The election momentum lately appears to be moving back in the direction of former President Donald Trump.
I wrote last week about the swing state polling from Insider Advantage/Trafalgar that had Trump up in every swing state except Georgia, where it was tied. On top of that was surprising polling from Ipsos, which tends to undercount Trump support and now has him up by 1 percent in the battleground states.
Trump has also jumped four points in a new Yahoo/YouGov poll. The poll is now tied on the national vote. In 2020, it had Joe Biden up by 10 points. In 2016, Economist/YouGov had Hillary Clinton up 4 points right before the election and, of course, she lost. Added to the battleground state polling that has to look pretty good for Trump right about now.
READ MORE:
New Swing State Polling Data and Important Data Point to Big Trouble for Harris
Momentum Swing: Trump Jumps Four Points in Yahoo News/YouGov Poll Since Vance-Walz Debate
But there’s more. First, CNN’s data nerd, Harry Enten had a “bad sign” for Kamala Harris when you look at the “right track, wrong track” numbers.
WATCH: CNN data guru Harry Enten reports “bad sign for Kamala Harris campaign,” as “it would be historically unprecedented” for Harris to win with so few Americans believing the country is on the “right track” pic.twitter.com/MEhRcDvflX
— TV News Now (@TVNewsNow) October 5, 2024
He said it would be “historically unprecedented” for Harris to win with such low right track numbers, at 28 percent thinking we were on the “right track.” He said the average when the incumbent party loses is 25 percent, when they win it’s 42 percent.
“The 28 percent looks a lot more like the 25 percent, it doesn’t look anything like this 42 percent. This to me is a bad sign for Kamala Harris’ campaign,” Enten said. “It looks a lot more like a loser than a winner when it comes to the country being on the right track.”
Enten also said that if the polls were off as they were in 2020 with a similar underestimate of Trump, that would give the election to Trump with 312 electoral votes and he would sweep the three Rust Belt swing states.
CNN’s Harry Enten illustrates what the Electoral College could look like ‘If the polls are off’ like they were in 2020 and 2016:
Jessica Dean: “What if the polls are off?”
Harry Enten: “Back in 2020 [and 2016], the polls underestimated Donald Trump.
If that happens again: Donald… pic.twitter.com/kRym5p9hC2— Eric Abbenante (@EricAbbenante) October 7, 2024
On top of those notes from Enten, now it looks like Polymarket is jumping aboard the momentum train.
Trump now has his largest-ever lead over Harris in their betting forecasts (so far).
Trump’s lead is up to 8.6% in the odds today.
He’s nearing his biggest lead since Kamala Harris entered the race. pic.twitter.com/PpJtjyxnZ0
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 7, 2024
Polymarket had her up by 4 percentage points two weeks ago.
In the critical state of Pennsylvania, the odds he wins are ahead by 12 percent.
🚨 BREAKING: Trump’s lead over Kamala Harris just hit an all-time high in Pennsylvania.
Odds he wins are ahead by 12%. pic.twitter.com/Nn3G5dmTng
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) October 7, 2024
So that’s good news. The momentum appears to be good, but only we can make it happen. Grab any person you know will vote correctly and get them out if you can.
