Here we are at the end of Week 126 of Putin’s War.
Last week was much less frenetic than the past month. The big story to keep an eye on is the ongoing squabble between Ukraine and Putin’s two overt allies in the EU, Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Hungary’s Viktor Orban.
Last week, Orban tried to insert himself into potential peace negotiations by visiting Kiev and Moscow, with a final stop in Beijing. Not only was Xi unenthusiastic, but the European Parliament made it clear that Orban was only speaking for himself, and the EU stripped Hungary of the traditional right of the country holding the presidency to host the annual meeting of EU foreign and defense ministers.
Both Slovakia and Hungary get about 70-80% of their oil from Russia through an EU agreement to waive sanctions. The hitch is that 100% of that Russian oil arrives via a pipeline that passes through Ukraine. Friday, Ukraine announced it was shutting down that pipeline to Russian oil.
Orban has threatened to retaliate against the EU (that is not a typo) unless it does something. That retaliation will come in the form of Hungary vetoing some €6.5 billion in reimbursements to member states for assistance provided to Ukraine. While I have no inside track to predict how this will play out, I will predict that, ultimately, Hungary will be stripped of its voting rights and, with that, its ability to block otherwise unanimous EU actions.
Ukraine and the EU are making a play for one of Russia’s pipeline customers. This is part of the ongoing strategy of weaning Europe off Russian oil.
The backstage arguments of what and how deep Ukraine will be allowed to strike inside Russia with US weapons continue. Despite Jake Sullivan’s best efforts, I think Joe Biden’s loss of clout and his own bureaucratic weakness will result in the limits being lifted.
Thursday, France’s high-speed rail system was knocked out of service by three coordinated acts of sabotage. A fourth act was foiled before it could be completed. You can read the story at France’s High Speed Rail System Is Disabled by Terror Attacks and There Is One Very Good Suspect. I think Russia is the best suspect. The attack is timed to embarrass Macron as the Olympics start. The rail lines materially affect the flow of armaments to Ukraine. The coordination and lack of casualties…this time…seem like a warning. I don’t see a motive for Islamists to hit the rail lines when the crowd in Paris would have gotten more attention. The real question is, what does Macron do about it?
Finally, I’ll offer my thoughts on why an incoming President Trump will not be able to end the war in Ukraine. As I pointed out several weeks ago, none of Putin’s preconditions for negotiations reflect the reality on the ground. His position is that Ukraine must acknowledge the Russian annexation of four oblasts comprising Ukraine’s entire Black Sea coastline. Recognizing the annexation requires Ukraine to retreat to the administrative borders of those oblasts; in the case of Kherson Oblast, that would require Ukraine to abandon Kherson City to the Russians. The military facts do not make that a reasonable starting position. I covered the various aspects of peace negotiations in this post: Russia Has Made Three Peace Proposals Since April, and They Have Two Things in Common – RedState. The terms were so harsh that former President Trump labeled them “unacceptable” in his debate with Joe Biden.
Instead of making his preconditions easier for a President Trump to accede to, Putin has doubled down. At a televised meeting just three days ago, he vowed to pull Occupied Ukraine down to Russia’s level by 2030, presumably by continuing the policy of Russian soldiers stealing toilets and washing machines to send home.
Trump may very well stop arming Ukraine and coerce it into giving up territory to boost Trump’s ego. But there is no way Trump will be able to package that result as anything other than a total cave to Putin.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card
Putin’s War, Week 124. NATO Summit Meets and Putin Levels a Hospital
Putin’s War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire
Putin’s War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles
Putin’s War, Week 120. Zelensky Gets Security Agreement With the US and the Repo Man Comes for Russia
Putin’s War, Week 119.
