As we close in on Day 1,000 of Putin’s 72-hour flounce on Kiev, it’s time to take another look at the state of play.
Ukraine’s President Zelensky is in the US today for the UN General Assembly. He will meet with Joe Biden and former President Trump and visit an ammunition factory in Pennsylvania.
We must all do our part in the fight for freedom — from the workers in Scranton who make Pennsylvania the arsenal of democracy to the brave Ukrainian soldiers protecting their country.
We stand with Ukraine in their just defense of their homeland in the face of Russian… pic.twitter.com/5VnYRfQOm5
— Governor Josh Shapiro (@GovernorShapiro) September 23, 2024
The major issue hanging fire is the US permitting Ukraine to use weapons made in the US or with key US-made components in deep attacks on Russia. Somehow, Jake Sullivan’s brain trust has concluded that an aggressor state has immunity from attacks on its territory and that attacks at C4I and logistics nodes have no effect on the battlefield. That dam of stupidity is crumbling as Jill Biden, or whoever is running the White House this week, is reportedly on the cusp of removing those restrictions.
🤔https://t.co/MAhA2B85WP pic.twitter.com/DWPsY6urUl
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) September 20, 2024
This has given rise to a fairly credible rumor that Russia may enter into real negotiations to prevent those deep strikes.
🚨 We must not fall for this: Russia reportedly trying to convince the West to reverse its decision on long-range counter strikes by offering to withdraw from occupied Kherson & Zaporizhia regions.
If true, they will be withdrawing anyway because occupation is no longer tenable. pic.twitter.com/ZPjRlS6NYN— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) September 15, 2024
This plan would essentially return to status quo ante on February 24, 2022. This deal looks okay on paper, but it misses a critical point. The territory that Russia would evacuate under this deal has been annexed and is now part of Russia. Unless Russia officially rescinds the annexation, all we have is a breather before another round of fighting.
Supposedly, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov will meet in October to plot Russian strategy for next year.
Russian military circles say that “Gerasimov is preparing for a tough conversation with Putin.”
Sources say that the president of Russia is scheduled to meet with the chief of the General Staff in mid-October, during which Gerasimov will have to present his plan for conducting a… pic.twitter.com/Squ9B5CUMc
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 21, 2024
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 133. Turmoil in Kursk and Long-Range Strikes Into Russia Possible
Putin’s War, Week 132. Russia’s Missile Blitz Meets Ukraine’s Drone Blitz – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 130. White House Says the Quiet Part Out Loud and a Storm Gathers in Southern Ukraine – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 129. The Invasion of Kursk Continues, Putin Unhappy, and the White House Befuddled – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 128. Russia Invaded – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive
Putin’s War, Week 126. Ukraine and Hungary Square Off, More Peace Talk by Putin, and the Escalation Flop – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card
Putin’s War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital
Putin’s War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
NATO Edges Closer to Unified Response to Russian Missile Attacks
Two months ago, Poland proposed that NATO allow member state fighter aircraft to engage Russian drones and missiles heading for targets in Ukraine; see Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card. That proposal didn’t go far in Washington or Berlin. Now, another country is raising the issue of Russian drones overflying NATO airspace to hit Ukraine.
Romania made this statement at the Bucharest-9 meeting
Romania has experienced debris spillovers from Russian attacks on Ukraine but it is not alone: Moldova, Latvia and Poland have also been struck https://t.co/idkqQVNfBz
— Samuel Ramani (@SamRamani2) September 18, 2024
Poland and Romania using their air defense systems to engage Russian missiles and drones over their territory, and, inevitably, those missiles and drones that have a track that would result in them hitting their territory if they missed a target in Ukraine is now just a matter of time.
Russia Accuses Ukraine of “Provocative Action”
Russia has accused Ukraine of herding the residents of Kursk into concentration camps. Ukraine has invited the International Committee of the Red Cross into Liberated Kursk to verify the situation and provide assistance as appropriate. Russia says this would be a “provocative action.” Go figure.
