casey believes Trump is going to win the state.”
READ MORE: Casey Cosplays As a Trump Supporter, and It Tells Us Everything About Pennsylvania
And with two weeks left to go before Election Day, we’re learning that McCormick keeping the pedal to the metal has been paying off, with Cook Political now moving the race to a “toss-up,” and citing McCormick closing the polling gap as the primary reason:
According to Cook, McCormick’s closing of the gap and Casey’s latest ad showing that he sides with former President Trump on trade and tariffs are two of the main reasons behind the shift.
“While public polling in the Keystone State still shows Democratic Sen. Bob Casey with a slight lead, both Republican and Democratic internal polls show this is now a margin-of-error race, with Casey holding a slim, statistically insignificant lead of between one and two points,” the Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor wrote.
“Though many of the fundamentals may still very slightly favor Casey, this race is now close enough that it belongs more in the Toss Up column than in Lean Democrat alongside Arizona and Nevada, which have clearly become tougher lifts for the GOP,” she said.
Bloomberg Radio called the news a “big deal” and “remarkable”:
“BIG DEAL!”: Bloomberg reports on Cook Political Report changing the Pennsylvania Senate race to a TOSS-UP.
“This runs against a narrative we’ve been hearing about throughout this cycle.” pic.twitter.com/3r2HAbqMFe
— McCormick War Room (@TeamMcCormickPA) October 21, 2024
The change certainly fired up the McCormick campaign, which tweeted this earlier Monday:
Pennsylvanians want CHANGE. And we’re going to deliver it.
Help us beat Bob Casey ⬇️https://t.co/BuQfmaHWHS https://t.co/g528eiOUMt
— Dave McCormick (@DaveMcCormickPA) October 21, 2024
We noticed the narrowing polling gap earlier this month and wrote about it. Indeed, McCormick had hovered close enough to Casey in polling to give the incumbent nightmares, but most of the polls still had McCormick behind him outside the margin of error.
But that changed in mid-September to the point we now have a possible Senate race nailbiter on our hands come Election Day in the Keystone State. In fact, McCormick had a one-point lead in the most recent AtlasIntel poll, the first lead he has had against Casey in polling to date. In their previous poll, taken a month ago, Casey had been up by two points.
There has definitely been a big shift in this race, but whether that trend holds as we get closer to the big day remains to be seen. Whatever the case may be, let it be known that McCormick has fought tooth and nail to defy the odds against the entrenched three-term Senator, a former state treasurer and auditor general whose father, Bob Sr., is a former governor of the state.
As always, stay tuned.
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