Putin’s War, Week 118. Ukraine Gets a Green Light From Biden and France Nearly Has ‘Boots on the Ground’
Putin’s War, Week 117. Jake Sullivan Under Fire, ATACMS Everywhere, and the Stalemate Continues
Putin’s War, Week 116. Russian Offensive Stalls, Ukraine Discovers Wild Weasel, and Blinken Plays Guitar
Putin’s War, Week 115. ATACMS Makes a Splash and Russia Opens a New Front
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Romanian Air Force Scrambles During Russian Drone Attack
Tuesday night, the Russians carried out a drone attack on the Ukrainian Danube port of Izmail. The aim points in the attack may or may not have been legitimate targets. The information on that and the results aren’t terribly clear right now. Izmail is across the river from Romania.
Two weeks ago, the Poles floated the idea of flying a combat air patrol over western Ukraine to prevent deep strikes by Russian drones. While that idea did not gain traction, Ukraine and Poland did reach an agreement that Poland will intercept Russian drones flying in the direction of Poland over Ukraine. Based on this incident, it seems inevitable that Romania will follow suit.
Fight Over Weapons Use Continues
Ukraine and its primary backers in NATO are not accepting Jake Sullivan’s veto on Ukraine using American-made weapons to strike targets in Russia. I expect this prohibition will be slowly removed.
I Hate It What That Happens
Stay Away From the Windows
Sanctions Have No Effect
Sanctions Have No Effect, Part Deux
I’ve posted a couple of times about the shadow attrition that is steadily reducing Russian combat sorties. An increasing number of aircraft are grounded because sanctions are reducing the availability of components Russia can’t produce. This is an example.
China’s Backdoor Sanctions Busting
Most major Chinese banks and companies are afraid to do business with Russia because of potential US/EU sanctions. But it isn’t hard to figure out how the trade continues, even if at a lower level.
However, to be fair, Germany’s trade picture has a certain similarity.
Gasoline Prices Surge and Export Ban Reimposed
A few weeks ago, I posted on the obscenity of Foreign Policy magazine, allowing a former Gazprom executive to write an article on how Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries didn’t matter (see Putin’s War, Week 122. Zelensky Scores, Putin Flops, and Crimea Under Fire – RedState). I thought he was wrong then, and I’m more convinced of that now.
First Tranche of Russian Reparations
Escalation In Retrospect
One of the driving factors in extending the fighting in Ukraine has been Jake Sullivan and his sycophants hyperventilating at the thought of “escalation.” The Atlantic Council takes a deep dive into that strategic worldview and comes up with what almost everyone already knows.
Latvia Builds Wall With Russia
Latvia has joined Lithuania, Estonia, and Poland in building fortified barriers along their borders with Russia.
Multipolar World, Russian Edition
It is hard to believe that anyone yearns for a “multipolar” world where multiple nations create their own spheres of influence and do what the hell they want, but that is the new big idea among some parts of the America First movement. They would really have loved Europe during the 17th and 18th centuries. Here, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lays out what it means in Nietzschean “will to power” terms.
If your “destiny” is to dominate Eastern Europe and Central Asia, well, hell, go for it.
Indoctrination
I’ve posted multiple times about the forced separation of Ukrainian children from their families and subsequent adoption into Russian households. According to Russian children’s commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova has said that more than 700,000 Ukrainian children have been taken from Ukraine to Russia. Some have found a home in Chechnya.
Perhaps related:
Putin’s Press Secretary Calls Russia’s Birthrate a Catastrophe
You want to know what else reduces the population? Losing a thousand men a day, killed and wounded.
Peak Russia
Putin Warns of Hard Times
In this extraordinary video, Putin tells the head of the Accounts Chamber there is “no extra money.” The entire interview can be read on the Kremlin website. It’s a clear warning to Russians to prepare for austere times.
Related:
Operational Level
The operational outlook remains essentially unchanged from last week. Russian offensive actions are focused on gaining the administrative boundaries of Donetsk and Luhansk. I would interpret that as an attempt to achieve something on the ground that could be sold as a win to the domestic audience during peace negotiations. I still don’t know how Putin can manage a climb-down from his annexation of about a fifth of Ukraine, but I don’t understand how some people in the comments section claim he won a free and fair election.
The Russians have shifted their focus from Chasiv Yar, though there are still attacks in that city, to Niu York and Toretsk. In doing so, in my view, they are favoring incremental advances focused on the administrative boundaries of Donetsk at the expense of the Adiivka sector, where the Ukrainian Army is clearly struggling.
