Notre Dame mailbag: Was that the worst loss in Irish history?

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Welcome to the Notre Dame mailbag/therapy session.

Take a seat on the couch so we can get started.

You had a record number of questions this week, which makes sense considering the breakneck recalibration of this season after what happened last Saturday. How bad was the loss to Northern Illinois? Can the Irish get Riley Leonard right? Have the receivers underachieved? And is Notre Dame football simply repeating its recent history?

Let’s get started.

(Submitted questions have been lightly edited for clarity and length.)

Was that the worst loss in Notre Dame history? Some Brian Kelly, Charlie Weis and Tyrone Willingham losses were bad, but none of them came as the No. 5-ranked team in the country. — Chris K.

Misery is in the eye of the beholder, Chris.

But if you really want to go down this road, we need to define “worst.” Is it losing as a big favorite? Does it wreck the season? Put the head coach under new scrutiny? Last weekend may ultimately check all three boxes. But so far, it’s checked only the first and third. Losing as a four-touchdown favorite to a MAC school didn’t knock Notre Dame out of the Top 25 or eliminate it from College Football Playoff contention.

And yet.

Losing to Northern Illinois could undercut Marcus Freeman as Notre Dame’s head coach. A fan base patient with Freeman as he learned on the job was ready for him to apply that knowledge to winning. It hasn’t worked out that way as well as Freeman (or anyone else at Notre Dame) wants.

But the worst loss? In 24 seasons on the beat, I’ve covered losses ranging from the Bush Push against USC to the end of the 43-game winning streak against Navy. Some have been epic battles. Some have been dark comedies. This is a particularly sadistic exercise, but you asked for it. These games are listed in chronological order, not according to the pain index.

Boston College 14, No. 4 Notre Dame 7 (2002): Notre Dame is the talk of college football in Willingham’s debut season, starting 8-0 with an upset of Florida State in Tallahassee. The next week, Notre Dame takes the field in neon green jerseys. The offense bombs, and Notre Dame finishes the game with a walk-on quarterback. Willingham begins a two-year decline. Also, it’s Boston College.

Georgia Tech 33, Notre Dame 3 (2007): Notre Dame was bad, but we didn’t know how bad. By halftime, you knew. The season had no hope. The Irish finished 3-9, losing their first five games by an average of 24 points. To make matters worse, Charlie Weis is so impressed with Georgia Tech that he hires defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta the next offseason.

Syracuse 24, Notre Dame 23 (2008): The Irish inexplicably lose at home to a Syracuse team that had already fired Greg Robinson and went 3-9. Syracuse quarterback Cam Dantley, son of former Notre Dame All-American basketball star Adrian Dantley, throws the game-winning touchdown. The student section throws snowballs at the team.

No. 2 Alabama 42, No. 1 Notre Dame 14 (2012): An epic season ends with the realization that Notre Dame is nowhere close to the top of college football, despite playing for a national championship. The game is over at halftime, leaving the Irish to limp toward the finish. Kelly interviewing with the Philadelphia Eagles immediately afterward drives home the hurt.

Northern Illinois 16, No. 5 Notre Dame 14 (2024): The stock market crash of good will is hard to overstate. After an offseason of unprecedented investment, Freeman’s win at Texas A&M is forfeited against Northern Illinois, the first-ever loss to a MAC school. Notre Dame can play this game off the list during the next two months. But it will be hard to forget.

And before you ask, none of these games approach Notre Dame losing to Boston College in 1993 the week after beating No. 1 Florida State. That remains the gold standard for worst losses and will never be touched, which is probably for the best.

This is a Ship of Theseus question. With all new players and coaches, why does it feel like I’m watching the same struggles as I was eight years ago? … Why does it feel like we have the same struggles against low-mid tier opponents? Is it my recency bias as a fan? Or is it just that “Winning is Hard,” as they say? — Patrick F.

There’s some truth that winning is hard, but it’s not that hard when you’ve got the better roster and superior resources. You just have to know what to do with them. Freeman is still figuring that out in an era of college football when there’s less patience, more roster turnover and more postseason access than ever before with the 12-team Playoff. This is a push-all-chips-to-the-middle kind of season for Notre Dame. Now it feels like the Irish are hoping for an ace on the river.

Not ideal.

For the record, Kelly went 42-1 at Notre Dame when the Irish were top 10 (in the AP Poll) and facing an unranked opponent. Lou Holtz went 49-6. Weis went 8-1. Willingham went 4-1, and Bob Davie went 1-2.

Freeman is 2-2.

Notre Dame has suffered some truly catastrophic losses (see above), but it’s never lost to Marshall and Northern Illinois in a two-year span. Some of the Freeman era has felt similar to Kelly’s, like needing a failed Hail Mary to beat Cal or getting an unlikely quarterback scramble on fourth down to beat Duke. As wild as those games were, they weren’t that different from beating Virginia Tech (2019 and 2021), Florida State (2021), Northwestern (2018), Virginia (2015), Ball State (2018), Vanderbilt (2018), Pittsburgh (2018) or Toledo (2021).

By Kelly’s final five seasons, he’d gotten Notre Dame to a place where it believed it would win those games, unlike some of the ways he inexplicably lost them earlier in his tenure. Hello, Tulsa and Michigan State (Little Giants).

Freeman doesn’t have Notre Dame in a place where the program can take the field with absolute faith it will win the game before it kicks off.

