We’re now 855 days into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempted Anschluss with the rogue province of Ukraine, and time to take store of where we are and where we may be going.
Over the last week, Ukraine has had a series of diplomatic successes even as the shooting war has become static. I cover these happenings — EU accession talks, the EU finally agreeing to use Russian assets to help Ukraine, forcing Hungary to stop blocking aid to Ukraine by NATO and the EU, and the indictment of Russian officials on war crimes charges — in another post.
BACKGROUND: Zelensky Chalks Up Four Major Political Wins and It Is Only Tuesday
We can add two other political wins for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to that list. Ukraine negotiated a 10-year security pact with the EU, just like the one it has negotiated with the US and 16 other countries.
RELATED: US Signs 10-Year Security Agreement With Ukraine at G7 Summit
It also achieved a major victory at the European Court of Human Rights: Russia Committed Human Rights Violations in Crimea, European Court Finds.
The European Court of Human Rights ruled on Tuesday that Russia and its proxy security forces in Crimea have committed multiple human rights violations during its decade-long occupation of the Ukrainian territory.
In a case brought by the government of Ukraine, the court found evidence of the unlawful persecution and detention of those who criticized Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, as well as the systemic repression of ethnic and religious minorities in Crimea. The evidence presented to the court painted a picture of a region under the tight grip of Moscow’s authoritarian control, where any criticism is harshly punished and accountability is nonexistent for the politically connected.
The ruling from Europe’s most important human rights court, based on a case first brought in 2014, was a reminder that the region remains contested. It remains legally part of Ukraine, with deep historical and cultural ties, despite the Kremlin’s coordinated campaign to obliterate that identity under the occupation.
Russia is also systematically obliterating Ukraine’s historical patrimony. In what is nearly an homage to Joni Mitchell’s “Big Yellow Taxi,” the Russians have torn down the 2,500-year-old UNESCO World Heritage Site, the “Ancient City of Tauric Chersonese and its Chora,” and put up a cheesy outdoor theater.
I’m sure a lot of Putin’s fans will pooh-pooh the ICC arrest warrants (Putin has one of these) and the ECHR judgment, but they exist independently of the war. This makes it more difficult for countries not called North Korea to deal with Russia. And these rulings and their impact will exist after the war draws to an end.
Putin attempted to break out of his diplomatic isolation by visiting North Korea (the first country that any nation trying to break out of diplomatic isolation visits) and Vietnam. As I posted, the gambit hasn’t worked out all that well.
RELATED:
North Korea Promises to Send Troops and Workers to Support Russia in Ukraine
Putin’s Visit to North Korea and Vietnam May Have Done Him More Harm Than Good
Game Changer: Russia Signs Mutual Defense Treaty With North Korea
In a bid to bully the easily bullied Jake Sullivan into restricting, Russia is making a big stink about some civilian deaths caused by Russian air defense shooting down a Urkainian ATACMS (American-made) over a crowded beach. Unlike previous threats of dire consequences, this one seems to have been ignored by everyone.
BACKGROUND: Russia Blames US for Damage Caused by Ukrainian-Fired Missile Shot Down by Russia
The war in Ukraine surfaced briefly in the Biden-Trump debate last night. I’m not sure Biden can find Ukraine on a map, and I’m sure Trump does not have a plan for ending the war that is deeper than a couple of bumper stickers. The hopeful message was the quickness with which Trump declared that Putin’s “peace plan” was unacceptable.
And a final nugget for the “Zowie, OMG, it’s World War III” crowd, the Biden defense department may authorize civilian contractors to work in Ukraine to repair equipment.
News: The Biden administration is moving toward lifting a de facto ban on American military contractors deploying to Ukraine to help the country’s military maintain and repair US-provided weapons systems, per 4 US officials. w/@OrenCNN https://t.co/7wM8iEvIxx
— Natasha Bertrand (@NatashaBertrand) June 25, 2024
I’m not clear if that is one step above or below advisors and the Gulf of Tonkin incident.
Here are some of my past updates.
Putin’s War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles
Putin’s War, Week 120. Zelensky Gets Security Agreement With the US and the Repo Man Comes for Russia
Putin’s War, Week 119.
Putin’s War, Week 118. Ukraine Gets a Green Light From Biden and France Nearly Has ‘Boots on the Ground’
Putin’s War, Week 117. Jake Sullivan Under Fire, ATACMS Everywhere, and the Stalemate Continues
Putin’s War, Week 116. Russian Offensive Stalls, Ukraine Discovers Wild Weasel, and Blinken Plays Guitar
Putin’s War, Week 115. ATACMS Makes a Splash and Russia Opens a New Front
For all my Ukraine War coverage, click here.
Politico-Strategic Level
Housecleaning Continues, Part 1
The Defense Ministry’s re-ordering after Sergei Shoigu’s departure continues. I have covered this in other posts on this site.
BACKGROUND:
The Purge of Russia’s Defense Ministry Spreads – RedState
Three Resignations and a High Profile Arrest Show the Purge of Russia’s Defense Ministry Is Gaining Speed – RedState
Top Aide to Russia’s Defense Minister Arrested for Corruption and Maybe Treason. What’s Going on?
Putin Sacks Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Shakes Up Russia’s Security Council
This is the newest round.
From Beyond Prigozhin Smiles: A Decree has been signed which dismisses from the military service of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation for corruption:
• Pankov Nikolay Alexandrovich, State Secretary
Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation• Ruslan… pic.twitter.com/S5AeGLEot1
— James Porrazzo (@JamesPorrazzo) June 20, 2024
What is notable is that the replacements are all Putin loyalists and not brought in by the new Defense Minister.
