Inside: Sorting NFL combine winners and losers into categories that matter, plus unpacking the Deebo Samuel trade and how the Raiders and Giants respond to Matthew Stafford’s extension.
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Post-combine risers and fallers
Pictured above is Missouri’s Armand Membou, a 6-foot-3, 332-pound offensive lineman whom college football writers had projected to land in Chicago at No. 10, where he’d protect quarterback Caleb Williams.
But after an incredible combine, Membou might go earlier. He hit a top speed of 20.28 miles per hour during his 40-yard dash, where he set the best mark among all tackles (4.91 seconds) while letting out a primal scream.
No. 20 on the Consensus Big Board pre-combine (but No. 8 on Dane Brugler’s list), Membou has a mix of size, vertical leap and speed that rivals All-Pros Tristan Wirfs and Trent Williams:
After last week’s review of which combine metrics matter per Tej Seth’s analysis, let’s talk about the prospects who shone in the most important areas:
For quarterbacks, the broad jump has mattered most. Three stood out:
📈 Missouri QB Brady Cook. No quarterback improved their stock more than the previously projected Day 3 pick/UDFA, who struggled with accuracy in college. His lower-body explosiveness was on display with a broad jump mark (128 inches) that rivaled Anthony Richardson’s record (129 inches).
📈 Louisville QB Tyler Shough showed well and could be an early-round pick. He might fall due to narratives like “too old” (turns 26 in the fall) and “injury history” (three major injuries in seven college seasons), but probably shouldn’t, given his impressive touch and strong metrics.
📉 Ohio State QB Will Howard led his team to a national championship, but don’t ask him to broad jump (worst mark among quarterbacks) or hit open receivers in a practice setting. His Saturday throwing session went poorly, to put it nicely:
For receivers, the 40-yard dash impacts draft position but does not correlate to future production, while youthfulness is more predictive. That means teams overvalue the 40-yard dash but underrate age. Knowing that:
📈 Texas WR Matthew Golden. After Xavier Worthy’s record-setting 2024, a Longhorn again led receivers in the 40-yard dash. Golden’s 4.29-second dash likely cemented his first-round status. Perhaps more importantly, Golden is also one of this draft’s youngest receiving prospects.
📉 Oregon WR Tez Johnson‘s NFL future is in doubt after the 5-foot-9 receiver was lighter than expected (154 pounds) and not all that fast. The 22 year-old ran a 4.51 40-yard dash, one of the slower times at his position.
Fast tight ends tend to thrive, though, which is good news for two of the faster prospects:
📈 Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr., an Isaiah Likely type who set FBS records for receiving yards (1,555) and receptions (117) at his position. The Dolphins or Broncos could be a fit on Day 2.
📈 LSU TE Mason Taylor didn’t run a 40, but that won’t stop him from being this class’ TE3 on most consensus boards. The son of former Dolphins great DE Jason Taylor, Mason looked smooth with the ball while running the gauntlet well.
The most surprisingly important metric is the 40-yard dash for offensive lineman (adding to the Membou buzz above). Arm size and three-cone time matter too. You should know:
📉 Alabama OL Tyler Booker. His profile screams franchise left tackle — 6-5, 321 pounds with 34 1/2-inch arms — but is questionable after he was the second-slowest lineman in both the 40 (5.38 seconds, 25th percentile) and three-cone (7.96 seconds, 28th percentile). I’ve seen him mocked to the Chargers and Texans, but the first round now feels like a stretch.
📉 LSU OL Will Campbell, a consensus All-American who saw his arm length (32 and 5/8 inches) fall a few inches short of what most NFL teams look for at his position. (Still, I don’t know what to make of anybody’s measurements after Jalen Milroe’s hand size grew from 8.75 inches to 9.38 in the month between the Senior Bowl and the combine.)
On the defensive side:
📈 South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori confirmed his first-round bona fides by measuring 6-3, 220 while leading the combine in broad jump (11 feet, 6 inches) and vertical (43 inches) and running a 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds. Last season, the high-energy safety led his team in tackles and didn’t allow a touchdown in coverage. The Bills are a good fit.
📉 Michigan DT Mason Graham had been a consensus top-five pick, but might trickle down mock draft boards after measuring 20-plus pounds lighter than expected and having 32-inch arms (26th percentile for his position). Still, Graham is an instant starter for whom the Jets could come calling at No. 7.