Meanwhile Ukraine ask’s for the UN & the Red Cross to enter parts of Kursk under Ukrainian control in a humanitarian mission for the Est 10k of Russian civilians still there.
Russian called that if such a humanitarian mission happens that would be “provocative” pic.twitter.com/uu72XPTZxU— Postman-news8726 (@Postmannews8726) September 20, 2024
Related:
A second time in a week that the Russians have blown up Red Cross vehicles and the Red Cross can’t even come out and denounce the Russians for blowing up their own stuff https://t.co/FonL4kTBtl
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) September 16, 2024
Ukraine Attacks Russian Drone Operation in Syria
Put this in the “say what?” file.
Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) special forces conducted an operation against a Russian military base in Syria on Sunday according to a source in Ukrainian military intelligence who spoke to the Kyiv Post. The attack targeted a facility on the southeastern outskirts of Aleppo, where Russian forces were reportedly manufacturing and testing strike UAVs.
The Kyiv Post obtained exclusive footage of the operation, which shows a HUR flag visible behind a berm near a garage used as a Russian base. The video, filmed by an intelligence officer, captures an explosion at the Russian facility followed by the detonation of ammunition.
On the one hand, we know Ukraine is active in attacking Russian targets in Africa; see Russia’s Wagner Group Suffers Major Defeat at the Hands of Tuareg Rebels in Mali and the follow-up story in Putin’s War, Week 127. F-16s Arrive. On the other, shooting explosives with a bullet is something done in movies, not in real life. But a story by a reporter with an overactive imagination doesn’t mean the event didn’t happen. Color me agnostic on this for the time being.
Russia Makes Territorial Claim on Finland
The vatniks out there are going to look at this newest bit of saber-rattling by Moscow as hyperbole. The pattern is that when Moscow tells us what it is going to do, like invade Ukraine, their trained poodles that come increasingly from the American Right immediately claim that we are mistaken. And when these things come to pass, they pull the “she wore her dress too damned short, she knew this was going to happen, and she had it coming” defense. The prime example of this is “NATO expansion.” However, every time one of Putin’s vodka-besotted cronies wheezes about nuclear weapons, we’re supposed to jump and pull on our brown trousers.
Official Kremlin media have been making a lot of noise about a large section of Finland being part of “historic Russia.”
Russians “argue” that these areas were annexed to the Russian Empire several decades before Sweden lost all of Finland to Russia and the Grand Duchy of Finland was established at the end of the Finnish War (1808–1809).
— Tomi 🇺🇦🇫🇮 (@TallbarFIN) September 15, 2024
As I’ve posted on several occasions, whenever Putin’s regime starts talking about “historic Russia” and “tsarist territories,” we need to pay attention. I don’t think Putin has any interest in recreating the USSR; his vision is the Imperial Russia of Nicholas II and his predecessors. I think Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltic states, most of Poland, and Finland are on the menu.
For more on this, here is Professor Stephen Kotkin, one of the more distinguished Russia scholars we’ve produced speaking on the subject of Putin’s goals. I have his books on Stalin, though I think he has a bit too much of a love affair with Russia for my taste.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=live
Molon Labe
Meanwhile in Russia: state media is now arguing that the United States no longer deserves to have nuclear weapons, and they should be confiscated by Russia and China. pic.twitter.com/fGMFbF15Cf
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) September 17, 2024
About That Nuclear Threat
A year ago, the Russians rolled out a new nuclear missile named after their national mascot. The RS-28 Sarmat (or Satan) was supposed to be the final word in Russia’s deterrence of a NATO alliance that seemed hellbent on letting free nations join no matter what the psychopaths in the Kremlin wanted.
Things don’t always go as one might like.