Putin has appointed Anna Tsivileva, Leonid Gornin, Pavel Fradkov as new deputies at MoD.What does it tell us:
– Tsivileva is called Putin’s great-niece
– Fradkov is the son of former PM and Foreign intelligence service head Mikhail Fradkov
– None of them are from Belousov’s team— Alexandra Prokopenko (@amenka) June 17, 2024
This indicates that Belousov is on a short leash and has no remit to reform the Defense Ministry.
Housecleaning Continues, Part 2
Sergei Beseda, head of the FSB directorate charged with intelligence gathering in the former Soviet Republics, will retire. Allegedly, he is blamed for giving Putin bad information that led him to think the Ukraine invasion force would meet little resistance (I was also told NATO fooled Putin into attacking Ukraine). His removal will coincide with his reaching the mandatory retirement age of 70.
Allegedly head of the 5th directorate of the FSB Sergei Beseda has been fired. Putin relied on information from this department to invade Ukraine and according to directorate “there will be no resistance”.
His place will allegedly be taken by Alexei Komkov and Beseda will became… pic.twitter.com/KB26H0QXRS— Jaanika Merilo (@jaanikamerilo) June 23, 2024
It is sort of amazing that the man responsible for such an epic and possibly regime-ending blunder could survive over two years…but then I look at our own Intelligence Community.
As a note, some strongly argue that this is the first step in removing geriatrics from the FSB. I have to confess to not being sufficiently familiar with Kremlin politics to evaluate that claim. Read the whole thread.
Rather, it is that he has reached the compulsory retirement age of 70 and although he could stay in post by presidential decree, where his failings come in is in that he doesn’t have the political capital to get that, even if he wants to 4/
— Mark Galeotti (@MarkGaleotti) June 24, 2024
New NATO Secretary General
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will be NATO’s new Secretary General, replacing Norway’s Jens Stoltenberg. Rutte will most likely do a good job strengthening NATO internally and nudging everyone toward the 2%-of-GDP spending target. At this point, I would have preferred just about anyone from Poland, the Baltic States, or Czechia, but you go with the secretary general you have, not the one you want. Read the whole thread.
1/25 Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte has been appointed as the new secretary general of NATO. What changes will this bring, and what challenges will he encounter in this new role? pic.twitter.com/OPwaw9aRg7
— Joni Askola (@joni_askola) June 26, 2024
By the way, when Donald Trump inevitably takes credit for increased defense spending by NATO members, it was Russian threats and violence that accomplished that, not Trump’s threats.
NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg announced today during a speech to @TheWilsonCenter that over 20 of NATO’s 32 members will spend over 2% of GDP on defence this year.
In 2014 that number was just 3. In 2022 it was still just 7, and 11 last year in 2023.
The full-scale… pic.twitter.com/ApUNvT9htc
— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) June 17, 2024
North Korea Sending Troops to Ukraine
Read the whole story at North Korea Promises to Send Troops and Workers to Support Russia in Ukraine.
Not Sure This Is Going to Work
Meet Orthodox oligarch Konstantin Malofeev’s new brainchild – “Fraternity of the Academics”
The student movement envisions the 21st century as potentially becoming “a golden century of Russian culture w/Russian ideological dominance on a global scale” 😬 https://t.co/7GRMsidGn5
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 22, 2024
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 22 June 2024.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/rdsFLqcOYi #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/apEZFE2zZQ
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 22, 2024
For more on Malofeev, follow the link.
Debate Over Strikes on Russian Refineries
Foreign Policy has an interesting article debating the efficacy of Ukrainian drone strikes. It is a former Gazprom executive responding to a May Foreign Policy article making the case for refinery attacks by arguing that a) the strikes don’t matter and b) that even if they did matter they may lead to ESCALATiON!!1! and Russia attacking Ukraine’s energy grid which he goes on to admit they are already doing. I find the argument to be tiresome and disingenuous. The Gazprom guy conflates, I think deliberately, oil production with gasoline/diesel/distillates production. He ignores that the attacks are destroying equipment that Russia must import clandestinely. His big lie about Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy grid would make Goebbels or Stalin grin. Enjoy.
Russian Fire Provides Insight on the Russian Economy
An office building near Moscow caught fire Monday. At least eight people died including two who were caught on video leaping to their deaths to avoid burning alive. But there is more to the story.
“The [russian] authorities explained with shocking frankness why people cried out for help for several hours and were burned alive without receiving it during the fire in Fryazino [near Moscow].
The reason is the low salaries of firefighters and emergency workers. Nobody wants to… pic.twitter.com/ZeDdFeM8es— PS01 (@PStyle0ne1) June 26, 2024
Russia Takes the Helm of the UN Security Council
On July 1, Russia becomes president of the UN Security Council. I’m sure it will be lit.
Hard as it is to believe, it’s again Russia’s turn to assume presidency of the UN Security Council in July, a body which ironically is charged with maintaining global peace and security.
It also means the Security Council is being led by a country whose president is subject to… pic.twitter.com/HsLFPBig5A
— Yasmina (@yasminalombaert) June 22, 2024
They’re Satanists, I Tell You
It’s another episode of a Russian political talk show for your enjoyment. I think he comments on my Ukraine posts.
Russian propagandists:
“The West is ready to bury the whole world, the whole world civilization! They’re Satanists! They consciously worship death, murder, rape, robbery. They want to sacrifice the whole world to Satan. Either it has gone mad, or it doesn’t understand what is… pic.twitter.com/jT1uW9kjmX
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 26, 2024
Operational Level
The frontlines are relatively stable. The Ukrainians seem to have prioritized demolishing the Russian “buffer zone” in the Kharkiv region and deterring an attack from Russia into Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast. The pro-Russian commenters always talk about the “breakthroughs” and “cauldrons” created by the ever-victorious Russian Army. The maps tell a different story. The front has barely changed over the course of Ukaine’s Summer Offensive and Russia’s Winter Offensive.
Eye test: Try to identify which map is more recent without squinting..