While the Russians continue to maintain a relatively high OPTEMPO on the ground, the number of reported airstrikes is trending down. This is not unexpected, as I believe a shortage of parts will result in some serviceable aircraft being cannibalized to keep other aircraft mission-capable. Missile attacks follow the pattern of one large attack approximately every 30 days.
Ukraine is facing two operational challenges. Integrating newly formed units into a command structure that has been at war for two years and solving its internal supply problems to ensure units receive what they need when they need it.
North Korean Ammunition
South Korean Minister of National Defense Shin Won-sik said that 11,000 containers, enough for 5.2 million 152mm shells, had been shipped to Russia.
There are several takeaways from this. First, North Korea is not going to provoke a conflict with South Korea while it is cleaning out its ammunition depots. Second, the ammunition is of questionable quality, and there has been no apparent attempt by the Russian logistics chain to inspect it before sending it to the front. This has resulted in spot ammunition shortages and damaged artillery. Third, the Russian ammunition production system is not coping well with the current strain.
At some point, the well is going to run dry on the supply of North Korean ammunition. That may not matter because Russia is burning through gun tubes faster than it can replace them (see Putin’s War, Week 125. North Korea Sending Food to Russia Was Not on My Bingo Card),
Slovakian Ammunition
Slovakia’s current president, Robert Fico, is a Putin acolyte. The Slovak arms trade, though, is an independent actor. And the Russian-simping government is increasing ammunition production despite refusing to support Ukraine and knowing where the ammunition is going.
Japanese Patriot Missiles?
But seriously? After two years of massive government investment in their infrastructure, Boeing can’t keep up with the demand for missile seekers.
UK Starts Production of Artillery Barrels
Antique Artillery
Last week, I posted about World War II-era Russian artillery being pulled from depots and sent to the front. This is more of the same.
Su-25 Shootdown
This is the second Su-25 downed in July.
A Ukrainian drone captured the Su-25 as it augured in.
Combat Operations
Defending a Trench
This Go-Pro-style video was taken somewhere in Luhansk Oblast. A lone Ukrainian soldier is hiding in a dugout inside a trench. He emerges at 0:11 and 0:29 to engage Russian soldiers trying to clear the trench. It seems like his attacks are managed by radio, which implies drone surveillance.
Last week, I posted a similar video but of a Ukrainian soldier killing a Russian soldier hiding in a dugout. That was the one that gave Medvedev a case of the squirts and left him calling for more war crimes than the Russian Army already commits. It explains why the guy hiding in that dugout was gunned down so quickly.
Close Encounter of the Worst Kind
Chechen volunteers in the Ukrainian Army ambush a Russian patrol. The action starts at 0:31 when one of the Chechens signals that Russians are approaching. The ambush kicks off at 0:37. By 0:59, they feel secure enough to begin fighting their way across the kill zone. The dead point man is at 1:20, and by that time, there are only scattered shots that sound like they are coming from the Chechens. At 2:02, they collect a prisoner, and the bulk of the Russian dead are visible after 2:05. My estimate is there are five dead and one captured.
JDAM Strike on Russian Brigade Headquarters
Russian Buk Hit By HIMARS
A Russian Buk surface-to-air missile system is tracked by a Ukrainian reconnaissance drone and engaged by a HIMARS when it stops.
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
Tool Time
I’ve seen hundreds of videos of Russian and Ukrainian troops using grinders and other tools to open munitions. Don’t do it.
Russian Army Imitates “True Grit”
LaBouef: In my country you can ride for days and see no ground water. I have lapped filthy water from a hoofprint and was glad to have it. You don’t know what discomfort is until you have nearly perished for water.
Cogburn: If I ever meet one of you Texas waddies that says he never drank from a horse track I think I will shake his hand and give him a Daniel Webster cigar.
LaBoeuf: Then you don’t believe it?
Cogburn: I believed it the first twenty-five times I heard it.
