New Edmonton Oilers acquisition Matt Savoie could be a big story for fans this winter.
If he spends 40 or more games with the Bakersfield Condors during the 2024-25 season, he is likely to produce an offensive season to remember.
The AHL is a league that develops future two-way forwards, most NHL defencemen and starting goaltenders, and very few impact scorers.
Why?
Great offensive players go right to the NHL, flying right over AHL cities on their way to the world’s best league.
Savoie represents that rare player who is an impact talent, NHL-ready or close, who arrives in pro hockey with no jobs available on the big club.
Barring injury, there is no open spot for him on the Oilers roster.
Prepare for a lot of goals.
Impact junior
Savoie scored at extreme levels in junior (WHL) one year ago, leading the league in points per game (2.09).
There aren’t many WHL players over the last decade who fit this profile: A points-per-game total over 2.00, age 19, while facing an uphill battle for regular NHL work the following season.
There is one active comparable.
Logan Stankoven, who was chosen by the Dallas Stars in the second round of the 2021 draft, is the owner of a similar profile.
He just completed his 20-year-old season in pro hockey, giving us a chance to examine a reasonable possible outcome for Savoie in 2024-25.
Stankoven scored at a 2.02 clip in his final WHL season (2022-23) with the Kamloops Blazers.
Entering pro hockey with the Stars, the depth chart at his position (he is a RH centre who played mostly wing when in the NHL last season) was populated by productive veterans.
Stankoven was able to find his way to the NHL in 2023-24, after a strong showing in the AHL for the Texas Stars.
Pro hockey
In his debut season in pro hockey, Stankoven produced 24-33-57 in 47 games with the Texas Stars. That’s 1.21 points per game, making him the top age-20 AHL forward in terms of offence one year ago. He ranked third overall in points per game in the AHL for the season.
Once recalled to the NHL, Stankoven scored well (6-8-14 in 24 games) and earned almost 15 minutes a night playing time. He posted 1.93 points per 60 at five-on-five scoring, and enjoyed a 63 percent goal share (62 percent expected) in the NHL as a rookie.
Even more impressive, he played in all 19 playoff games for the Stars, once again producing at five-on-five. He delivered 1.5 points per 60 in the metric and a 65 percent goal share.
Using comparables to project a player to the next level is interesting and useful.
Stankoven’s pro debut was so impressive, it’s wise to temper expectations for Savoie. Still, the junior comp is true, so reasonable expectations should have Savoie making headline news in the AHL for much of the season.
Oilers WHL to AHL transition
Since 2000, the Oilers have graduated many players from the WHL to the AHL after age 19.
Savoie’s outstanding final season in the junior league stands above all notable Oilers prospect forwards since 2000. Here’s the list, with points per game at 19 in the WHL, and then in the AHL and NHL at age 20.
| Player | 19 WHL | 20 AHL | 20 NHL |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Matt Savoie |
2.09 |
||
|
Jordan Eberle |
1.86 |
DNP |
0.62 |
|
Kailer Yamamoto |
1.6 |
0.67 |
0.12 |
|
Jarret Stoll |
1.4 |
0.71 |
0.25 |
|
Tyler Benson |
1.19 |
0.97 |
DNP |
|
Tyler Pitlick |
1.11 |
0.37 |
DNP |
|
Reid Schaefer |
1.11 |
0.33 |
DNP |
|
Jujhar Khaira |
0.73 |
0.2 |
DNP |
Looking back at almost 25 years of young WHL players graduating to pro, it’s clear that Savoie towers over the group who landed in the AHL at age 20.
It would be a stretch to suggest Savoie belongs in the elite group who bolted from the WHL to the NHL as teenagers (Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) but the Jordan Eberle numbers here offer a possible trajectory that has as good a chance to be true as the Stankoven comp.
James Stefan
James Stefan is another WHL grad who turns 21 in August and is a pure shooter.
He scored at a point-per-game level in the junior league at 19, then erupted to score 50 goals and 101 points in 67 games for the Portland Winterhawks last season.
Stefan led the lead with a remarkable 354 shots on goal, over five shots per game.
He won’t get the same opportunities in pro hockey made available in the WHL. He could play some of the season in the ECHL, the league below the AHL.
Whenever he arrives in Bakersfield, the coaching staff will have another intriguing goal-scoring option.
A guess at the right-wing depth chart in Bakersfield at this time would have young winger Matvey Petrov and veteran Raphael Lavoie occupying the top spots, with veterans Drake Caggiula and James Hamblin also in play.
Savoie is a RH centre, but could also play on the wing in front of Stefan.
Bottom line
Both men are reasonable bets, and along with OHL grad Brady Stonehouse give the Oilers young and inexpensive goal-scoring forwards entering the system.
When Kailer Yamamoto graduated to pro, the Oilers pushed him to the NHL as a regular early on. When he was recalled at the end of 2019, the young winger found a spot on a line with Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins.
That line ignited Yamamoto’s career, as he scored 11-15-26 in 27 games before the pandemic hit in March 2020.
Combined with the fact Yamamoto played a little NHL hockey as a teenager, the early success meant the clock started on elevated cap numbers for the young winger. By the time he was traded in June 2023, the organization could no longer justify the investment.
In the case of Savoie, his teenage seasons are done. He enters pro hockey at 20 with three full seasons of $886,667 salary annually plus the potential for an additional $1 million annually in NHL performance bonuses.
The best comps for him are Stankoven and Eberle. Stankoven spent less than four months in the AHL, Eberle played 54 games in the league with none of those coming in his age-20 season.
If Savoie remains in the AHL all year, he has a chance to put up numbers fans haven’t seen since the 1980s.
If the Oilers start him in Bakersfield, and it looks like this is the plan based on the current depth chart, prepare for eye-popping numbers from Savoie and calls for the young man to debut in Edmonton on a skill line.
He has special talent, but will not have an NHL job entering camp.
It’s a rare thing in Oilers history, unprecedented (save for Eberle) in the cap era.
(Photo of Matt Savoie: Jonathan Kozub / Getty Images)
