During this season’s Champions League campaign, The Athletic has published projections — powered by Opta data — to show how teams are expected to perform in Europe’s top competition.
After the latest round, the knockout play-offs, we crunched the numbers again and came up with the following.
Real Madrid are only fifth favourites to retain their title, given an 11 per cent chance of doing so, rated less likely than Liverpool (17 per cent), Barcelona (16 per cent) and Arsenal (14 per cent). Atletico, meanwhile, are ninth-most likely to lift the famous trophy, with a remote three per cent chance.
As for this tie in isolation, Real Madrid have a 64 per cent chance of making the quarter-final according to the same technology.
GO FURTHER
Champions League projections 2024-25: Who will lift the trophy in Munich on May 31?
