Progress and progression: Newcastle close in on dreamland

At times this season, Newcastle United have fretted and flailed and fumed, usually at themselves and often within the space of a single 90 minutes, but as questions ferment around the club’s direction of travel, here at least is one source of constancy. The Carabao Cup is not just an end in itself, another chance to end the club’s interminable wait for a trophy, it has become a shortcut, the fastest route to dreamland.

By progressing, Newcastle can point to progress; it is as simple and stark as that.

It is difficult to escape the importance of this match, this result, this meaning, this dream, the Italian music which blared out of the dressing-room, whether for Eddie Howe, his players or the club’s supporters. In the Premier League, they are 12th and riddled with unpredictability, but in a competition they have never won and only recently learnt to love, Newcastle are a case study in consistency, getting beyond their third consecutive quarter-final and into their second semi in three years.

There was no disguising it, no shield, no protection, no rest. Howe went strong, picking the same team which had beaten Leicester City 4-0 on Saturday (Brentford made five changes). Newcastle went strong, righting the wrong of a vapid 4-2 defeat at the Gtech Community Stadium earlier this month. When they go strong, formidable and together, that strength takes some repelling, a reminder which came with hard edges because they needed it more than wanted it.

Newcastle’s post takeover journey is no longer quite what it was. Eighteen months ago, when the threat of relegation was in the rearview mirror and disappearing, when one trip to Wembley was followed up by fourth in the table and the Champions League, when they spent big and played hard, the scale of their audacity felt limitless. Final destination: the very top and who was going to stop them?

As it turns out, Newcastle’s pathway has been strewn with brambles and 2024 has been a faith-shaker, one where the company credit card was maxed out, no players arrived to bolster the first-XI and where key personnel have left the club. The overall effect has been destabilising and if Howe cannot appease his dressing-room with new signings – or any other tangible evidence of ambition – the big picture threatens to become opaque.

Howe said on Tuesday that there has not been “one moment when we’ve gone ‘well, we can’t do this’ or ‘we can’t achieve that’. Players will soon pick up if you’re not ambitious or you think something’s not possible and I always like to think the impossible is possible.” But he also admitted that expectations should be “moulded around our reality and our reality has been obviously very different in the last two transfer windows.” Are those things truly compatible?

Thanks heavens, then, for the small picture. Praise be for the sumptuous goal Sandro Tonali drove home in the ninth minute from well outside the area, for his one-man mission to make up for lost time. If his first was not quite a tempo-setter, the game settling into stop-start edginess, then his second, scored shortly before half-time, smoothed away tension. There was a tap-in third for Fabian Schar in the 69th minute and then a late consolation for Bryan Mbeumo.

Match by match, as a fixed point deep in Newcastle’s midfield, Tonali is demonstrating mettle and pedigree.

“He has an unbelievable strike from distance,” Howe said of the Italian. “He hits the ball cleaner than anyone I’ve seen. He’s looked a lot more comfortable deeper on the pitch. It’s brilliant to see from my perspective. He’s an explosive player and he’s really helped us on transitions, putting out a lot of fires with his pace. He’s a big signing and you want your big signings to do well. Everyone is seeing what a good player he is.”

Tonali “has an unbelievable strike from distance,” says Howe (Michael Regan/Getty Images)

Given his long absence for betting offences and desire to atone, Tonali may be a different case, but for Newcastle’s other good players – Bruno Guimaraes, Alexander Isak or Anthony Gordon – the League Cup may offer the best bet for legacy. At some point, one or more will have to go, either to free up resources or because their own trajectories have outpaced their club’s. Winning the Premier League and Champions League still look distant. This does not.

That message is hugely valuable to Howe, even if he does not spell it out so overtly. It keeps Newcastle’s season alive and thriving at least until the beginning of February, when they play the second leg of their semi-final. By then, the FA Cup will be in full swing, where they start with a decent home draw against Bromley and if they can use this as fuel then perhaps they can start 2025 with some momentum.

“It’s a really good thing for us currently because it’s on the horizon and it keeps a positive feel,” Howe said. “It means there’s something to look forward to. We know we need to do work in the Premier League to get our position back to where we want it to be, but when you look at us play at our our best, there’s no reason why we can’t improve and then be really competitive in the semi-final.”

To repeat: progression equals progress, or “progress of sorts,” as Dan Burn, the centre-half put it. They are two games away from a return to Wembley and three from nirvana; win that and the only question of any relevance would be “whose round is it?” Competing and improving were the promises sold to players as the story of the takeover began; amid difficulty and uncertainty, winning a first domestic trophy for 70 years would be like skipping to the final page.

Newcastle’s strength will be needed. There will be no bye in the last four, where they will face either Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United. And in the first leg of the semi-final, they must do without Schar and Guimaraes, who both picked up yellow cards which earn them one-game suspensions. This is where Howe’s words about the impossible kick in, or a version of them which Tonali uttered afterwards. “Everything is possible with this team,” he said. In this competition, anyway.

(Top photo: Richard Sellers/Getty Images)