It’s crazy that all the panic and fearmongering, as well as all the pessimism really comes down to this. https://t.co/H94rkWHbAW
— Astraia Intel (@astraiaintel) June 24, 2024
Yearly changes barely noticeable even at 40000 km2 zoom of most active front pic.twitter.com/NDCenWOwGk
— Vitaly (@M0nstas) June 24, 2024
The pace of Russian ground attacks picked up and reached an intensity on par with the height of the Russian Winter Offensive. However, all attacks are not equal. The attacks are smaller. The number of Russian airstrikes continues to decline. I think this reflects the effect I posted about a couple of weeks ago of attrition by sanctions. The same shortage of spare parts that devastated Russian commercial air traffic probably hit the Russian Air Force. The last major Russian missile attack was on June 2, so we are now overdue for one, according to the established pattern. In a change from the past six months, Ukrainian Telegram channels report that Ukrainian artillery is at parity or better with Russian artillery in volume of fire.
One of the most significant operational events over the last week is the revelation that Ukraine has basically closed Sevastopol to maritime traffic by mining the approaches. It turns out that the same technology that has driven the Russian Black Sea Fleet out of Crimea can deliver mines.
⚡️The 🇷🇺Russians confirm the mining of Sevastopol Bay by 🇺🇦Ukrainian surface drones pic.twitter.com/5onvouOz61
— 🪖Military news (@front_ukrainian) June 26, 2024
The Russians built a system of barriers at the entrance to Sevastopol Bay to keep out Ukrainian suicide drones. Faced with this, the Ukrainians adapted their drones to drop anti-ship mines in the channels.
180 kg. They are difficult to find, since they lie in the silt under the shallow water, use acoustic and electromagnetic sensors to detect the presence of the ship, causing a detonation. For 1.5 months, a team of Ukrainian special services tracked the routes of sea ships
3/7 pic.twitter.com/bkgUn64ivS— Artur Rehi (@ArturRehi) June 25, 2024
According to a report in the Wall Street Journal, the effort has been successful (How Ukraine’s Naval Drones Turned the Tide in the Battle of the Black Sea). Ironically, one of the ships damaged by Ukrainian mines was a Russian mine countermeasures ship.
Zelensky Fires Another General
Last week, I posted about Zelensky cashiering a general linked to two major battlefield disasters. This week, he fired another one for being a typical Soviet/Russian general who was careless, if not downright disdainful, of the lives of his men. In this case, the removal was the result of complaints from tactical units.
A prominent Ukrainian officer this week accused a top commander of incompetence, blaming him for “thousands” of casualties in a rare public criticism from within the military that reflects growing discontent among the troops as Russia has advanced on the battlefield.
Maj. Bohdan Krotevych, the chief of staff of the influential Azov Brigade, filed a request to Ukraine’s State Bureau of Investigation concerning “a military general who in my opinion has killed more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general,” he wrote Monday in a post on Telegram.
Within hours, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he had replaced Lt. Gen. Yuriy Sodol as Ukraine’s Joint Forces’ commander. Sodol is also in charge of the ground forces for the critical section of the front stretching across the eastern Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions, and is expected to be removed from that post as well.
The incident is the latest in a series of military leadership shake-ups this year amid Ukraine’s struggles along the 600-mile front line. Sodol had been in the post for just four months after he was installed by Ukrainian military chief Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrsky, whom Zelensky only appointed to the top position earlier this year.
This is the complaint that caused Sodol’s removal.
“Azov” battalion Chief of Staff, Bohdan Krotevych, has lodged an official complaint against a #Ukraine General who has “killed more Ukrainian soldiers than any Russian general”
He also claims “99% of the military hate him.” pic.twitter.com/PAq4Sfo0NR
— Tim White (@TWMCLtd) June 23, 2024
Sodol was the mastermind behind the crossing of the Dnieper River, which had no visible operational impact — Russia moved troops from that area to other fronts, showing that the operation had no effect on Russian operations. Both sides suffer from having sprung from the Red Army. Command slots are allocated by political considerations and membership in the right “good ol’ boy” network. Favored officers are pulled into higher headquarters, and less favored officers have combat commands. Zelensky has to break this command-by-clique system down because I’m not sure the Ukrainian military is capable of doing it on its own.
Russian Satellite Center Destroyed
Ordinarily, I’d post this in the “Crimea” section of the update, but it is so significant that it deserves more attention because it has an impact that will ripple through all Russian military operations. Monday, Ukraine fire a volley of eight ATACMS at a Russian Space Tracking and Communications Center at Yevpatoriya, Occupied Crimea.
Missile strikes in the Yevpatoriya area of Crimea are reported. Presumably somewhere near the village of Vitino (to the west from Yevpatoriya)https://t.co/ejsHq5Zq8B pic.twitter.com/D9BPr2JDGJ
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 23, 2024
💥 據報道,烏克蘭 ATACMS 襲擊了被佔領克里米亞的葉夫帕托裡亞。
💥 Ukrainian ATACMS strikes reported on Yevpatoriya in occupied Crimea. pic.twitter.com/SEMcSOp7Fv
— weiting (@wtliu0331) June 23, 2024
Ukraine launched eight ATACMS at night and eight ATACMS impacted in Yevpatoriya in occupied Crimea, at night, on Russia’s Space Tracking and Communication Center (NIP-16).
Ukrainian Night vs Russian Day🧵
1/ pic.twitter.com/DTtvbCg9Lb— Trent Telenko (@TrentTelenko) June 23, 2024
This will interfere with Russia’s ability to gather satellite imagery and other information.
Pay to Slay
The Russian military is relying on large bonuses to attract sufficient recruits so the government can avoid increasing conscription and the economic dislocation and possible social unrest that will result. At today’s exchange rate, 100 rubles is $1.13. The bonus for advancing one kilometer is 50,000 rubles or about $567. The Russian Winter Offensive had gains of one kilometer is only a handful of places.
