Pollster Scott Rasmussen, on Friday, released a poll claiming that former President Donald Trump appears to have turned the tide, at least in the polling. Rasmussen’s latest survey has Trump leading 46 to 45.
Support in the presidential race has swung six points since the beginning of the month, catapulting former President Donald Trump back into a narrow lead after Vice President Kamala Harris had surged with her surprise entrance atop the Democrat ticket, according to a new poll released Friday.
The survey of 3,000 likely voters by Napolitan News and veteran pollster Scott Rasmussen showed Trump leading Harris 46% to 45%.
When voters who said they were leaning toward a candidate were included, the survey found Trump ahead 49% to 47%.
Harris was leading Trump 44% to 43% in the same survey a week ago, and enjoyed a five-point lead in the same poll on Aug. 2 shortly after taking over the top of the Democrat ticket. In that poll, Harris was up 47% to 42%, Rasmussen reported.
Some cautionary notes are in order here.
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Taking a look at the actual Rasmussen release reveals a few things. First, the results:
In the race for the White House, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris 46% to 45%. When leaners are included, the Napolitan News survey of 3000 Likely Voters shows Trump ahead 49% to 47%. A week ago, the candidates were tied at 49% among Likely Voters.
These numbers suggest that the initial Harris bounce is over. However, the core dynamics of the race remain unchanged. Love him or hate him, voters know what they think of Donald Trump. At this point in time, Kamala Harris remains largely unknown. That means events like the upcoming Democratic convention and presidential debates could have a bigger impact than usual.
Rasmussen makes one great point here: Kamala Harris is, to a lot of voters, an unknown quantity. Bear in mind that you, dear reader, are probably better informed and have a much greater knowledge of the candidates and the state of the race than most voters because you are interested enough in these things to read the political commentary. But an awful lot of people aren’t policy wonks or political junkies; a lot of these people will make their voting decisions at the last moment, and a lot of them will make that decision based on minimal information.
We used to call these low-information voters.
Also bear in mind that this poll isn’t a survey of the battlegrounds, which is where close elections are decided, and in those, Trump’s numbers have been slipping. A general survey like this is interesting but doesn’t take the Electoral College into account. No matter who wins in the end, this election is bound to be a nail-biter, and it will be decided by a few thousand ballots in a few states — very likely in a few cities.
Rasmussen continues:
As a result, the race for the White House remains too close to call. Anybody who says they know who will win is either lying to you or to themselves.
Trump voters are slightly more likely to vote than Harris supporters. So, the former president does a bit better with a lower turnout.
Yeah, let’s not hope for a lower turnout. Well, lower turnout of Democrats, sure.
It bears repeating: This race changed dramatically with Joe Biden’s withdrawal. Kamala Harris will be hidden from any direct media contact as long as possible. She will remain an unknown quantity to much of the voting public as long as her campaign can keep it so. Any exposure hurts her; any unscripted appearance hurts her because she just isn’t any good at it.
The Democratic National Convention is next week. The debates are coming up. This is where the Trump team can really turn things around. This is the point where Kamala Harris can’t avoid unscripted events any longer.