Yesterday Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had an interview and issued another nuclear warning
“No one wants a nuclear war, but I can assure you we have weapons that will have very serious consequences for the masters of the Ukrainian regime.“
So it was supposed to… pic.twitter.com/2F4ANcS9Uw
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) September 22, 2024
After my first trip down the Berlin-Helmstedt Autobahn, I came away convinced that the reason the Russians hadn’t invaded Western Europe had less to do with their fear of NATO than it did with their knowledge about how f***ed up the Red Army was. If Russia were going to pop a nuke to make a point, it would have done so by now. Watching the events unfold, one can’t help but wonder if they are more constrained about the high probability that such a demonstration would end up as a national humiliation than they are about the political and economic consequences.
Corporate Takeover, Russian Style
Armed gangs of opposing factions battled for control of the headquarters of Wildberries, the cheap Russian knockoff of Amazon/Facebook Marketplace. This is how a normal country that is defending Western civilization against the globalists behaves.
seven were injured during an attempt by Wildberries co-founder Vladislav Bakalchuk, with the forceful support of MMA fighters close to the head of Chechnya, to enter the main office of the marketplace. The conflict in Moscow was caused by a clash of interests between Ramzan
2/12 pic.twitter.com/gwRbni8xLr— Artur Rehi (@ArturRehi) September 19, 2024
Peak Russia
Majestic creatures these russians🙄 pic.twitter.com/gNlUlDbMiD
— BroSINT 69™ (@osint_69) September 18, 2024
It’s Game Over
A drug-addled octogenarian musician says Ukraine is losing. Who are we to second guess his wisdom?
After a rough night with his Russian handlers, Roger Waters gets trotted out like a drugged poodle for yet another Kremlin propaganda statement.
We haven’t seen this level of panic from Putin’s propaganda machine since “giving Ukraine Javelins will cause WW3”. pic.twitter.com/8fbR8UgdxS
— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 14, 2024
Operational Level
Overall, the front lines remained fairly stable, but there were signs of underlying instability. The Russian counteroffensive in Kursk seems to have come to a standstill while the Ukrainian Army is still making progress in the second penetration they launched. The Russian offensive in central Donetsk has slowed down, and the Ukrainian forces have regained some lost territory. This is due to Russian troops being pulled from the line and transferred to Kursk. Ukrainian attacks are also reducing the Russian lodgement in Kharkiv.
The main operational story has been the Ukrainian strikes on three major ammunition dumps.
- Tikhoretsk, Krasnodar Krai Region
/2. 🇰🇵💥 Another epic video of North Korean munitions being demilitarized by Ukrainian drones at the Tikhoretsk ammunition depot. pic.twitter.com/iWluqGiTUZ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 21, 2024
- Toropets and Oktyabrsky, Tver Oblast
Without watermark.
notice the blast wave. https://t.co/cuAM3pN6si pic.twitter.com/c04JeYHyTf— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝕯𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝕯𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱△ 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇺🇲🇬🇷 (@TheDeadDistrict) September 18, 2024
“It’s totally fine,” says the driver evacuating burning ammo from Toropets, russia. pic.twitter.com/ofWzHlwFfB
— Saint Javelin (@saintjavelin) September 18, 2024
The second Russian arsenal in the Tver region caught fire, the village of Oktyabrsky, 16 km south of Toropets burns on NASA maps,
the dry summer of 2024 and neglect of fire safety techniques played badly with the Russians#RussianFuhrerAnotherVictoryhttps://t.co/MxQgCCQ5DR https://t.co/pqyd9fdrhW pic.twitter.com/QICY6zOOEo— Pound (@pound_sterling) September 21, 2024
Near the village of Oktyabrsky in the Tver region of the Russian Federation, drones attacked the 23rd arsenal of the GRAU. Local residents report powerful explosions and repeated detonations. pic.twitter.com/tL7OzGho4z
— Sander (@SanderRegter) September 21, 2024
The attacks resulted in the loss of about 40,000 tons of munitions—40 kilotons, the size of a small TNT or the combined yield of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki blasts. The Tver explosion registered about 2.8 on the Richter Scale. The stockpiles of North Korean ballistic missiles were specifically targeted.