Your base salary + benefits is about 500% of a normal salary.
Additionally, you earn another 8000 ruble per day of combat operations.
There are additional bonuses, for example if you are in an assault unit and advance 1km you get 50000 ruble.
Source: https://t.co/VLJBfmOlDJ— Def Mon (@DefMon3) June 23, 2024
More Russian Redployments to Ukraine
Last week, I posted about Russian troops being transferred from the Russo-Finnish frontier and the Russian Far East to combat in Ukraine. We can now add surface-to-air missiles from the disputed Kuril Islands to that tally.
“Moscovia just transported last S-300 from Kuryl Islands to Crimea, 8000 km. Nyet problem – normal katastrof” pic.twitter.com/A198yC9PEy
— Mijhail the Martian. NAFO Mars 🇻🇪🇺🇦🇮🇱🇬🇪 (@mijhailjmd) June 21, 2024
Prisoner of War Exchange
The 53d swap of prisoners of war took place involving 90 prisoners on each side. The UAE is serving as the broker.
#UkraineRussiaWar | 90 prisoners of war have been returned to #Ulraine. Today marks the 53rd #POW exchange since the start of the full-scale invasion. 3,300 have come home since then. 90 captured Russians were returned in the swap. pic.twitter.com/0U4tk4YYOH
— Michael Linder (@michaellinder) June 25, 2024
Ukrainian soldiers return from Russian captivity as part of a prisoner exchange on June 25, 2024, in Sumy Oblast. Ukraine and Russia each returned 90 prisoners of war, one among several periodic swaps in more than two years of the war. pic.twitter.com/zzxLEBFq0t
— Sam’s Collectors Universe (@cucomics) June 26, 2024
Kharkiv and Odesa Hit by Russian Airstrike
The Russian military said this was a mistake; they were aiming at a police hospital in the same area. I am not making that up. For my vatnik readers, hospitals, whether military or civilian, are not lawful targets.
Today, a russian glide bomb struck Kharkiv near an apartment building situated right in front of the busiest bus station. There is no military presence in there—just ordinary people going about their day.
According to the latest data, at least 3 people have been killed, and a… pic.twitter.com/pUkp4gKAWb
— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) June 22, 2024
There is no word on what they mistook the grocery chain warehouse in Odesa for.
Russian strike on Odesa destroyed over 24,000 square meters of the warehouses of a supermarket chain.
Four people were injured.
“There was never any ammunition, weapons or shells in the warehouse. Groceries, food and non-food products were stored there – everything necessary… https://t.co/RazE9LsZEJ pic.twitter.com/vVZtowb70k
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2024
⚡️Russians launched a missile attack on the city of Dnipro, central Ukraine.
They struck a nine-story residential building, destroying several floors.
The number of injured is not known yet.
📹Dnipro Operatyvnyy Telegram pic.twitter.com/W8Er41Yjrq
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 28, 2024
Two more videos from #Dnipro – this showing the damage on the street in addition to the destruction of the apartment block. pic.twitter.com/fRpHNjTXCK
— Tim White (@TWMCLtd) June 28, 2024
Nearing Collapse
If you are triggered by human brutality, don’t watch this video.
Three Russian soldiers are on the move. The context is unclear, but it seems to be Russian troops retreating from Verbove in Zaporzhzhia. The Number Two man is hit by an FPV. What follows will probably become a metaphor for the Russian experience in Ukraine.
RIDICULOUS 😬🔞
Group of Russians are coming, an FPV flies into one of the orks… and he just ask shoot him in the head… pic.twitter.com/EtxbGaMuGL
— MAKS 24 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) June 22, 2024
In the West we have Saving Private Ryan.
A movie about a squad of soldiers risking everything to save one man.
Meanwhile in ruSSia, they have this…… pic.twitter.com/4NAYMusBLX
— Fellaraktar🇺🇦 (@fellaraktar) June 23, 2024
I have a book somewhere in my library that describes Soviet “tank riders” in World War II. These were soldiers who were assigned to go into battle riding on Soviet tanks. This wasn’t a pick-up gig; it was their full-time assignment. The Allied officer observing them noted that they had abandoned any veneer of civilized behavior. They were cruel and merciless to friend and foe, totally reckless in the attack, and wildly undisciplined in camp. The casual way this shooting is done gives the impression that these men don’t care if they live or die. They won’t change when they get home.
Russia has sent so many men to join its war in Ukraine that crime levels in the country fell soon after the invasion began. Now their return is starting to unleash a wave of crime. https://t.co/aFs57tv47K
— The Japan Times (@japantimes) June 23, 2024
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 26 June 2024.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence’s use of language: https://t.co/rdsFLqcOYi #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/98N4IMNnyV
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) June 26, 2024
On the Other Hand
When medical care isn’t a priority, maybe a bullet in the head doesn’t look all that daunting.
1/ Injured Russian soldiers report that they are being sent straight back to fighting in Ukraine without any medical treatment or admission to hospitals. Their superiors are unsympathetic: “Fuck you and your fucking splinters! Don’t fucking piss me off! I’ll fucking kill you!”⬇️ pic.twitter.com/hKwtBGXKne
— ChrisO_wiki (@ChrisO_wiki) June 23, 2024
1917 Looming?
So many of these stories are emerging from the Russian forces on the Belgorod-Kharkiv border that even if they aren’t individually true, they indicate an army on the verge of collapse.
