OPINION: Political Lessons From President George W. Bush (Part II)

In my prior column, I discussed some political lessons Republicans could learn from the second term of President George W. Bush. I wrote that for governing reasons, it was important for a Republican president to avoid the second-term political collapse that happened to President Bush and that, to do so, a Republican president, e.g., Donald Trump, needed to follow a bifurcated strategy to keep his polling support up among both the GOP party base and with independents. 

Regarding the GOP base, I advised that a Republican president needs to avoid violating the following crucial electoral maxims:

1. A Second Term Republican President Should Never Abandon the Party Base on Important Issues;
2. A Second Term Republican President Should Never Surrender on the Political Battlefield;
3. A Second Term Republican President Should Never Fall for the Sweet Nothings of the MSM and the Democrat Establishment; and
4. A Second Term Republican President Should Also Beware the (Similar) Sweet Nothings of the GOP Establishment and more liberal Republicans.

Now, it has been less than a month since President Trump’s second term began, but let’s see how things are going (while understanding that any evaluations we make are still incredibly early). 

At RealClearPolitics, President Trump has an average net approval score of 49 percent to 48 percent. We know, based on the election results from 2024, 2020, and 2016, that Trump’s polling is almost certainly underestimated by around two percent. Thus, he is definitely in positive territory and presumably still has majority support with the registered voting public. 

Trump’s mission is to avoid dropping into the low 40’s, and staying there consistently, or even falling into the 30’s, as happened to Bush.

Abandoning the GOP Base on a Prominent Issue 

A Republican president should never abandon a prominent issue important to a significant portion of his political base. Mind you, this doesn’t have to be a majority of the GOP base; losing support among a significant minority is also dangerous.

So far, Trump and his administration have been active on many different fronts. (NOTE: This evaluation of the issues focuses solely on their political importance, and not an evaluation of their merits.) The more prominent issue areas include:

• Border & Immigration = The Trump administration has begun to implement its tough border policies and its crackdown on illegal immigrants. The GOP base likes this.
• Democrats in the Trump administration = Trump chose two prominent Democrats to serve in his cabinet, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard, which has been controversial with some in the GOP establishment. Both Democrats supported Trump in the 2024 election. The DNI position is pretty worthless; Gabbard’s predecessor, John Ratcliffe, voluntarily agreed to serve under her as CIA Director. Kennedy’s position is a powerful position, however. But Republican presidents routinely choose a token Democrat (or two) for their cabinets, so this is unlikely to become a real problem, if Kennedy is supervised by more traditional Republicans.
• DOGE: Cutting Government Spending = While the MSM is chock full of sob stories about the cuts to the federal government that DOGE is making, this agenda item is akin to preaching to the choir for a Republican administration.
• Israel & Antisemitism = The Trump administration has unleashed the chains on Israel and on the Justice Department, put there by the antisemites in the Biden administration. This will allow Israel to go after the crazed antisemites among the Arab nations and the Justice Department to prosecute those crazed antisemites attacking Jews and other Zionists on U.S. streets. This is a tremendously popular issue with the GOP base.
• Government Firings = The Trump administration, both through DOGE and otherwise, is firing and sometimes replacing many federal workers. While the MSM is chock full of sob stories about these activities, this is, once again, preaching to the choir for a Republican administration. 
• Tariffs = Donald Trump is a big fan of former President McKinley and his use of tariffs. This issue does split the GOP base; many Republicans do subscribe to Reagan’s Republican doctrine, which preaches the benefits of free or freer trade. (Although other recent Republicans, including George W. Bush and Reagan himself, did occasionally implement tariffs.) So far, Trump has largely talked the talk, threatening tariffs as a cudgel towards enemies (like China) or friends (like Canada) whom he feels are playing unfairly with the U.S. But he has mostly avoided walking the walk, i.e., implementing these tariffs. This is an issue he does need to be careful with, however.
• Tax Cuts = The Trump administration is pushing forward with its plans to renew its prior tax cuts. Once again, this is traditional fare for a Republican administration.
• Trans Issue = Until recently, every American voter, conservative, liberal and moderate alike, believed that men were men and women were women. There was no appetite for allowing a man to proclaim that he was a woman and demand that he be allowed to participate in women’s sports (where he could steal money from women or even endanger them) or use the women’s bathroom (where he could intimidate women) or that confused minors should be allowed to cut off their body parts. The GOP base still believes this.
• Ukraine = Everyone is talking about the recent incident at the White House, where Ukrainian President Zelensky – as has been reported on by my colleagues at Red State – tried to publicly embarrass the Trump administration. This was a yuge own goal; these White House press conferences are supposed to be about praising the other guy and signing the d@*n agreement. President Trump is, by all accounts, very upset with this behavior and the earlier strange behavior from Zelensky, like his actual participation in the 2024 election. (And YES, Zelensky DID join an obvious campaign stop for the Harris campaign, which is unprecedented.) Nevertheless, the GOP includes a large number of pro-Ukrainian voters, so President Trump needs to be careful about not overreacting to this, and making sure he does not burn his bridges with these GOP base voters. Luckily, the Ukrainian government probably understands that Zelensky will have to make nice with the administration, so my prediction is this will eventually be smoothed over. 

To be continued in part III.