As for eight years ago, Freeman can’t afford any other parallels to 2016.

For the record, the only time Kelly lost as a top-10 team with Notre Dame against an unranked opponent was at Texas that season.

Postgame, you made the point you believed Leonard is the guy moving forward. This makes sense given the resources and hype of the transfer. Many fans naturally have doubts. What would have to happen to see a change at quarterback? — Zachary B.

To clarify, I believe Leonard should be Notre Dame’s starting quarterback if he’s healthy enough to be a true dual threat. If Leonard can’t run, which either he couldn’t or wouldn’t after getting slammed to the turf just before halftime, that’s when the math changes. All nine of Leonard’s rushing attempts against Northern Illinois came before that 14-yard sack when Leonard appeared to hurt his left arm/shoulder. He didn’t run the ball once in the second half. Notre Dame won’t win many games with Leonard if he can’t threaten defenses with his legs.

Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock was pressed on Leonard’s availability ahead of this week’s game at Purdue after practice on Tuesday and refused to acknowledge multiple reports that Leonard had suffered a labrum tear in his non-throwing shoulder against Northern Illinois.

“I have no indication right now that he can’t be the runner we need him to be,” Denbrock said.

For what it’s worth, Freeman said he didn’t consider going to Steve Angeli last Saturday, regardless of Leonard’s health or play.

All that being said, Leonard has been Notre Dame’s starting quarterback for all of two games. If Notre Dame wants to play ball control and attempt to bully opponents on the ground, Leonard is an ideal quarterback. That’s how Notre Dame played it at Texas A&M. But if Notre Dame has to beat teams through the air, things gets a lot more murky.

Notre Dame ranks No. 130 nationally in pass efficiency, last among Power 4 teams. It’s No. 110 in scoring offense and 64th among 68 Power 4 teams. The Irish are also dead last in 20-yard completions (1) and touchdown passes (0). Nothing about the pass game has worked to date, but rewatch the game and you’ll see receivers or tight ends who are schemed open. Leonard just has to trust them, which only comes with time.

You don’t create that time by benching Leonard.

If Notre Dame’s coaching staff can’t get something better out of Leonard quickly, then it might have to make a change. But if that happens, that may be more a failure of the staff than the quarterback himself.

In the offseason we were sold that the receivers room is the most improved on the team and to expect big things. Were we oversold? — Mchale G.

It’s too soon to return a verdict on that position, but it’s worth noting the No. 1 receiver to start the season last year is probably the No. 5 wideout on the squad right now.

The group is certainly better, but how much better is hard to tell after two games, including one where the game plan was not to pass because Notre Dame didn’t know if its offensive line would hold up.

Safe to say Beaux Collins has been a hit. Jaden Greathouse will be and already would have been one if he didn’t drop that Leonard pass last week. As for the rest of the group, Jordan Faison has already been sidelined by that ankle injury, Kris Mitchell has yet to click and Jayden Harrison is stuck as the second-team slot behind Greathouse. That leaves Jayden Thomas, who was indispensable last season but is just a rotation player now.

Yes, it sounds strange to compliment a position group without a touchdown, but it hasn’t had many (any?) opportunities to score through two games. All offseason it felt like Notre Dame had six No. 2 receivers more than it had any No. 1 in the group. It still feels that way. And that’s a major improvement from last season.

What’s the realistic read on Freeman’s job security? If this year goes sideways, is he coaching for his job next year? — Eric D.

This is the most damaging part of last weekend for Freeman from a longevity perspective.

The win at Texas A&M not only put Notre Dame on an apparent glide path to the Playoff, it should have pointed Freeman toward a contract extension to go with it. Beating the Aggies was exactly the kind of progress Freeman needed to show in his third season. And losing to Northern Illinois feels like a return to square one, just without the benefit of the doubt that comes with being a first-time head coach.

If Notre Dame makes the CFP in either of the next two seasons, it makes sense to extend Freeman’s original six-year contract. If he doesn’t, it doesn’t. How athletic director Pete Bevacqua would handle that scenario with a head coach nearing the end of his contract is hard to answer.

Jim Harbaugh said the offensive line is the only position that does not depend on other units for success, and all other units depend on them to have success. I understand the O-Line must have dramatic improvement for this team to achieve its goals, but how realistic is it to assume a group this young will get there in time? — Adam B.

Every sign the offensive line would struggle this season was there before Texas A&M, and you could argue the position overperformed at College Station. It didn’t decisively lose its matchup. But that’s different from being good enough to be the foundation for a CFP team. Freeman said Leonard doesn’t trust the pocket enough, which means he doesn’t trust his offensive line, even when the group is providing a clean pocket. Leonard can scramble himself into pressure too often because he’s not comfortable. Even on the play where Leonard apparently gets injured, there’s a pocket formed and the quarterback leaves it. There’s not much tackle Aamil Wagner can do at that point.

For the season, Leonard is 2-of-8 for 13 yards on throws outside the pocket, plus that 14-yard sack. While protections of Leonard have been middling at best, the quarterback can help the line by standing in and throwing on time from there. That might go against Harbaugh’s position on line play, but there’s a lot Notre Dame can do to help this young group survive.

Of course, is survival enough to make the CFP or win in it? That’s a bigger question.

(Photo of Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard: Michael Clubb / USA Today)