Mass surrenders, desertions & collapse of some russian units‼️
If you have a few minutes & the patience to read fine print, “The Analyst” provides an assessment of how bad the situation is for russia in Kharkiv pic.twitter.com/ROfhhWYROb
— Rocke Fella – NAFO Raccoon (@NAFORaccoon) June 26, 2024
Starlink Saga Continues
I’ve posted several times on Elon Musk’s Starlink selling internet terminals to the Russian military. Musk got a lot of praise early in the war for making Starlink available for free to the Ukrainian military. Then, we found that Starlink had geofenced Crimea, so Starlink data couldn’t be used for weapons guidance. But they didn’t do the same thing to Ukraine, so the Russians could use it to attack Ukrainian targets. We also found Starlink’s claims it didn’t sell to Russia to be “parsimonious with the truth” as an authorized Chinese Starlink reseller openly advertised Starlink terminals in Russia. Now, there is more evidence that Starlink has fairly widespread use in the Russian military.
Meanwhile, orcs happily continue fundraising for Starlinks. This means that the terminals are operational and are used for the military needs of the occupiers. The cost of the terminal and subscription for about 6 months costs them 136k rubles, or £1200+. pic.twitter.com/faVu8hMw3b
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 25, 2024
BACKGROUND:
Putin’s War, Week 102. Zaluzhny Is Out, Syrsky Is In, and the Ukraine Aid Bill Advances
Putin’s War, Week 103. Avdiivka Abandoned
Putin’s War, Week 105. Sweden Prepares to Be Heard – RedState
Putin’s War, Week 117. Jake Sullivan Under Fire, ATACMS Everywhere, and the Stalemate Continues – RedState
More Patriots Headed to Ukraine
Spain delivers second batch of Patriot missiles to Ukraine, bolstering air defenses.
Package includes Leopard tanks, ammo, and anti-drone systems. Part of €1B military aid agreement for 2024.https://t.co/E7OayGrVAs
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) June 26, 2024
The Netherlands teams up with another country to supply Ukraine with Patriot system https://t.co/Vk0xUfGE0a
— NL Times (@NL_Times) June 21, 2024
For those keeping track, Spain is one of the countries which cause JD Vance to lose his crap over it having Patriot missile deliveries delayed. For more information on this numbskullery, read my analysis in Putin’s War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles.
The big deal shaping up is this one.
🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱🇺🇦 Per @FT, the U.S. is negotiating to transfer Israeli PATRIOT fire units to Ukraine. Israel operates 8 PATRIOT fire units that are being retired.
The transfer will potentially be structured as a sale to the U.S., followed by a grant to Ukraine.
🔗 in alt text pic.twitter.com/fsvpViwiJX
— John Ridge 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 (@John_A_Ridge) June 27, 2024
These systems have already been retired, and so they are available immediately. If all eight fire units are sent to Ukraine, that will more than double the number currently defending Ukrainian cities.
If Ukraine 🇺🇦 gets 8 Patriot Systems from Israel then it would be enough for Ukraine to defend almost every single major city, several F-16 air bases, a number of critical infrastructure sites, and have 4 Patriots closing nearly half of the air space to Russian jets on the front pic.twitter.com/b6GmmTtzY5
— Ukraine Battle Map (@ukraine_map) June 27, 2024
Ammunition Update
This is one of the tangible results of Putin’s War. The American defense industrial base was utterly devastated in the aftermath of the end of the Cold War. The residual manufacturing capability barely kept up with maintaining US stockpiles. Putin’s War showed that in a sh**-kicker with a near-peer competitor, we simply could not produce enough ammunition for sustained combat. Thankfully, we have the time to fix this and other defense industrial issues at our leisure and not while we’re fighting China.
🇺🇲🇺🇦 WSJ reports that the first of three production lines at the new General Dynamics Ordnance & Tactical Systems 155mm shell body plant in Mesquite will be fully operational by the fall.
As previously reported, workers from Turkish firm Repkon, the main subcontractor, are… https://t.co/mglkWHunw5 pic.twitter.com/YDOSL8yKT6
— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) June 24, 2024
According to 🇨🇿#Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, the first shipment of ammunition from the Czech initiative has already arrived at the front.
🇨🇿🤝🇺🇦 https://t.co/ZGI8BDUpii pic.twitter.com/RRhNOOYAhA
— 𝕻𝖗𝖆𝖎𝖘𝖊 𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕾𝖙𝖊𝖕𝖍 (@praisethesteph) June 25, 2024
What is most amusing is that it seems that some of the contributions to the Czech project to round up 155mm artillery ammunition came from Russia’s ally, Serbia.
Russian state TV presenter Sergei Mardan calls Serbia a “whore” and says “the Serbs are no longer brothers to the Russians, but enemies”.
These comments came after reports that Serbia, through third countries, supplied Ukraine with ammunition worth about 800 million euros. pic.twitter.com/aIhxfDhLOk
— Clash Report (@clashreport) June 25, 2024
Russian Tank Attrition
Russia has suffered an unprecedented level of attrition in its tank inventory. The question is whether its industrial base can stop the death spiral. This is an interesting look at the situation. Read the whole thread.
🚨NEW: Russia bleeds tanks. We wanted to know how long Russia can hold out with the current losses, using heaps of old tanks from military bases. And used #AI to count & analyze fading tanks stocks. Visual investigation as @SZ_Investigativ together with @Se_Gier & @SZ visual team pic.twitter.com/nyOp1dD70U
— techjournalisto (@Techjournalisto) June 26, 2024
New Weapons
Hawkeye Self-Propelled 105mm Howitzer
The Army announced it has sent the prototype 105 mm Hawkeye Mobile Howitzer System to Ukraine for testing and evaluation. This move is the first of its kind and raises the unanswered questions of whether military or contractor personnel are with the equipment and, if not, how reliable the evaluation is.
“We recently put a 105 mm system into Ukraine. We shipped it in April and trained for two weeks,” Evans stated. “That system is destined to be one of the first soft recoil systems in combat. It’s going into combat to test on live targets.”
The Hawkeye Mobile Howitzer is known for its high mobility and versatility. It can be transported by various means, including transport aircraft, helicopters, and can even be air-dropped. The platform’s stability is ensured by four hydraulic stabilizers, allowing for horizontal aiming of 180 degrees and vertical aiming from -5 to +72 degrees. The system is designed for a crew of four, but can be operated by just two if necessary.
