Last Sunday, while accepting the best-actor equivalent award at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards, Timothée Chalamet dropped a sports reference right into the middle of the gilded Hollywood room.
“I’m really in pursuit of greatness,” Chalamet said in his acceptance speech for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role. “I’m as inspired by Daniel Day-Lewis, Marlon Brando and Viola Davis as I am by Michael Jordan and Michael Phelps, and I want to be up there.”
Not a total surprise coming from the College GameDay guest of the year!
Are the Academy Awards technically sports? Not even adjacently. But, as Chalamet’s speech evidenced, sports and pop culture are eternally locked in the epic “Predator” handshake, where the intertwined arms are grasping the public’s love, attention and money.
And we wouldn’t be The Athletic if we weren’t trying to gamify every moment we possibly can. So, of course, we’re gamifying the Oscars: turning Sunday night’s premier Hollywood awards show into our own sporting event, with the help of sportsbook odds.
Most Americans aren’t in a state or territory where they can bet on the Oscars. BetMGM told The Athletic that the sportsbook is offering Oscars odds only in Massachusetts, Ontario and Puerto Rico, but that has never stopped me from printing out an Oscars ballot and challenging my friends to a casual wager (or several).
With the Oscars ceremony coming up Sunday night at 7 p.m. ET on ABC (or stream it on services like Fubo), I’m making my final predictions in the major categories. I use sportsbook odds to add context to my prop sheets because they give you and your friends a starting point for making the smartest wager. If you’re not following Oscars news as closely as I do (via my Substack, which focuses on pop culture), how else will you know if you’re picking an easy win or taking a flier on a long shot?
The New York Times has more fantastic coverage and predictions for the 2025 Oscars, with in-depth reporting, interviews and insider insights. Here at The Athletic: We game.
(Analysis for best picture, best actress, best actor and best director below, with odds for every other category at the very end. As a reminder, any odds with a minus sign (-) preceding them means this is deemed the most likely outcome or the favorite. Any odds with a plus sign (+) means it’s the underdog or less likely outcome.)
Best picture odds
- “Anora”: -200
- “Conclave”: +250
- “The Brutalist”: +650
- “A Complete Unknown”: +5000
- “Emilia Pérez”: +6600
- “Wicked”: +6600
- “Dune: Part Two”: +10000
- “The Substance”: +10000
- “Nickel Boys”: +10000
- “I’m Still Here”: +10000
“Anora,” Sean Baker’s tale of a Brooklyn stripper caught up with a Russian oligarch’s son, is the favorite to win best picture Sunday night. The film’s odds have held steady at around -200, which is an implied probability of 66.67 percent — pretty high for a category that has been particularly difficult to predict this year.
The early favorite was the musical/thriller “Emilia Pérez,” which received rising backlash since hitting larger audiences (who, along with me, did not like the film), and the entire project became embroiled in controversy. Think of this film as this past season’s Miami Dolphins: big preseason favorite, collapsed early.
“The Brutalist” — a 3.5-hour marathon starring Adrien Brody as a visionary architect rebuilding his life and career in America after escaping WWII Europe — was also an early favorite. But its odds have lengthened from +225 to +650 as more awards ceremonies pass without the film receiving the top honor. I’ll predict “The Brutalist” is your Buffalo Bills pick. They put in the work, created something great, grinded to the end, saw their star become the MVP favorite, but didn’t see the reward they aimed for.
Moving in the right direction is the papal procedural “Conclave,” which was at +1600 odds on Feb. 12 and has narrowed to a +250 second-place pick. “Conclave,” to me, is the Philadelphia Eagles. Surging at just the right moment. But if I’m wrong, I’m wrong.
So far this year, “Anora” was shut out at the Golden Globes but went on to win the producers, directors and writers guilds. Wins at these guilds usually presage a win with the Academy. In fact, “Brokeback Mountain” was the only film to win all three of those guilds and not the Oscar. (That was the year that the now-reviled “Crash” won.)
But not so fast: In four of the past five years, the SAGs have given their top honor to the eventual Oscar winner. This year, that honor went to “Conclave.” It was Sunday’s SAG win that vaulted “Conclave” into second place in the odds behind “Anora.”
Will “Anora” prove to be the crown-winning Eagles or more like the Detroit Lions — dominant all season while still maintaining that underdog/everyman vibe, then heartbreakingly missing out at the end?