Russian officials claimed that all the Ukrainian drones were shot down and the damage was caused by falling debris (as if that made a difference).
“Everything was shot down, it’s just the debris that caused the fire,” authorities say in so-called russia.
Meanwhile, in the background, ammunition continues to detonate.🎇 pic.twitter.com/ROVJSCaXWQ
— Maria Drutska 🇺🇦 (@maria_drutska) September 18, 2024
This led to some humorous social media items.
😂 The West began secretly supplying Ukraine with a new generation of lethal weapons prohibited by the Geneva Convention….
What are these new weapons? Watch the video to find out. 😉
Kudos to whoever put this together! #Russia pic.twitter.com/KKe95ycKhw
— Natalka (@NatalkaKyiv) September 19, 2024
This has opened the door to another procurement scandal. The Toropets depot was built to withstand air attack. Ironically, Dmitry Bulgakov was arrested on corruption charges in July 2024; see Russia’s former deputy defense minister detained on corruption charges loses an appeal | AP News.
Bulgakov noted that the full load of each storage facility is up to 240 tons, and met “the highest world standards”.
He was fired in 2022. pic.twitter.com/rcPn9TLWdB
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) September 18, 2024
While part of the problem was caused by ammunition stacked on the ground at the railhead, there were also obvious construction problems. Corners were cut, resulting in the storage bunkers not being protected.
There were also OPSEC issues. Yandex is the Russian equivalent of the Google search engine.
😂😂😂 on behalf of all Ukrainians: Thank you Yandex!
“A friend sent me satellite photos of warehouses in Toropets in a personal message. With high detail. Many were lying in the open and easily distinguishable. Missiles in one place. Shells in another, etc. I ask him: “Where do… pic.twitter.com/Kh9evEijNj
— Natalka (@NatalkaKyiv) September 18, 2024
Adding insult to injury, Toropets’ website was hacked.
Holy shit..
The Russian town that is now the scene of an munitions depot explosion that could be seen from space this morning just had it’s Municipal District’s website changed to feature a photo of Ukraine’s Intel Chief, Sir Budanov. pic.twitter.com/KOWZSAEqSe
— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) September 18, 2024
The impact will be felt in the next few weeks as the ammunition currently in the pipeline to the front is used up.
According to the head of the Estonian Defence Forces intelligence centre, Colonel Ants Kiviselg, the ammunition, which had not yet been stored indoors, was delivered to the depot by train just before the attack was launched. After it, the ammunition in the yard detonated along… https://t.co/VrrCSOhjng pic.twitter.com/PNwPxaMSKw
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 22, 2024
Russian missile attacks are back in a lull after the surge we saw earlier in September. Most of the attacks are by Shahed drones, and nearly all of those are successfully engaged.
Russian War Correspondent Captured
When we last encountered the correspondent for the Russian Telegram channel “Readovka,” Anastasia Yelsukova, she had just got her butt loaded with Ukrainian shell fragments; see Putin’s War, Week 48. The Logjam Breaks and the Leopards Are About to Roam the Ukrainian Landscape.
Do you remrmber that scum? 😉
The moment of the shrapnel wounding of Reedovka RUS journalist Anastasia Elsukova and PMC fighters at the Sol station near Soledar.
22 January 2023.She was captured today by Ukrainian forces in Kursk region. 😉😘😉
Next her videos from prison! 😉 https://t.co/tkSBbMrp0o pic.twitter.com/WDLT1oczTK— F76 (@f76pacificator) September 20, 2024
She apparently recovered and has been captured by Ukrainian forces in Kursk.
ruSSian propagandon Anastasia Elsukova (TG channel “Readovka”) captured in Lyubimivka, Kursk. pic.twitter.com/R32GniU98J
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝕯𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝕯𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱△ 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇺🇲🇬🇷 (@TheDeadDistrict) September 20, 2024
This is a sure sign that Russia’s Kursk counteroffensive is not on track.