All levity aside, you can’t drink this stuff without consequences that are either fatal or that you may wish to be fatal. Three weeks ago, I posted about the Russian Army suffering from outbreaks of dysentery (Putin’s War, Week 123. F-16s Wait in the Wings, More Weapons Arrive, and the Momentum Shifts – RedState). This is what causes it. Soldiers drink this stuff because their logistics system can handle the burden of providing potable water. I have drunk some less than pure water in my time. I always strained through my trusty “drive-on rag” and put enough iodine tabs in my canteen to make my thyroid do the Electric Slide. There is no way to make this crap potable if you are collecting it by hand.
Has To Be Seen To Be Believed
Act in Haste…
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Hlyboke-Vovchansk
The situation continues as it has for the past few weeks. There is positional combat. Both sides are making gains and suffering losses. This area does not seem vulnerable to a Russian breakthrough, and Ukraine is probably unwilling to expend the resources it will take to reclaim the small amount of lost territory. Ukrainian reports on the fighting characterize Ukrainian actions as nighttime raids to keep the Russians off balance, attrit Russian forces, and gather information.
Kupyansk-Svatove
This area is the scene of a lot of small-scale fighting. There have been some Russian gains, but nothing indicating they are more than positional.
Donbas
Bahkmut-Toretsk
This area has seen the most intense fighting, with the Russians expending a lot of time and resources attempting to take the town of Niu York.
Avdiivka
Russian forces made gains in several areas on this front. In my view, this area remains the greatest cause of concern for the Ukrainian Army. The Russian Army maintains a high OPTEMPO here, but resources seem to have been diverted to the Bakhmut area. As I noted last week, the Ukrainians are on the cusp of being forced to abandon a large, nearly encircled area.
This area has been problematic since April 20, with problems beginning when a relief-in-place nearly resulted in a tactical breakthrough.
The command and coordination problems that set the stage for that fiasco have not improved. The Ukrainian high command will have to learn to deal with this problem as it fields new brigades. The danger now is that a misstep will lead to catastrophe.
Confusion among Ukrainian commanders is a factor. The Russian breakthrough around Ocheretyne in April threw the Ukrainians off-balance—and they’re still struggling to recover.
“The Russian command attacks … those brigades that have the weakest management and organization,” Butusov explained, seemingly referring to the 110th Mechanized Brigade and 111th Territorial Defense Brigade. “That is, the enemy is not looking for … the most vulnerable defense borders, but the most vulnerable units.”
The chronic lack of coordination and what seems like effective command here could unhinge the front line and require a massive effort to salvage the situation.
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka
This area remains stable. There is some low-level combat and a few positional changes favoring both sides.
Kherson
This area remains relatively quiet after Ukrainian troops abandoned positions in the town of Krynky last week due to artillery and airstrikes.
Rear Areas
Crimea
Battle Damage Assessment
I reported on this attack last week; now we have some imagery to go with the report.
Russia
Port, Kavkaz, Krasnodar Krai
Cargo ferries are the primary means of supplying the civilian population in Crimea and the Russian Army operating there.
Airbase, Morozovsk, Rostov Oblast
Morozovsk is about 180 miles behind the line of contact.
Intelligence Activity
Russia claims that the assailant escaped by plane to Turkey but was arrested upon arrival and extradited. There is no independent confirmation of that claim.
What’s Next
We’re getting close to the arrival of the first tranche of F-16s; I’d expect to see them in action within two weeks. This will make the lives of Russian striker pilots a lot more entertaining. The Russians have been using glide bombs to augment, and I think to supplant, artillery worn out by overuse. Having to send out the strikers with a fighter escort is going to radically reduce the number of sorties and increase the supply chain problems for the Russian Air Force. It will also open up many more Russian supply dumps and headquarters to possible attack.
My gut feeling remains the same. The localized advances by the Russians in Luhansk and Donetsk will be tolerated. The Leopards, Strykers, and Abrams we saw last year have vanished from sight. Sometime before the autumn rains start, I think Ukraine will launch a limited offensive designed to cut off land access to Crimea from Russia.
