MINNEAPOLIS — For the second straight year, Pablo López has bounced back from a first-half slump to lock into a dominant, rotation-leading roll for the Minnesota Twins in the second half.
Last year, in his first Twins season, López carried a 4.41 ERA into late June. Then he posted a 2.94 ERA with 114 strikeouts in 98 innings over his final 16 starts before raising his game even higher in winning playoff starts against the Toronto Blue Jays and Houston Astros.
This year, López carried a 5.63 ERA into late June. And after a great outing Friday in which he shut out the Blue Jays for 7 2/3 innings to snap the Twins’ four-game losing streak, he has a 2.38 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 75 2/3 innings over his last 12 starts. Throwing harder than ever, López has logged 20 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings.
“I was highly motivated,” López said of the playoff rematch. “Every game has its challenges. Every game has its reasons to find that competitive edge and competitive fire. You use them to be more focused and more locked in. Making sure every pitch had a purpose.”
Pablo López extends his scoreless innings streak to 20.2 as the @Twins blank the Jays. pic.twitter.com/zwCmbuWIco
— MLB (@MLB) August 31, 2024
Facing a Blue Jays lineup that doesn’t strike out much, López altered his usual pitch mix to throw nearly 60 percent fastballs in search of quick outs and weak contact. He got both, pitching into the eighth inning for just the second time this season and inducing a career-high 16 groundballs.
“We knew going into the game there are some guys who refuse to strike out a lot,” López said. “But if you make good, quality pitches you might have an opportunity to finish the at-bat quickly. It just needs to be quality. (Catcher Ryan) Jeffers had a great reading of the game. Calling pitches, where he set up, giving me visuals with every pitch. We were in a good rhythm.”
There’s still lots of work to be done if López hopes to replicate his Cy Young Award votes and playoff success from 2023, but the pattern is very similar: Midseason struggles that raise questions about his status as a No. 1 starter and assurances from López and the Twins’ coaching staff that he’s making adjustments and will be just fine, followed by a second-half roll proving it.
“He looks like himself again,” Jeffers said. “He’s able to move his fastball around, use both fastballs, use all of the off-speed pitches in any count. He struggled at the beginning of the year to find what he did well and what he had success with. I think he’s really worked hard and made the changes he needs to make to be back to being our dude.”
And also like last season, raw ERA likely understates how well López has pitched overall. His average-ish 4.05 ERA paints him more as a solid No. 3 starter, ranking No. 36 among American League starters with at least 100 innings. But his 3.37 xFIP and 3.50 xERA are No. 7 and No. 9, respectively, showing López as a No. 1 starter based on his underlying metrics.
It was a similar story in 2023, when his 3.66 ERA ranked 19th in the AL, while his 3.28 xFIP ranked fourth and his 3.00 xERA led the entire league.
“Baseball has a lot of things that we can’t control once we release the ball,” López said. “Once the ball leaves our hand, tons of things can happen that lead to negative outcomes.”
#MNTwins winning percentage in Pablo López starts:
This season — .593
Last season — .594They’ve played at a 96-win pace with López on the mound in both seasons.
— Aaron Gleeman (@AaronGleeman) August 31, 2024
Last year, López finished August with a 3.66 ERA and went 4-1 with a 2.79 ERA in September and October. This season, López finished August with a 4.05 ERA and the Twins will hope for another rotation-carrying stretch run that leaves little doubt about his No. 1 starter status.
“I’ve kept with my routine, finding new things to make sure that rhythm is as repeatable as possible,” López said. “Making sure that when I’m about to execute that pitch, I have the visual of what I want this pitch to do, where I want it to go. With that same aggression with every single pitch. We create tools, like mental cues, to bring us back to that good spot.”
López has again worked his way back to that good spot, pitching his best in the second half and stepping up for a team that is counting on him as much or more than anyone else to help carry it back to the playoffs.
“Pablo is ready for everything to come,” manager Rocco Baldelli said. “He looks just the way he would want to look right now and just the way I would want him to look. I think everyone is very, very pleased to watch him go out there and be in control of everything.”
(Photo: Bruce Kluckhohn / USA Today)
