China seems determined to establish a new Cold War in the Pacific. In their latest provocation, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command is pushing both sea and air patrols near the contested territory in the South China Sea known as the Scarborough Shoal.
The Philippines claim the Shoal as being within their Exclusive Economic Zone, but China has made a territorial claim to the Shoal, which they call “Huangyan Dao.”
Chinese air and naval forces staged “combat readiness patrols” around Scarborough Shoal last Sunday, marking Beijing’s final major show of strength against Manila over the disputed South China Sea maritime feature in 2024.
According to the Chinese Ministry of National Defense, the snap People’s Liberation Army Southern Theater Command drills were conducted to “resolutely safeguard China’s national sovereignty and security, and maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea.” Media released by the Chinese military show various patrol aircraft, fighter jets and H-6 bombers flying over Scarborough. They were also joined by a naval task force consisting of a replenishment vessel, a 052D-class destroyer and a 055-class destroyer.
“Since December, 2024, the PLA Southern Theater Command has organized its naval and air force troops to continuously strengthen maritime and airspace patrols around China’s territorial waters of Huangyan Dao, and further strengthen the control over relevant waters and airspace,” stated a Ministry of Defense release.
This isn’t the first time China and the Philippines have butted heads over this territory, which China now claims as their territory.
2023 and 2024 saw some of the most intensive encounters between the two countries over the shoal, some of which included using water cannons and ramming maneuvers by Chinese forces.
China is making no effort to keep its activities quiet; on December 29, they released a video of air and sea operations, and in several shots, you can see the distinctive outline of the Scarborough Shoal below.
PLA Southern Theater Command released footage of China’s combat readiness patrols near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea on Dec. 29. pic.twitter.com/CLb6Q2blsU
— Duan Dang (@duandang) December 30, 2024
This is some serious Cold War-level stuff.
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It’s important to note that the United States has a mutual defense treaty with the Philippines, meaning that the U.S. is obligated to provide aid and military support to the Philippines in the event of any aggression, by China or any other country.
The guidelines reaffirm that an armed attack in the Pacific, including anywhere in the South China Sea, on either of their public vessels, aircraft, or armed forces – which includes their Coast Guards – would invoke mutual defense commitments under Articles IV and V of the 1951 U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.
Could ramming be considered an “armed attack?”
China has become increasingly bellicose in recent months, and the current United States leadership, being weak and ineffective – and visibly so – is only encouraging the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to become increasingly aggressive. Chairman Xi is talking up a reunification of China with Taiwan, and that is a reunification that could only come through force. Areas like the Shoal are good locations for logistics bases and, with some engineering and artificial island building, airstrips, allowing the CCP to project power further into the Pacific.
On January 20th, the United States’ weak and ineffective leadership will be gone. An entirely different leadership will be taking over, particularly where military matters and foreign policy are concerned. It’s going to be roundly interesting to see what, if any, changes China makes in their activities in the West Pacific – and how they react to a second Trump administration. But China is a land and a culture of great momentum rather than great ideas. They play the long game, knowing that American leaders come and go, and they have patience.
We do live in interesting times.