A note about a potential dark-horse run: The Oscars are decided through ranked-choice voting, which means that members rank their favorites, and the votes are counted in rounds of elimination. If your first candidate doesn’t get enough votes to make it through a round, your second-place vote then gets counted. That means that if the top of the field is highly varied, with many different films getting No. 1 votes, a film that gets a majority of No. 2 votes could become the sneaky winner. And that’s how I think it’s possible a movie like “Wicked” could take it. Though perhaps “The Brutalist” is a more likely vote-splitter.
If the Oscars were up to me … I’d pick “Nickel Boys” (+10000) or “The Substance” (+10000). These two films were so unique, with such specific and artistic points of view. They’re the kind of films that take you into someone else’s life and make you say, “Hey, I see myself!” or “Wow, I never knew!” Both were powerful enough to leave me sitting there for a long time after the credits finished rolling.
Best picture predictions
- Kyle Buchanan, The Projectionist at The New York Times, predicts: “Anora” (-210)
- I predict: “Conclave” (+250)
- Long shot: “Nickel Boys” (+10000)
Best actress odds
- Demi Moore (“The Substance”): -285
- Mikey Madison (“Anora”): +220
- Fernanda Torres (“I’m Still Here”): +1200
- Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”): +3300
- Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”): +3300
Odds to win Oscar for Best Actress at @BetMGM
-285: Demi Moore (The Substance)
+220: Mikey Madison (Anora)58% of money is on Madison to win pic.twitter.com/ONnKKk80sH
— John Ewing (@johnewing) February 28, 2025
Demi Moore has been riding atop the awards circuit this year for her (absolutely bonkers and fantastic) performance as an aging actress who takes a mysterious drug to become young again in “The Substance.” She has won every major award so far, except for the BAFTA and Independent Spirit, which went to Mikey Madison, the star of “Anora.” Most analysts say this is a race essentially between Moore, an industry icon, and Madison, a rising star.
Plot twist? The Times’ Buchanan predicts a late surge for Fernanda Torres of “I’m Still Here,” the story of a woman determined to learn the truth behind the disappearance of her husband, who was part of the Brazilian Labour Party. Torres is reportedly receiving a lot of votes from Academy members who are just catching up to watch the film.
Best actress predictions
- Buchanan predicts: Fernanda Torres (+1200)
- I predict: Demi Moore (-285)
- Long shot: Cynthia Erivo (+3300)
Best actor odds
- Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”): -250
- Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”): +200
- Ralph Fiennes (“Conclave”): +1400
- Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”): +3300
- Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”): +3300
Odds to win Oscar for Best Actor at @BetMGM
-250: Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
+200: Timothee Chalamet (A Complete Unknown)
+1400: Ralph Fiennes (Conclave)53% of bets are on Chalamet to win.
72% of money is on Brody. pic.twitter.com/RaBEueO5ud
— John Ewing (@johnewing) February 28, 2025
Here’s a dramatic narrative for you: The Academy has only awarded the best actor Oscar to an actor under 30 years old one time. That one 29-year-old winner? Adrien Brody for “The Pianist” in 2003. Chalamet, should he win it, would not only best Brody as this year’s favorite but would also narrowly edge him out as the youngest winner of the award ever (by only a few months).
Brody swept every major best actor award this season except the SAG. Was Chalamet’s SAG win an outlier, or is the young actor getting hot at just the right moment? Consider this: In the last 20 years, 17 of the SAG best actor winners have gone on to win the Oscar.
Best actor predictions
- Buchanan predicts: Adrien Brody (-250)
- I predict: Timothée Chalamet (+200)
- Long shot: Colman Domingo (this is who I would vote for if the Academy gave me a vote; they can call me any time) (+3300)
Best director odds
- Sean Baker (“Anora”): -220
- Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”): +160
- Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Pérez”): +2000
- Coralie Fargeat (“The Substance”): +3300
- James Mangold (“A Complete Unknown”): +3300
Sean Baker is the frontrunner for best director. Baker is the auteur’s auteur, using his acceptance speeches to champion independent filmmaking. For those who aren’t in the lingo, an “auteur director” is a film director who is considered the main creative force behind the movie, putting their stamp on every aspect of the production with a distinct personal style. Think of Sean Baker as, say, the Sean McVay of filmmakers.
This race is essentially between Baker and Brady Corbet, who directed “The Brutalist.” They’ve each taken the prize at the major awards ceremonies thus far.
