Slowing down No. 1 seed Purdue and star center Zach Edey hasn’t come easy for many teams this season. Riding the All-American center’s destructive double-double path to their first Final Four since 1980, the Boilermakers overcame last season’s embarrassing exit to No. 16 seed Fairleigh Dickinson. Awaiting Purdue in the national semifinals is No. 11 seed N.C. State. Facing elimination each game since the start of the ACC tournament, the Wolfpack turned away nine consecutive opponents during a surreal March run. Purdue is hoping to avoid losing to a double-digit seed for the fourth consecutive NCAA Tournament as a nearly double-digit favorite.
The 7-foot-4 Edey remains college basketball’s most unique weapon. Shooting 65.6 percent from the field and attempting 13.5 free throws per game during March Madness, the reigning National Player of the Year is dominating the NCAA Tournament (30 points, 16.3 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.8 blocks per game).
Capable perimeter shooting surrounds Edey when he’s forced to give up the ball. The Boilermakers are second in the nation in 3-point percentage (40.6 percent). After last season’s first-round exit, a more resilient Purdue supporting cast showed it can withstand a cold-shooting game.
In a physical Elite Eight win over Tennessee, Purdue shot 3-for-15 from distance but advanced thanks to its defense and a monster 40-point, 16-rebound effort from Edey.
NC State’s season was saved by a defensive turnaround. Six consecutive Wolfpack opponents shot under 40 percent from the field – including a season-low 32.2 percent shooting from Duke in NC State’s Elite Eight victory.
Over a few weeks, the Wolfpack went from finishing 10th in the ACC to picking off elite teams like North Carolina, Duke (twice) and Marquette during their winning streak. A new March Madness folk hero emerged in burly senior center DJ Burns Jr. The nimble-footed lefty creates a fascinating head-to-head interior matchup with Edey.
Slowing down Edey tops the NC State gameplan. But guard play will dictate if the Wolfpack have a real chance against another powerhouse. Turnovers, and difficulty working the ball inside to Edey, can plague Purdue’s perimeter group of Braden Smith, Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer if proper defensive pressure is applied. DJ Horne, Casey Morsell and Jayden Taylor form a capable NCState guard group that is 88th nationally in steal percentage and isn’t afraid to play with physicality.
What: Final Four
Tipoff time: 6:09 p.m. ET Saturday
TV: TBS
Location: Glendale, Ariz.
Purdue vs. NC State odds
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Expert picks
Purdue vs. NC State projected score
Our “numbers guy,” Austin Mock, uses advanced statistical models and simulations to project the outcome of each game in the tournament. Based on 1 million simulations of the men’s 2024 NCAA Tournament, here are Austin’s projections for the point spread and total:
Projected point spread: Purdue by 9 points
Projected total points: 147.5
Projected final score: Purdue 79, NC State 68.5
Players to watch
Purdue
- Zach Edey, senior center, Big Ten Player of the Year, first-team All-Big Ten, All-Big Ten defensive team
- Braden Smith, sophomore guard, first-team All-Big Ten
NC State
- DJ Horne, senior guard, third-team All-ACC
- DJ Burns Jr., senior PF/C, ACC Tournament MVP
More NCAA men’s basketball tournament coverage
(Photo of Zach Edey: Mike Mulholland / Getty Images)