Russian Propagandist Killed By Ukrainian Intelligence
The GUR claims the murder of Russian war correspondent Alexander Korobov, nicknamed “Crab”.
It was stated that yesterday his “skull was broken in Belgorod”, from which he died. A video was published with a bloody body lying on the ground.
The GUR makes it clear that it is… pic.twitter.com/2qQi9rBdjo
— Ukraine/Russia News (@UKRRUSNews) September 16, 2024
New Weapons
AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW)
The US is reported to have authorized the release of the AGM-154 Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW) now that F-16s have arrived in Ukraine. The weapon has a range of 70 miles.
Long overdue. JSOW would complement the existing effects generated by Ukrainian fixed-wing aviation with JDAM-ER and SDB. The variant Ukraine receives will be critical.
JSOW-A dispenses 145 Combined Effect Bomblets for area effects against soft targets. JSOW-A-1 shares a 500 lb… https://t.co/tIEj37sPPC pic.twitter.com/Qpa6KzpYiO
— John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 (@John_A_Ridge) September 20, 2024
Combat Operations
It Could’ve Been Worse
In this lengthy video, three Russian soldiers are taken prisoner by an undetermined number of Azov fighters who simply walked into their encampment, sat down, and started talking to them. The punchline is at 12:05. Another noticeable comment made by the Russians is the youth of the Azov men.
Three Russian soldiers encountered a group posing as an “airborne reconnaissance team.” To their surprise, the strangers were actually Azov fighters. In a clever operation, the Azov troops convinced the unsuspecting Russians to surrender. pic.twitter.com/m75aVZdnh2
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) September 17, 2024
This debrief covers many interesting topics. I recommend pausing it and dragging the counterline forward to read the captions.
Suddenly, Rum, Buggery, and the Lash Look Damned Good
The Russian “aircraft carrier” Admiral Kuznetsov has been in drydock for two years.
Russian aircraft carrier crew sent to frontline in Ukraine – Russia has formed a mechanised battalion from the crew of its only aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov.https://t.co/GfcPz5KD6a
— UK Defence Journal (@UKDefJournal) September 21, 2024
Donetsk Attacks Turned Back
To break through the defenses of the 79th Separate Air Assault Brigade near the village of Kostyantynivka in Donetsk, Russia launched an attack with 35 armored vehicles carrying infantry, supported by 9 tanks.
During the battle, Ukrainian forces destroyed 5 armored vehicles with… pic.twitter.com/AFF58esXTI
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 22, 2024
In the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces attempted to storm Ukrainian positions near the village of Pobjeda for two consecutive days, deploying 27 units of equipment and a company of personnel. Ukrainian forces from the 33rd Mechanized Brigade successfully defended their… pic.twitter.com/eGGhUM8bod
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) September 23, 2024
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
Russian Rescued By Ukrainian Drone
“A Baba Yaga drone came, dropped cookies and a life jacket”: unique footage of how the Ukrainian Armed Forces saved a Russian soldier abandoned by his command.
A drone spotted 22-year-old Russian marine Andrey Alimov on an island in Kherson region. He was holding a piece of… pic.twitter.com/z9geVnGKxf
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) September 20, 2024
When I Grow Up, I Want To Be Just Like Him
I will be the first to admit I don’t understand the Russian military psyche. Here, a Russian commander in shorts and flip-flops, replete with potbelly and moobs, issues orders to troops going out on a combat mission. According to the second video, the mission didn’t go all that well. If I had tried that with my troops, I’m not sure I would’ve liked the response. Of course, they could have been so overawed by my studly body and speedo that they just did what they were told… Seriously, how much will it take until fragging becomes a thing?