Arash Drone
Russian use of the Arash 2 in Ukraine has been confirmed. It has a reported strike range of up to 2,000 km and carries a 150 kg warhead. It is a larger and more capable version of the original Arash drone, with a wingspan of up to 4 meters and a length of 4.5 meters.
Combat Operations
Ukrainian Air Force Increases Activity
This is a JDAM strike on a Russian base camp on the left bank of the Dnieper in Zaporizhzhia. We are seeing an increased number of video clips of Ukrainian airstrikes.
Something what we are increasingly seeing. Precision strikes by the Ukrainian JDAM/Hammer bombs, this time against a Russian base in Dniprorudne. Coordinates of that strike:
47°23’25″N 34°59’23″E
Source: Telegram / Bavovna pic.twitter.com/mzYiyFDKQu
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 23, 2024
Ukrainian Counterattack in Kharkiv Area
This is a Ukrainian assault team clearing a Russian position somewhere in the Kharkiv area. What is notable is that the ground forces seem to be guided by someone monitoring the situation by drone. While this does give an increased level of situational awareness, there is a downside. It is much easier to take risks when you don’t have skin in the game.
“Surrender, f*cker!” – GoPro footage of the clearing of a position in Kharkiv region.
This is how Ukrainian Warriors of the 3rd Assault Brigade took back one of the positions where the Russians were entrenched.
📹: The 3rd Company of the 1st Assault Battalion of the 3rd… pic.twitter.com/rerMjJpTRa
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 22, 2024
Wastage
This 4-minute video gives you an idea of the losses the Russians took to move a few kilometers west of Avdiivka. Note that the only operational vehicles encountered are civilian ones; all armored vehicles are immobilized or destroyed.
This video really captures a bit what Russians have to lose just move a few kilometers in Europe’s second largest country. 4 minutes of countless destroyed Russian vehicles (BMPs, Bukhankas, trucks etc). It is the road of death near Avdiivka.
The most telling part is that the… pic.twitter.com/jkTg8XVcwY
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) June 23, 2024
Update on the Yeysk Strike
Last week, I posted about a strike on the Russian airbase at Yeysk in Krasnodar Krai. I, like many others, assumed the target was the strike aircraft based there.
BACKGROUND: Putin’s War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles
As it turns out, the target was a facility used to train Shahed-136 drone operators and a storage facility for the drones.
⚡️The result of the attack on the air defense training center near 🇷🇺Yeisk, Krasnodar Territory, footage from the scene
Presumably, the facility was used to store and train Shahed-136 operators. The barracks and the warehouse were damaged pic.twitter.com/iOPKqPDXcY
— 🪖Military news (@front_ukrainian) June 23, 2024
As you can see, the barracks and storage building were pretty well thrashed.
The aftermath of Ukraine’s strike on the air defense training center near Yeysk air base in Russia is visible in new satellite imagery
This site is more than 130 kilometers from the front line in Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/dZrZX5wTws
— Brady Africk (@bradyafr) June 22, 2024
Artillery in Action
Kharkiv Oblast, a German-supplied PzH 2000 SPH in Ukrainian service destroys a Russian artillery position on Russian territory with accurate 155mm fire.
Recent changes in German policy allowed Ukrainian forces to use their PzH 2000s to hit Russian military targets in Russia. pic.twitter.com/bmXYbg6sEx
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) June 22, 2024
Ukrainian Tank Corps Graduation
My long suspicion has been that the stories on the old age and decrepitude of Ukrainian soldiers have been wildly overstated as part of a Russian information operation. Because if grandpa is kicking your first team’s ass, what does it say about you? This class photo of new armor officers in the Ukrainian Army reinforces my gut feeling because while the class is older than a new crop of US Army second lieutenants, it isn’t middle-aged-to-elderly like a lot of social media accounts claim.
📷 The Military Institute of Tank Troops celebrated the graduation of its young officers. During the ceremony, they received their diplomas, and made the solemn officer’s oath of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. #UkrainianArmy pic.twitter.com/yljrZsjbHH
— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) June 22, 2024
More on the “Turtle Tanks”
Last week, I took retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan to task for his favorable review of the Russian “turtle tanks.” This is a video of an evaluation of one of those captured tanks.
[ENG SUB] All you ever wanted to know about the Russian turtle tanks
No ammo, no reactive armor (casing empty), no visibility, etc.
The main function is to bring troops into position pic.twitter.com/wtzZV19Vaf
— PS01 (@PStyle0ne1) June 22, 2024
It isn’t a wunderwaffen. It is a tank stripped of its combat power and pressed into service as a battle taxi.
Nothing Except a Battle Lost…
...be half so melancholy as a battle won — Duke of Wellington
I’m not sure where this fits on the won-lost spectrum but it is ugly.
A Russian soldier films his evacuation and the result of his unit’s offensive: “F*ck, the whole windbreak is covered with our guys. Here, poor guy was torn to pieces. There’s a lot of f*cked up equipment.”
He describes the effective work of Ukrainian artillery and drones.… pic.twitter.com/eJQyS0aYwU
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 26, 2024
Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures
Close Encounter of the Worst Kind
This action takes in the Kharkiv area. As the clip starts, three Russian assault troops are moving down a trench toward the bottom of the screen. They have just passed a branch off the main trench to the left. From the trench layout, I think the Russian lines are to the left. At 0:01, you see a Ukrainian soldier emerge from the bypassed branch and engage the Russian team from the rear. A close-up of the engagement starts at 0:16.
🔞 The soldier of the Third Assault Brigade kills three orcs at point-blank range during a trench battle in the Kharkiv region. Graphic content warning. pic.twitter.com/LnU71V5f65
— ✙ Albina Fella ✙ 🇺🇦🇬🇧🇫🇷🇩🇪🇵🇱🇺🇸🇨🇦🇦🇺 (@albafella1) June 23, 2024
Drone Air-to-Air Combat
In the first video, the Ukrainian drone wins. In the second video, a Russian air defense drone employs a detachable net to capture a Ukrainian drone.