📈 Arkansas edge Landon Jackson. A consensus top-50 prospect prior to the combine, he led his position in the vertical and finished second in the broad jump. Both marks impressed, given his 6-6, 264-pound frame. He’s now in first-round consideration.
Now the inevitable question: Do combine risers and fallers even matter?
A simple way to test this is to look back at big names in these categories over the past two years (via our 2023 winners/losers and 2024 risers/fallers):
Clearly, the combine … might not matter, maybe?
It’s a mixed bag, but there are always significant names in both categories — meaning a bad combine could still lead to a good career, or vice versa.
Before we get to the Stafford news, Dianna has more on the 49ers’ post-Deebo plans.
What Dianna’s Hearing: The Deebo effect
Deebo Samuel’s trade demand was granted on Saturday, as the former All-Pro receiver is Jayden Daniels’ newest weapon in Washington. Samuel wanted to be traded to either the Commanders, Broncos or Texans, though the latter two never made an offer for him.
Washington is taking on the remainder of Samuel’s contract, paying his full $17.55 million salary for the 2025 season. That means he’s set to make more than Terry McLaurin, who’s getting $15.5 million in the final year of a deal signed in the summer of 2022 — expect that to change.
As for the 49ers, they might not be done dealing. League sources tell me multiple teams have called about acquiring Brandon Aiyuk as San Francisco reworks their roster ahead of Brock Purdy’s coming mega-extension.
My colleague Ben Standig explains why the Commanders made this deal.
Back to you, Jacob.
Stafford Extension: First QB domino falls …
The talk of the combine was that the Raiders and Giants were pushing for Stafford. League sources confirmed this to The Athletic reporters, saying the teams offered two-year deals with between $90 million and $100 million guaranteed.
No matter, as the 37-year-old was unwilling to uproot his family for more money. Just as we hit send on Friday’s newsletter, the Rams announced Stafford will remain in Los Angeles after a contract restructure, which is still being finalized and will be adjusted again next year, per Sean McVay.
Stafford’s return is good news for a young team that sits No. 7 in our early 2025 Power Rankings and tested the Eagles during the playoffs. Bad news for everyone else, one way or the other.
What do QB-needy teams do now? Let’s check in with beat reporters after New York and Las Vegas whiffed:
Giants: I asked Charlotte Carroll if GM Joe Schoen is feeling win-now pressure after co-owner John Mara expressed a lack of patience. She said Schoen isn’t admitting anything, but she pointed to his combine message: “We’re going to look for the best player available that can help us win games in ‘25.”
Plan B might be Aaron Rodgers, which could be a big mistake. Also, Dan Duggan wrote, “There hasn’t been much buzz connecting the Giants to Sam Darnold,” while Kirk Cousins, Russell Wilson and Justin Fields are potential adds.
They could also trade up for No. 1, as the Titans are reportedly open for business. The Giants currently hold No. 3 and are expected to target a quarterback, which Schoen is yet to do in three seasons at the helm. Everything suggests a big swing.
Raiders: Minority owner Tom Brady ran into Stafford in Montana. They skied together. It caused chaos at an Indianapolis Starbucks, and that was all. Now, Las Vegas now shifts to considering a Pete Carroll reunion with Wilson or adding Darnold, both available via free agency.
But neither signing seems likely, since Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed noted Brady and Raiders GM John Spytek “prioritized Stafford because they are not super high on Darnold or the other potential free agents.”
As for the draft, The Athletic reported the Raiders’ brass left Indianapolis interested in [Alabama QB Jalen] Milroe and [Texas QB Quinn] Ewers after going over X’s and O’s and film. Regardless, the expectation is winning, now.
Many others are searching for quarterbacks, including the Browns, Titans, Jets, Steelers and Colts. Their solutions might not come via this draft, as Jeff Howe explains league evaluators left Indy unimpressed with this rookie QB class.
“Plus, there’s a hidden danger in whiffing on a first-round QB in April — it also may take teams out of the running from a more highly coveted class in 2026,” wrote Jeff. That’s when Arch Manning, nephew of Peyton and Eli, is eligible. He’s the real deal.
Last week’s most-clicked: Mike Sando explains how the NFL’s youth coaching movement has transformed the league, for both good and bad.
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(Photo: Stacy Revere / Getty Images)