First. A commander, wearing slippers, shorts, and bare-chested, gives a briefing before sending a group of scouts from the 154th Separate Reconnaissance Battalion of the Russian Armed Forces on a combat mission.
Second. A group of scouts from the 154th Separate Reconnaissance… pic.twitter.com/IU2DNpvIXg— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) September 17, 2024
Another Day, Another Training Ground
I’ve posted several times on Ukrainian HIMARS strikes on training facilities, primarily in Donetsk, where new units are being put through their paces. The most recent was just a couple of weeks ago; see Putin’s War, Week 132. Russia’s Missile Blitz Meets Ukraine’s Drone Blitz.
This video is an up-close view of the aftermath of yet another strike that, according to Russian Telegram, resulted in over 50 casualties.
Lessons not learned: Aftermath footage of Ukrainian HIMARS GMLRS strike on Russian training ground in Donetsk region.
Russian sources say there are at least 50 casualties. pic.twitter.com/YARvkyi4NQ
— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 17, 2024
People are starting to take notice of it.
— Xabier (@Xabier_BCN) September 17, 2024
Sucks to Be Them
Russia: The 103 Russian conscripts captured in Kursk and swapped in the prisoner exchange today were taken right back to military bases near the frontline according to their shocked family members.
Earlier they expressed their delight at being able to go home to their families. pic.twitter.com/bbg117YYaH— Igor Sushko (@igorsushko) September 14, 2024
It’s the One You Don’t See
😅😅😅
Life is a strange thing. Not everything always works out the first time. This time, too.
The FPV drone did not detonate, flying straight to the RuZZian invader, but the second one backed it up. pic.twitter.com/jnpPEdQQXM
— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) September 22, 2024
You Can’t Lie on the Internet
Two Russian middle school students set fire to the Russian Air Force Mi-8 helicopter in Omsk.
Unknown people on the Internet promised them a $50K reward. pic.twitter.com/zRMY1KyOUl
— Clash Report (@clashreport) September 23, 2024
When Reach Exceeds Grasp
A Russian soldier attempted to descend to the ground along the outside of a destroyed multi-story building. He kinda succeeded. Toretsk, Donetsk region. https://t.co/njY77ZA3Qn pic.twitter.com/1zz3e3SWuj
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) September 20, 2024
Russian Front
Kursk
The Russian counteroffensive has basically stopped. Ukrainian forces continue to advance in some areas.
In less than a week since Russia has started it’s “Kursk Counter Offensive” they have gained 38 sq km towards Snagost and in the Glushkovo Salient they have lost 191 sq km or a net loss of 153 sq km so far. Map data courtesy of @MalcontentmentT pic.twitter.com/CjpnO5bZ2p
— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) September 15, 2024
Over the weekend, the Ukrainian Army opened a new axis of advance into Kursk to the west of the last axis.
🔥The Armed Forces of Ukraine broke through another section of the Russian border near Medvezhye, Kursk region.
The operation was carried out by units of the 95th separate assault-assault Polissia brigade of the DSHV 💪🇺🇦❤️❤️❤️ pic.twitter.com/HwUOmwdel0
— Гакрукс (@Gakruks1) September 23, 2024
The operational concept seems to be to open new fronts inside Russia every couple of weeks. Each new front is to the west of the last one. This forces Russia to move more troops over a longer distance to confront the new threat or risk having troops engaged in combat encircled.
The Guardian reports that the Russians were not surprised by the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk; see Revealed: Russia anticipated Kursk incursion months in advance, seized papers show | Russia | The Guardian.
Russia’s military command had anticipated Ukraine’s incursion into its Kursk region and had been making plans to prevent it for several months, according to a cache of documents that the Ukrainian army said it had seized from abandoned Russian positions in the region.
The disclosure makes the disarray among Russian forces after Ukraine’s attack in early August all the more embarrassing. The documents, shared with the Guardian, also reveal Russian concerns about morale in the ranks in Kursk, which intensified after the suicide of a soldier at the front who had reportedly been in a “prolonged state of depression due to his service in the Russian army”.