More air to air combat https://t.co/3JKDJCsHvc pic.twitter.com/FOWejvFIAC
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) June 22, 2024
More air to air combat.
This one hits close to home, because they are Liberty Ukraine Drones supplied by @TonyaLevchuk
It shows that drones are a consumable in constant need of resupply. https://t.co/7lrFBxDdGL pic.twitter.com/koBrpQydiV
— Andrew Perpetua (@AndrewPerpetua) June 22, 2024
This engagement has something of a Neanderthal air to it. A Ukrainian Mavic drone with a stick, yes, a stick, dangling beneath it knocks down a Russian Mavic drone.
Ukrainian Mavic drone downs Russian Mavic using a stick. https://t.co/JLcbN89GMF pic.twitter.com/Nc58muFWRX
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 24, 2024
Strike on Drone Ground Crew
This video is from a Ukrainian drone unit that has searched for and located a Russian drone ground station in a house. The full video is over 14 minutes. This clip has English subtitles.
Ukrainian drone operators of the “Birds of Magyar” unit found the base of Russian FPV drone operators, investigated the house with FPV drone from the inside and destroyed it.
Full: https://t.co/zlXGyul7RR pic.twitter.com/X5mUqbxwbq
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 22, 2024
This video is the same kind of target but in the Kharkiv area of operations.
Destruction of a Russian UAV operator control point in the Kharkiv direction. pic.twitter.com/R1mnnSyJ0z
— NOELREPORTS 🇪🇺 🇺🇦 (@NOELreports) June 25, 2024
Bradley vs. FPV Drone
This is a Bradley IFV defending itself from a drone. The shells fired by the Bradley probably cost more than the drone, but that was better than losing the Bradley.
Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA IFV shots down a Russian FPV drone with its M242 Bushmaster 25mm auto-cannon. pic.twitter.com/ZKtGEmal5R
— Status-6 (Military & Conflict News) (@Archer83Able) June 26, 2024
Unclear on the Concept
When a lane is marked through a minefield, a driver has every reason to assume it is cleared. In the Russian Army, that is not always a smart move. The video starts with a BMP variant and cope cage approaching dead tank and Chinese-made Desertcross ATV. aka HummXi, presumably the victims of antitank mines. To the right is another HummXi and a team of Russian soldiers. A lane is marked with tape between the destroyed tank and HummXi. At 0:08 a Russian soldier motions the BMP into the marked lane. At 0:15, the BMP crew discovers whatever the hand movements and marked lane mean, they don’t mean it is free of mines.
ruSSian commander – do you see this marked passage?
BMP driver – Yes.
commander – this is the safe road in the minefield.
driver – OK ser.Kupyansk direction. pic.twitter.com/ZMWrdlRP24
— 𝔗𝔥𝔢 𝔇𝔢𝔞𝔡 𝔇𝔦𝔰𝔱𝔯𝔦𝔠𝔱 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇺🇲🇬🇷 (@TheDeadDistrict) June 25, 2024
Paying Attention
I’ve posted many times on the stupid economics of using very expensive missiles to destroy very cheap drones. Once I said that every squad needed a good birddog and a guy with a 12-gauge to detect and engage FPV drones. As it turns out, I wasn’t alone in thinking that. Read the whole thread.
Latest: Western gun makers are exploring the potential of small arms to counter small drones, turning cheap and widely available weapons into last-resort defenses against an emerging threat. The shift is playing out on the battlefields of eastern #Ukraine.https://t.co/yAXQffICQL
— Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo (@elisabethmalom1) June 24, 2024
“The use of different types of guns in this capacity in Ukraine has accelerated the demand we get for our shotguns to be sold in a counter-drone configuration – we’ve received a lot of request for information for this from NATO countries,” Mauro Della Costanza, head of sales at Benelli’s defense division, told Defense News at the Eurosatory trade show here.
The company supplies shotguns combined with special drone ammunition, which are already in use with the French and Italian armed forces. Dubbed the ALDA round, short for anti-light drone ammunition, this type of projectile is dedicated to shooting down moving targets such as small drones, weighing less than 25 kilograms, at distances between 80 and 120 meters.
If You Shoot at the King
Russian OSA air defense system tries to shot down reconnaissance drone, then FPV hits OSA. https://t.co/4WjAlToiJg pic.twitter.com/9w6vik1zff
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 21, 2024
Last week, I posted video of a Russian Russian fighter firing an air-to-air missile at a drone and a Strela-10 (NATO terminology: SA-13 “Gopher”) firing at reconnaissance drones and missing. Is it bad equipment, poor training, bad luck, or something we don’t know about?
RELATED: Putin’s War, Week 121. Putin Threatens, Zelensky Negotiates, and the White House Sends Lots of Missiles – RedState
Why Not to Ride on an IFV
Russian infantry on a BMP targeted by an FPV.
⚡🇺🇦💪💥Russian BMP-2 destroyed. Half a dozen orcs became a bonus🥓 pic.twitter.com/3luYLlviiA
— 🇺🇦 UkraineNewsLive🇺🇦 (@UkraineNewsLive) June 25, 2024
Northern Front
Kharkiv
Lyptsy-Vovchansk
Ukraine is making progress in this area via small-scale counterattacks.
A Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group conducted a cross-border assault in the Zolochiv direction (northwest of Kharkiv City) on the evening of June 26, but Russian forces have not launched offensive operations in the area. (3/9) pic.twitter.com/PR8pFmB4eN
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) June 28, 2024
Forbes reports that the Russians are retreating from Vovchansk, but this story has no geolocated confirmation. It meshes with reports from the last two weeks of the Russian line in Vovchansk disintegrating.