I could see Coralie Fargeat being a dark-horse contender. “The Substance” is a wildly imaginative, unique vision from this female filmmaker — worthy of the top award.
Best director predictions
- Buchanan predicts: Sean Baker (-220)
- I predict: Sean Baker (-220)
- Long shot: Coralie Fargeat (+3300)
Odds for every other category
Odds from BetMGM as of Friday evening.
Best supporting actor
- Kieran Culkin (“A Real Pain”): -5000
- Edward Norton (“A Completely Unknown”): +1800
- Yura Borisov (“Anora”): +2000
- Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”): +2000
- Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”): +2500
Best supporting actress
- Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”): -3000
- Ariana Grande (“Wicked”): +800
- Isabella Rossellini (“Conclave”): +1400
- Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”): +1800
- Monica Barbaro (“A Complete Unknown”): +3300
Best international film
- “I’m Still Here”: -220
- “Emilia Pérez”: +155
- “The Seed of the Sacred Fig”: +1600
- “Flow”: +2500
- “The Girl with the Needle”: +5000
Best adapted screenplay
- “Conclave”: -1200
- “Nickel Boys”: +700
- “Emilia Pérez”: +1100
- “A Complete Unknown”: +2000
- “Sing Sing”: +2500
Best original screenplay
- “Anora”: -250
- “The Substance”: +325
- “A Real Pain”: +450
- “The Brutalist”: +1400
- “September 5”: +3300
Best editing
- “Conclave”: -200
- “Anora”: +200
- “The Brutalist”: +700
- “Wicked”: +1600
- “Emilia Pérez”: +3300
Best animated feature film
- “The Wild Robot”: -350
- “Flow”: +230
- “Wallace & Grommit: Vengeance Most Fowl”: +1800
- “Inside Out 2”: +2500
- “Memoir of a Snail”: +2500
Best animated short film
- “Wander to Wonder”: -165
- “Yuck!”: +200
- “Beautiful Men”: +450
- “Magic Candies”: +1400
- “In the Shadow of the Cypress”: +1600
Best production design
- “Wicked”: -550
- “Nosferatu”: +500
- “The Brutalist”: +800
- “Conclave”: +900
- “Dune: Part Two”: +3300
Best costume design
- “Wicked”: -2000
- “Conclave”: +700
- “Nosferatu”: +1400
- “A Complete Unknown”: +2500
- “Gladiator II”: +3300
Best documentary feature film
- “No Other Land”: -155
- “Porcelain War”: +120
- “Sugarcane”: +1100
- “Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat”: +2000
- “Black Box Diaries”: +2000
Best documentary short
- “I Am Ready, Warden”: +110
- “The Only Girl in the Orchestra”: +150
- “Incident”: +350
- “Death By Numbers”: +500
- “Instruments of a Beating Heart”: +3300
Best live-action short film
- “A Lien”: -110
- “The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent”: +150
- “Anjua”: +400
- “I’m Not a Robot”: +1000
- “The Last Ranger”: +2000
Best makeup and hairstyling
- “The Substance”: -2000
- “Wicked”: +700
- “Nosferatu”: +1400
- “Emilia Pérez”: +2500
- “A Different Man”: +3300
Best original score
- “The Brutalist”: -400
- “The Wild Robot”: +400
- “Conclave”: +800
- “Emilia Pérez”: +1400
- “Wicked”: +2200
Best original song
- El Mal (“Emilia Pérez”): -250
- The Journey (“The Six Triple Eight”): +300
- Mi Camino (“Emilia Pérez”): +700
- Never Too Late (“Elton John: Never Too Late”): +900
- Like a Bird (“Sing Sing”): +1600
Best sound
- “Dune: Part Two”: -300
- “A Complete Unknown”: +225
- “Wicked”: +500
- “Emilia Pérez”: +5000
- “The Wild Robot”: +5000
Best visual effects
- “Dune: Part Two”: -1000
- “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”: +400
- “Wicked”: +2000
- “Better Man”: +2500
- “Alien: Romulus”: +3300
Best cinematography
- “The Brutalist”: -400
- “Nosferatu”: +450
- “Dune: Part Two”: +600
- “Maria”: +1800
- “Emilia Pérez”: +6600
(Photo of Timothée Chalamet: Valerie Macon / AFP via Getty Images)