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Hlyboke-Vovchansk
Russian troops made minor advances in the area near Hlyboke, while Ukrainian forces made more substantial advances around Vovchansk, effectively liberating most of the city.
ISW – Geolocated footage – Russian forces recently advanced in dacha areas west of #Hlyboke (north of #Kharkiv City) and along the Travyanske Reservoir. #War_in_Ukraine pic.twitter.com/7LPhG0BX7V
— #War_in_Ukraine #Facts #Opinions #Trends #Kharkiv (@HarZizn) September 20, 2024
Kreminna-Kupyansk-Svatove
Combat continues, but the front remains stable.
KREMINNA AXIS /1800 UTC 21 SEPT/ UKR forces repel multiple Russian assaults east of Zherebets reservoir.
Russian APV and armor assault broken up by mines and FPV drones. pic.twitter.com/vTDtsa6ATC— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 21, 2024
Donbas
The most notable development in this sector is that the Russian offensive on the Pokrovsk axis, which was beginning to look problematic for the Ukrainian Army a couple of weeks ago, seems to have stopped, and the front has stabilized.
Bahkmut-Klishchiivka-Andriivka
There have been minor Russian positional gains, but the front lines seem to be stable.
Russian forces recently marginally advanced north of Chasiv Yar amid continued offensive operations in the area on September 19. Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Toretsk direction on September 19 but did not make any confirmed advances. (5/8) pic.twitter.com/jVcMrXynOd
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) September 20, 2024
Avdiivka
The Pokrovsk area seems to have stabilized and there have been some successful local counterattacks.
POKROVSK AXIS /1330 UTC 22 SEP/ Contact reports indicate UKR forces have advanced to the M-30 HWY. Russian forces are assessed as functioning at lower combat effectiveness. pic.twitter.com/N69rolPENP
— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) September 22, 2024
Ukrainian forces recently recaptured territory and Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the Pokrovsk direction amid continued fighting on September 19. (6/8) pic.twitter.com/3DaeJ4frtl
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) September 20, 2024
The Russian offensive has been stymied primarily because of the transfer of units to Kursk.
Frontline report: Russian forces finally sacrifice Pokrovsk offensive to defend Kursk
Ukraine has managed to alter battlefield dynamics with its Kursk incursion in just six weeks: Russia redeploys forces from crucial Pokrovsk offensive https://t.co/baXuZfNyiB
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) September 14, 2024
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
There was a low level of combat in this area, and the front lines remain stable.
Kherson
Combat operations continue in this area but with no changes in the front lines.
Rear Areas
Russia
Various Railways
So far Ukraine has now conducted 3 possibly 4 attacks on Russian trains with drones.
1. Sudzha Railyard
2. East of Tokmak
3. Tokmak Railyard
4. Kotluban Station pic.twitter.com/ikncC8t5La— Intelschizo (@Schizointel) September 14, 2024
What’s Next
The Ukrainians seem to have called a lid on major offensive operations for 2024. The operation in Kursk is looking more and more like an operation designed to pull Russian units out of Donbas and prevent Russia from gaining the administrative boundaries of that region. Allegedly, that is one of the issues that Putin wants to discuss with Gerasimov when they meet in October. I haven’t given up hope yet, but the time is running out.
Ukraine’s deep strikes against Russian ammunition supplies and oil refineries will begin to bite hard in the next 60 days as stocks closer to the front lines are run down. This should reduce the operational tempo of the Russian forces.
Ukraine seems to be gambling that Russia’s very real economic and manpower issues will make a negotiated settlement possible next year or in 2026. Even if a Trump victory results in reduced aid to Ukraine, and I’m not convinced it will, the new flow of funds from frozen Russian assets will take up a lot of the slack. Politically, I don’t think Trump will want to get saddled with the blame for withdrawing military support from two nations supported by the US.