Russian 83rd Airborne Brigade has retreated from Vovchansk after a costly three-week deployment, – Forbes
There are too many Russian casualties, they can’t fight, there are too many soldiers who refuses to fight along with the survivors of an entire battalion have been trapped… pic.twitter.com/k8yp7TAZBy
— TOGA (@TOGAjano21) June 28, 2024
Donbas
The front line remained stable despite a surge in the number of Russian ground attacks in this area.
Russian forces continued ground attacks along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on June 26, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. (4/9) pic.twitter.com/4yNlmFSPAi
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) June 28, 2024
Chasiv Yar
Russian attacks continue, but the front line remains stable.
Russian forces continued offensive operations near Chasiv Yar on June 27, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline in this area. (5/9) pic.twitter.com/7EAnq4FoJq
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) June 28, 2024
Avdiivka
The Russian Army continues to make small gains in this area.
Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka amid continued Russian offensive operations in the area on June 27. (6/9) pic.twitter.com/XW6UAuWZds
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) June 28, 2024
Attacks in Southern Donetsk Broken Up
In the Pokrovsky direction there are the largest number of military clashes; the aggressor is trying to attack near Volchansk
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
🔹In the Pokrovsky and Toretsky directions, the enemy continues to increase the pace of… pic.twitter.com/zPCNX7IHCi
— Lew Anno Suport#Israel #Ukraine 24/2-22 (@anno1540) June 22, 2024
Burning Russian AFV column on the Krasnohorivka front.https://t.co/pYqzSYLdSw pic.twitter.com/OsJDDmT7Tr
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 26, 2024
Southern Front
Zaporizhzhia
Robotyne-Verbove- Novoprokopivka
Russian attacks continue but the line is stable.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast near Robotyne and Mala Tokmachka (northeast of Robotyne) and northeast of Verbove (east of Robotyne) on June 26 and 27, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. (7/9) pic.twitter.com/HNlmvhSN2K
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) June 28, 2024
Kherson
Russian forces continue to attack this area, but the front lines have not changed.
Russian forces continued ground attacks in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky and the Antonivsky roadway bridge north of Oleshky on June 26 and 27, but there were no confirmed changes to the frontline. (8/9) pic.twitter.com/eO5SJEKAvj
— Critical Threats (@criticalthreats) June 28, 2024
Rear Areas
Russia
Equipment and Ammunition Dump, Kursk Oblast
This dump was probably located less than 20 kilometers from the Ukrainian border for it to comply with White House rules on striking targets in Russia.
Ukrainian strike on a storage of equipment and ammunition of the Russian army in Kursk region of Russia
— WarFrontline (@WarFrontline) June 23, 2024
Rostov-Mariupol Railway
The ATESH partisan group claimed responsibility for destroying a relay cabinet on the Rostov-to-Mairupol railway. This kind of attack isn’t sexy, but it shuts down an entire segment of the line until the destroyed gear is replaced.
Ukrainian strike on a storage of equipment and ammunition of the Russian army in Kursk region of Russia
— WarFrontline (@WarFrontline) June 23, 2024
Belgorod Rail Yards
‼️Belgorod at night
The night was unsettling in the Russian city of Belgorod. Explosions are reported a fire near the train station. Russians say they intercepted all the missiles… pic.twitter.com/qxaRQX9yLn
— PS01 (@PStyle0ne1) March 16, 2023
Ammunition Depot, Olkhovatka, Voronezh Oblast
Fire and explosions at the Russian ammunition depot in Olkhovatka, Voronezh Oblast, were captured in a @planet satellite image taken today. At least two epicenters can be seen, which is consistent with reports about two drones. Location: 50.289960, 39.257510 @GeoConfirmed https://t.co/jnDUzspfnq pic.twitter.com/J8CbXBkUR4
— Mark Krutov (@kromark) June 25, 2024
Chemical Products Plant, Redkino, Tver Oblast
Last night, long-rage OWUAV’s attacked the “Redkin Research Plant” in #Redkino, Tver Oblast, Russia, which manufactures chemical products for the aviation and space industries. Explosions were heard at the facility at 0215, 0230, 0240 and 0430 local time.
Geolocation: 56.659094,… pic.twitter.com/1sokGxFExi
— OSINT (Uri Kikaski) 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇬🇧 🇺🇦 🇮🇱 (@UKikaski) June 27, 2024
What’s Next
It is pretty clear that Ukraine is focused on reducing the Russian buffer zone in Kharkiv. That, I think, happens sooner rather than later. All indications are that the units there are either heavily salted with former deserters and other unreliables or they are burned-out shells of units that were mauled in other areas of operation. As I noted, Forbes is reporting the beginning of a collapse of Russian forces in Vovchansk. If that happens, it will be very difficult to isolate the contagion.
The long game Ukraine is playing against Ukraine is coming to a climax. By employing USV capable of delivering anti-ship mines, seaborne resupply of the Russian Army in Crimea will be significantly reduced. Then, all Crimea military forces and civilian population will be dependent upon one railway line across the Kerch Strait Bridge.
By shaking up his command structure, I think Zelensky is getting rid of some of the Soviet influence in his military. It is easy to see another crop of officers rising free of Ukraine’s Soviet heritage and more in tune with the “follow me” ethos of combat leaders in the West.
All said, I think Ukraine came through a very difficult winter in much better shape than one might have anticipate,d and it has put in place systems to support an expansion of its military.
I still think the Ukrainian Army can’t afford to take a summer off. It will execute an offensive operation somewhere. That may be in the Kharkiv area, but the Russians look like they are trying to forestall that possibility by collapsing. The most likely area, in my view, is in western Zaporizhzhia with the objective of severing rail traffic between Crimea and Donbas. If that is successful, Crimea is not defensible and Putin will have some hard decisions to make.